This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36956418

The article has changed 49 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 37 Version 38
Brexit Britain: What has actually happened so far? Brexit Britain: What has actually happened so far?
(14 days later)
The UK may have voted on 23 June to leave the European Union but it is not yet clear what the country's path to Brexit will actually mean.The UK may have voted on 23 June to leave the European Union but it is not yet clear what the country's path to Brexit will actually mean.
Here we highlight the latest developments following the vote.Here we highlight the latest developments following the vote.
EconomyEconomy
Many economists prior to the referendum had been predicting an immediate and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country vote to leave the EU. But so far these predictions have not come to pass.Many economists prior to the referendum had been predicting an immediate and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country vote to leave the EU. But so far these predictions have not come to pass.
Latest figures show the economy grew by 0.5% in the three months after the Brexit vote, powered by the UK's services sector.Latest figures show the economy grew by 0.5% in the three months after the Brexit vote, powered by the UK's services sector.
This was slower than the 0.7% rate in the previous quarter, but stronger than analysts' estimates of about 0.3%.This was slower than the 0.7% rate in the previous quarter, but stronger than analysts' estimates of about 0.3%.
However, there does seem to have been a decline in confidence in the small business sector. The first survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote showed more small and medium-sized businesses were pessimistic about the future than positive for the first time in four years. In its report for the Autumn Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded its growth forecast to 2.1% in 2016, from 2.0%, but downgraded to 1.4% in 2017, from 2.2%.
Meanwhile, international body the OECD has gone back on its warning that the UK would suffer immediately from a Brexit vote and has revised its 2016 GDP growth forecasts for the UK slightly upwards from 1.7% to 1.8%. Government finances were forecast to be £122bn worse off in the period until 2021 than had been forecast in March's Budget.
However, it has cut the forecast for next year from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the future path of policy and the reaction of the economy remains very high and risks remain to the downside."
The Bank of England has raised its forecast for economic growth next year to 1.4% from 0.8%, but cut expectations for 2018 to 1.5% from 1.8%.The Bank of England has raised its forecast for economic growth next year to 1.4% from 0.8%, but cut expectations for 2018 to 1.5% from 1.8%.
And the heads of two major Wall Street companies have warned that the UK financial services industry could be damaged by Brexit. Rob Kapito, head of one of the world's largest investment houses Blackrock, said there was "a lot of concern" in the financial community, while the president of investment bank Morgan Stanley, Colm Kelleher, said his bank's immediate concern was over whether to invest further in the UK.
Consumer confidence has returned to pre-referendum levels in September with shoppers shrugging off concerns and continuing to spend. They have been helped by higher wages, low inflation, and the Bank of England's record low interest rates, according to GfK.Consumer confidence has returned to pre-referendum levels in September with shoppers shrugging off concerns and continuing to spend. They have been helped by higher wages, low inflation, and the Bank of England's record low interest rates, according to GfK.
Its consumer confidence index is back to its pre-Brexit vote levels in September, jumping six points in its biggest monthly rise since June 2015.Its consumer confidence index is back to its pre-Brexit vote levels in September, jumping six points in its biggest monthly rise since June 2015.
This continued consumer spending is also borne out by UK retail sales figures. Sales have generally been rising for the past three years, and in August they were up 6.2% from the same month last year. "Overall the figures do not suggest any major fall in post-referendum consumer confidence," the ONS said.This continued consumer spending is also borne out by UK retail sales figures. Sales have generally been rising for the past three years, and in August they were up 6.2% from the same month last year. "Overall the figures do not suggest any major fall in post-referendum consumer confidence," the ONS said.
Inflation has gone up, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 1% in September. Raw material prices have risen, partly as a result of the falling pound, but the ONS said there was "little sign of this feeding through to consumer prices yet". Inflation has gone up from 0.5% in June, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) at 1% in October. Raw material prices have risen, partly as a result of the falling pound, but the ONS said there was "little sign of this feeding through to consumer prices yet".
Timing of the official start of Brexit processTiming of the official start of Brexit process
Prime Minister Theresa May - who replaced David Cameron after he quit in the aftermath of the referendum - announced at the start of October her deadline for beginning the formal Brexit process.Prime Minister Theresa May - who replaced David Cameron after he quit in the aftermath of the referendum - announced at the start of October her deadline for beginning the formal Brexit process.
She said that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which starts two years of formal negotiations, will be triggered before the end of March 2017. In practice this means the UK will be out of the EU by the summer of 2019.She said that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which starts two years of formal negotiations, will be triggered before the end of March 2017. In practice this means the UK will be out of the EU by the summer of 2019.
A legal challenge - to force the government to give MPs a say before Article 50 is triggered - was approved by the High Court. But the government - which argues its mandate comes from the referendum result - has appealed. The case will be heard in the Supreme Court in December.A legal challenge - to force the government to give MPs a say before Article 50 is triggered - was approved by the High Court. But the government - which argues its mandate comes from the referendum result - has appealed. The case will be heard in the Supreme Court in December.
CurrencyCurrency
The pound fell dramatically after the Brexit vote at the end of June.The pound fell dramatically after the Brexit vote at the end of June.
It declined to a three-year low against the euro following Theresa May's announcement that the UK would begin formal Brexit negotiations by the end of March.It declined to a three-year low against the euro following Theresa May's announcement that the UK would begin formal Brexit negotiations by the end of March.
On 10 November the pound was worth $1.25, up slightly following Donald Trump's election victory. On 24 November the pound was worth $1.25, up slightly since Donald Trump's election victory.
Against the euro, on 20 October it was worth about €1.15. A year earlier it was worth €1.41. Against the euro, on 24 November it was worth about €1.18. A year earlier it was worth €1.42.
The currency's continuing weakness has been accentuated by the cut in interest rates and the Bank of England's economic stimulus measures.The currency's continuing weakness has been accentuated by the cut in interest rates and the Bank of England's economic stimulus measures.
The fall in the pound helps exporters but it makes foreign holidays more expensive for British tourists and it has also increased import costs for manufacturers (see Trade below).The fall in the pound helps exporters but it makes foreign holidays more expensive for British tourists and it has also increased import costs for manufacturers (see Trade below).
The falling pound triggered a stand-off between Tesco and its biggest supplier, Unilever, which wanted to increase prices in the UK to compensate for drop in value. This led Tesco to stop selling some of his most famous brands - including Marmite - to online shoppers.The falling pound triggered a stand-off between Tesco and its biggest supplier, Unilever, which wanted to increase prices in the UK to compensate for drop in value. This led Tesco to stop selling some of his most famous brands - including Marmite - to online shoppers.
However, one beneficiary of cheaper sterling has been the UK's own tourism sector, as a weaker pound makes Britain a cheaper destination for overseas tourists. The travel analytics firm ForwardKeys says flight bookings to the UK rose 7.1% after the vote.However, one beneficiary of cheaper sterling has been the UK's own tourism sector, as a weaker pound makes Britain a cheaper destination for overseas tourists. The travel analytics firm ForwardKeys says flight bookings to the UK rose 7.1% after the vote.
Caissa Touristic, a tour operator specialising in Chinese travel to Europe, says it saw a 20% increase in enquiries and bookings for the UK this summer compared with the same period last year, while Irish no-frills airline Ryanair says it has seen a rise in overseas visitors travelling to London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Scotland.Caissa Touristic, a tour operator specialising in Chinese travel to Europe, says it saw a 20% increase in enquiries and bookings for the UK this summer compared with the same period last year, while Irish no-frills airline Ryanair says it has seen a rise in overseas visitors travelling to London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Scotland.
Interest ratesInterest rates
Since the vote the Bank of England has taken a number of steps to boost the UK economy. It cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in August - the first reduction in the cost of borrowing since 2009 and taking UK rates to a new record low.Since the vote the Bank of England has taken a number of steps to boost the UK economy. It cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in August - the first reduction in the cost of borrowing since 2009 and taking UK rates to a new record low.
The Bank left its main interest rate at 0.25% in November.The Bank left its main interest rate at 0.25% in November.
The Bank has also announced a huge extension of its quantitative easing programme by an extra £70bn, and a £100bn scheme to force banks to pass on the low interest rate to households and businesses.The Bank has also announced a huge extension of its quantitative easing programme by an extra £70bn, and a £100bn scheme to force banks to pass on the low interest rate to households and businesses.
One effect of the interest rate cut is that it has exacerbated the growing pension funds deficit because of falling bond yields. As yields fall it reduces the incomes pension funds get from their investments.One effect of the interest rate cut is that it has exacerbated the growing pension funds deficit because of falling bond yields. As yields fall it reduces the incomes pension funds get from their investments.
NegotiationsNegotiations
Mrs May has met EU leaders including Germany's Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande, but formal negotiations on the UK's departure from, and its future relationship with, the EU have yet to start. EU leaders have said Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty must be triggered before negotiations can begin.Mrs May has met EU leaders including Germany's Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande, but formal negotiations on the UK's departure from, and its future relationship with, the EU have yet to start. EU leaders have said Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty must be triggered before negotiations can begin.
The government has not yet set out in detail what it wants from the talks, with reported differences between key figures on the balance between free trade and immigration curbs.The government has not yet set out in detail what it wants from the talks, with reported differences between key figures on the balance between free trade and immigration curbs.
Mrs May has faced repeated calls to set out what she wants Brexit to look like, but has refused, saying there will be "no running commentary".Mrs May has faced repeated calls to set out what she wants Brexit to look like, but has refused, saying there will be "no running commentary".
Former French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier has been appointed by the European Commission to lead the negotiations.Former French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier has been appointed by the European Commission to lead the negotiations.
Hate crimeHate crime
According to Home Office figures, racist or religious abuse incidents recorded by police in England and Wales jumped 41% in the month after the UK voted to quit the EU.According to Home Office figures, racist or religious abuse incidents recorded by police in England and Wales jumped 41% in the month after the UK voted to quit the EU.
There were 3,886 such crimes logged in July 2015, rising to 5,468 in July this year, it said.There were 3,886 such crimes logged in July 2015, rising to 5,468 in July this year, it said.
The sharp increase declined in August but has "remained at a higher level than prior to the EU referendum".The sharp increase declined in August but has "remained at a higher level than prior to the EU referendum".
The number of hate crimes overall in the year 2015-16 were up 19% on the previous year.The number of hate crimes overall in the year 2015-16 were up 19% on the previous year.
Police have also said reported hate crime rose by 57% in the four days after the referendum.Police have also said reported hate crime rose by 57% in the four days after the referendum.
It's impossible to tell to what extent the spike was about a rise in reporting and to what extent it was about a rise in actual incidents. What we do know is that most hate crimes typically go unreported. The government has announced a plan to tackle hate crime in England and Wales and police handling of such incidents will be reviewed.It's impossible to tell to what extent the spike was about a rise in reporting and to what extent it was about a rise in actual incidents. What we do know is that most hate crimes typically go unreported. The government has announced a plan to tackle hate crime in England and Wales and police handling of such incidents will be reviewed.
As the latest figures were published on 13 October, the National Police Chiefs' Council said the number of hate crime incidents had fallen from the post-referendum spike.As the latest figures were published on 13 October, the National Police Chiefs' Council said the number of hate crime incidents had fallen from the post-referendum spike.
House pricesHouse prices
Uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote failed to hit house buying in the UK, figures suggest, with a slight rise in transactions in August.Uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote failed to hit house buying in the UK, figures suggest, with a slight rise in transactions in August.
A total of 109,630 properties were bought in the UK during the month, a very slight rise on a year earlier, HM Revenue and Customs data showed.A total of 109,630 properties were bought in the UK during the month, a very slight rise on a year earlier, HM Revenue and Customs data showed.
The Nationwide said that its latest figures show that annual house price inflation has fallen, from 5.6% in August to 5.3% in September. Between August and September, prices rose by just 0.3%, half the 0.6% rise in the previous month.The Nationwide said that its latest figures show that annual house price inflation has fallen, from 5.6% in August to 5.3% in September. Between August and September, prices rose by just 0.3%, half the 0.6% rise in the previous month.
However, the number of homes for sale is at near 30-year lows, which is why the pace of house price growth has remained broadly stable. It's a view backed up by Bank of England figures showing the number of new mortgages being approved by banks and building societies falling to its lowest for a year and a half in July.However, the number of homes for sale is at near 30-year lows, which is why the pace of house price growth has remained broadly stable. It's a view backed up by Bank of England figures showing the number of new mortgages being approved by banks and building societies falling to its lowest for a year and a half in July.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) says demand among home buyers has seen a modest recovery following "post-referendum jitters".The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) says demand among home buyers has seen a modest recovery following "post-referendum jitters".
It said buyer demand rose for the first time in seven months in September.It said buyer demand rose for the first time in seven months in September.
The above chart from Rics shows that on balance their respondents expect prices to fall over the next three months, while they expect them to rise over a 12-month period.The above chart from Rics shows that on balance their respondents expect prices to fall over the next three months, while they expect them to rise over a 12-month period.
MigrationMigration
All the figures on numbers of people coming to the UK date from before the Brexit vote happened.All the figures on numbers of people coming to the UK date from before the Brexit vote happened.
In the year to March net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to the UK for at least a year and those leaving - remained at near record levels, at 327,000. But this was slightly down on the previous year.In the year to March net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to the UK for at least a year and those leaving - remained at near record levels, at 327,000. But this was slightly down on the previous year.
The figures showed a slowdown in the numbers settling in the UK from Poland and seven other Eastern European countries - but that was offset by an increase in net migration from Bulgaria and Romania, which hit record levels of 60,000.The figures showed a slowdown in the numbers settling in the UK from Poland and seven other Eastern European countries - but that was offset by an increase in net migration from Bulgaria and Romania, which hit record levels of 60,000.
TradeTrade
Figures from the ONS suggest inflationary pressures are building for businesses bringing in materials from abroad. Materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers rose by 7.6% in price. That was the fastest rise since December 2011, and compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year to July.Figures from the ONS suggest inflationary pressures are building for businesses bringing in materials from abroad. Materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers rose by 7.6% in price. That was the fastest rise since December 2011, and compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year to July.
The price of goods leaving the factory also rose 0.8% in August, compared with a rise of 0.3% the previous month.The price of goods leaving the factory also rose 0.8% in August, compared with a rise of 0.3% the previous month.
Britain has long been running a trade deficit, meaning that overall we import more than we export.Britain has long been running a trade deficit, meaning that overall we import more than we export.
The chart below shows that we do sell more services abroad than we import - but this is not enough to counter the bigger deficit in the value of the goods we sell abroad, compared to the value of the goods we import.The chart below shows that we do sell more services abroad than we import - but this is not enough to counter the bigger deficit in the value of the goods we sell abroad, compared to the value of the goods we import.
In the month of the referendum, Britain's trade deficit widened to £5.1bn after imports hit a new high.In the month of the referendum, Britain's trade deficit widened to £5.1bn after imports hit a new high.
A weaker pound may help exporters cut some of this deficit as their products will now be cheaper, but it could also cause continuing inflationary pressures in the UK as it will put up the costs of imports and raw materials.A weaker pound may help exporters cut some of this deficit as their products will now be cheaper, but it could also cause continuing inflationary pressures in the UK as it will put up the costs of imports and raw materials.
ConstructionConstruction
The UK's construction industry seems to have recovered in August from a downturn that started just before June's Brexit vote. The latest Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.2 from 45.9 in July, although the figure is still below the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction.The UK's construction industry seems to have recovered in August from a downturn that started just before June's Brexit vote. The latest Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.2 from 45.9 in July, although the figure is still below the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction.
The uncertainty over what happens next acted as a brake on the construction sector during August, especially in terms of house building, the survey suggests. However, a number of firms say that sales have held up better than had been expected.The uncertainty over what happens next acted as a brake on the construction sector during August, especially in terms of house building, the survey suggests. However, a number of firms say that sales have held up better than had been expected.
Significantly these figures also indicate the sector has seen a further steep rise in the cost of raw materials, with input costs now rising at their fastest pace since July 2011.Significantly these figures also indicate the sector has seen a further steep rise in the cost of raw materials, with input costs now rising at their fastest pace since July 2011.
JobsJobs
There was a slight rise in UK unemployment to 1.66 million between June and August. There was a slight rise in UK unemployment to 1.6 million - an 11-year low - between July and September.
The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.4% a year ago and unchanged from the previous period, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows. The unemployment rate was 4.8%, down from 5.3% a year earlier, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows.
Elsewhere, a Markit/REC survey suggested the jobs market suffered a dramatic slowdown in July, with permanent hiring dropping to levels not seen since the 2009 recession.Elsewhere, a Markit/REC survey suggested the jobs market suffered a dramatic slowdown in July, with permanent hiring dropping to levels not seen since the 2009 recession.
When it comes to individual firms the picture is mixed.When it comes to individual firms the picture is mixed.
Nissan confirmed it would build both the new Qashqai and the X-Trail SUV at its Sunderland plant thanks to government "support and assurances", an announcement Theresa May described as a "vote of confidence".Nissan confirmed it would build both the new Qashqai and the X-Trail SUV at its Sunderland plant thanks to government "support and assurances", an announcement Theresa May described as a "vote of confidence".
The Japanese company's commitment to Britain's biggest car plant had been in doubt following the EU referendum.The Japanese company's commitment to Britain's biggest car plant had been in doubt following the EU referendum.
But the world's biggest security firm, G4S, warned that the UK's workforce and economic growth might shrink, and one of Britain's biggest banks, Lloyds, has accelerated its job cuts, axing a further 3,000 posts - although it said it had made this decision before the referendum.But the world's biggest security firm, G4S, warned that the UK's workforce and economic growth might shrink, and one of Britain's biggest banks, Lloyds, has accelerated its job cuts, axing a further 3,000 posts - although it said it had made this decision before the referendum.
Elsewhere Japan's Softbank said it was buying the UK microchip-maker ARM Holdings for £24bn, and would double the number of staff in five years, pharmaceuticals firm GlaxoSmithKline is investing £275m in the UK, while McDonald's is creating 5,000 new jobs.Elsewhere Japan's Softbank said it was buying the UK microchip-maker ARM Holdings for £24bn, and would double the number of staff in five years, pharmaceuticals firm GlaxoSmithKline is investing £275m in the UK, while McDonald's is creating 5,000 new jobs.