US election: Could Republicans still dump Donald Trump?
(2 months later)
The chairman of the Republican Party famously said that Donald Trump's tumultuous candidacy had not yet pushed him to pour whiskey into his morning cereal.
For all Republicans out there longing to boot Donald Trump off the presidential ticket even at this late stage, there are four key words.
But after the past few weeks, Reince Priebus' resolve is being tested again.
Death, declination, or otherwise.
It has been a bruising August for the Republican presidential nominee. He attacked the family of a fallen US soldier, appeared to encourage violence against his rival Hillary Clinton and feuded with members of his party. The list goes on.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) sets out in its Rule 9 the terms for "filling vacancies in nominations".
Many Republicans have determined the Trump campaign has finally reached the point of no return and are running for the exits. So what are their options?
It reads: "The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States."
Hope he quits
Death may be off the agenda, so what about the other scenarios?
The best way for the Republican Party to replace Mr Trump on the ballot at this point is for the New York billionaire to voluntarily leave the race, says Charles Spies, a former top lawyer at the Republican National Committee (RNC).
Declination...
A vacancy would invoke "Rule Nine" of the Rules of the Republican Party. The board of the RNC - with 160 members representing all states and territories - would select a replacement.
Mr Trump would voluntarily leave the race.
Each state and territory would have the same amount of voting power that it had at the convention. Mike Pence, the vice-presidential nominee, would not get an automatic promotion because the board can choose anyone to fill the vacancy, Mr Spies says.
With "Rule 9" invoked, the RNC could then either reconvene the 2,472-delegate convention to vote again - a virtual impossibility at this stage - or the board of the RNC, with 160 members representing all states and territories, would select a replacement.
Unfortunately for the Republican Party, Mr Trump isn't likely to ride off into the sunset quietly. So even though his poll numbers are circling the drain, he is still drawing huge crowds to his rallies, raising millions of dollars and attracting hundreds of journalists to hang on his every word.
Each state and territory would have the same amount of voting power that it had at the convention. Mike Pence, the vice-presidential nominee, would not get an automatic promotion because the board could choose anyone to fill the vacancy.
"If you're in an echo chamber and everyone is telling you what you want to hear, why would think you should drop out?" Mr Spies says.
Many Republican representatives and senators would welcome a new candidate as he or she could help them hold on to their seats.
Pros: It's the cleanest way for the Republican Party to divorce itself from Mr Trump. If he goes of his own accord, his supporters, who are now a powerful Republican voting bloc, are less likely to spurn the party. And a non-Trump Republican presidential candidate could help the party hold on to their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Unfortunately for Trump opponents, the candidate has shown no intention of exiting the scene. His comments after the latest obscene remarks controversy - "See you at the debate on Sunday."
Cons: Any candidate tapped to replace Mr Trump would face huge logistical challenges. National presidential campaigns usually take two years - not two months - to pull off. And the pool of candidates will be limited. Promising candidates - such as House Speaker Paul Ryan or Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton - are not likely to sign on to such an uphill task.
...or otherwise
Find another candidate to rally round
The anti-Trumpers might take some comfort in the vagueness of the phrase.
Without Mr Trump leaving the race, a Republican replacement isn't possible under the rules. But many Republicans are already embracing a third-party option. Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson is a former Republican and served as the governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003. Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent and Republican Congressional staff member, is also running as an independent, but he entered the race too late to compete in every state.
Rule 9 has never actually been used before and so its boundaries have never been tested. The last time a candidate left the ticket late was in 1972. Democratic vice-presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton was forced off after his bouts of depression were made public.
Pros: Mr Johnson is poised to do better than any third-party candidate in more than two decades. He's on the ballot in all 50 states and he may participate in the presidential debates if his poll numbers rise to 15% (He's averaging about 10% now).
"Otherwise" is generally taken to cover the gap between death and declination, perhaps a coma or stroke or other illness that leaves the candidate alive but unable to signal withdrawal.
Cons: Supporting Mr Johnson or Mr McMullin will likely clear the way for a Clinton victory. And although Mr Johnson was once a Republican, some of his views - such as his support of the legalisation of drugs - do not sit well with many conservatives.
As such, it is about filling vacancies and not creating them.
Force him out, using an obscure rule
But some have suggested a broader interpretation, taking "otherwise" into areas such as acts of criminality, treason or even adopting principles "fundamentally at variance with party principles", as commentator Thomas Balch puts it.
Some conservatives are holding out hope that an obscure Republican National Committee manoeuvre could rid them of Mr Trump as the nominee. The theory is the RNC could declare Mr Trump "not of sound mind" and remove him under the aforementioned Rule Nine, which caters for a candidate being incapacitated by an ailment like a stroke.
But Mr Trump could sue if the "otherwise" path were taken against him.
"We're in uncharted territory here... but they are throwing stuff at the wall at this point," says Kevin Sheridan, a former spokesman for the RNC and an adviser to Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.
By the way, even if he did commit a criminal act, it would not bar him from running for the presidency. He could possibly pardon himself after winning.
Pros: Not many because the chance of it actually happening is zero.
Rewriting the rules
Cons: Essentially calling a man - who more than 10 million Republicans chose to be their president - insane is a bold move. Mr Spies says this "not of sound mind" theory would be a stretch legally. Also, any effort to remove Mr Trump by party insiders would likely fail, he says. "I think you would have an absolute revolt from the Republican grassroots."
Time has run out, it would seem, even if there were the inclination.
Rule 9 can be amended by a majority vote of the RNC's Standing Committee on Rules, followed by a three-quarter majority in the RNC. But it would only take effect 30 days later.
The voting problem
Tens of thousands of Republicans have already cast their absentee votes, many of them in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. What happens to them?
Many state set deadlines locking the names on ballot papers so that electoral procedures can run smoothly. Those ballots now have Mr Trump's name on them, and the deadlines have passed. Anyone voting for a Republican candidate would probably have to select Mr Trump.
This happened in Florida in 2006, when representative Mark Foley resigned five weeks before polling day. The Republican Party failed to get replacement Joe Negron on the ballot. Its "punch Foley for Joe" campaign failed to retain what had been a safe Republican seat.
Vote for someone else
Without Mr Trump leaving the race, a Republican replacement isn't possible under the rules.
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson is a former Republican and served as the governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003. He did pull in 1.275 million votes in 2012 and is on the ballot in all 50 states.
Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent and Republican Congressional staff member, is also running as an independent, but he entered the race too late to compete in every state.
The downside for conservatives is a third-party vote could aid a victory for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
The Green Party's Jill Stein probably won't attract many Republicans.
Denounce him and sit this one out
Denounce him and sit this one out
"Better luck next time" isn't the most comforting election strategy, but some disaffected Republicans think their best option is to denounce him and wait. More and more are signing letters and writing columns denouncing Mr Trump. Ohio Governor John Kasich is keeping his distance literally - he declined to show up at Mr Trump's convention.
"Better luck next time" isn't the most comforting election strategy, but some disaffected Republicans think their best option is to denounce him and wait. More and more are signing letters and writing columns denouncing Mr Trump.
Pros: Taking the moral high ground. Plus political ambitions - Mr Kasich and Ted Cruz, two of Mr Trump's Republican primary rivals, are believed to have their eye on the 2020 presidential race and want to be able to say: "I told you so".
Thirty former Republican lawmakers did that on 6 October, saying in a letter that Mr Trump lacked the "intelligence" and temperament to be president. They didn't propose any removal, just that voters reject him at the ballot box.
Cons: Pulling support from Mr Trump is not without its risks. He has a strong following among the Republican Party's most loyal voters. Arizona Senator John McCain is no fan of Mr Trump, but he has maintained his tepid endorsement of the nominee. Why? He's up for re-election and needs to maintain his support among the Republican base. Most Republicans who have denounced Mr Trump are either retiring or not up for re-election anytime soon.
Hope he wins and pick up the pieces
Put your head down and hope he wins
Mr Trump has been underestimated before and eventually came out on top. Republicans have made it this far enduring Mr Trump's wild campaign, so what's another month?
Things look bad now, but anything can happen in a presidential election. Mr Trump has been underestimated before and eventually came out on top. Republicans have made it this far enduring Mr Trump's wild campaign, so what's another 90 days?
The executive branch is a huge undertaking involving thousands of positions and there aren't enough Trump loyalists to fill them all. Republicans - even ones uneasy with Mr Trump - will be able to shape policy and deliver on issues important to their constituents for the next four years.
Mr Spies, for one, is still hoping that Mr Trump can right the ship. "He just needs to stop saying offensive things."
On the other hand, Mr Trump may have done lasting damage to the Republican Party's brand with Latino, black, Muslim and women voters.
Pros: In a word: Power. The executive branch is a huge undertaking involving thousands of positions and there aren't enough Trump loyalists to fill them. Republicans - even ones uneasy with Mr Trump - will be able to shape policy and deliver on issues important to their constituents for the next four years.
Cons: Republicans have long suspected Mr Trump is not a "real Republican". A Trump presidency would test those suspicions. Also Mr Trump may have done lasting damage to the Republican Party's brand with Latino, black, Muslim and women voters. Mr Trump could win with the help of an overwhelmingly white voting bloc, but it may be a pyrrhic victory - a last hurrah for a shrinking party.
