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| Hillary Clinton got a big boost from the convention. What happens next? | Hillary Clinton got a big boost from the convention. What happens next? |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| “I love polls. I love polls,” Donald Trump told a South Carolina audience in December, while he was still one of many contenders in the Republican primary. But, he hedged, “if they turn negative, I don’t like them.” | “I love polls. I love polls,” Donald Trump told a South Carolina audience in December, while he was still one of many contenders in the Republican primary. But, he hedged, “if they turn negative, I don’t like them.” |
| Sure enough, Trump has been singing a different tune in the general election, during which he’s mostly trailed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. | Sure enough, Trump has been singing a different tune in the general election, during which he’s mostly trailed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. |
| Even his moment in the spotlight during the Republican national convention in mid-July was cut short by the Democratic convention just one week later. Trump briefly surged to a one-point lead over Clinton soon after the RNC. But Clinton’s convention bump – which put her seven points ahead in polling averages – not only wiped out Trump’s short-lived lead but built upon her previous dominance. | |
| The Guardian analyzed RealClearPolitics polling averages from three previous election cycles to look at what could affect Clinton’s lead. How the candidates fare in the polls before election day may yet defy all expectation; this has been a tumultuous election season to say the least. But if history is any guide, Clinton’s current lead hinges on her performance in upcoming debates, the ability to avoid (any more) scandals, and bigger-picture issues like the economy and national security, which are beyond either candidate’s direct control. | The Guardian analyzed RealClearPolitics polling averages from three previous election cycles to look at what could affect Clinton’s lead. How the candidates fare in the polls before election day may yet defy all expectation; this has been a tumultuous election season to say the least. But if history is any guide, Clinton’s current lead hinges on her performance in upcoming debates, the ability to avoid (any more) scandals, and bigger-picture issues like the economy and national security, which are beyond either candidate’s direct control. |
| The convention bump: what does it mean, and will it last? | The convention bump: what does it mean, and will it last? |
| Looking back at previous election years, it’s not unusual to see both candidates rise in the polls after their conventions. After all, conventions are essentially pep rallies with loads of free press for each party’s candidate. | Looking back at previous election years, it’s not unusual to see both candidates rise in the polls after their conventions. After all, conventions are essentially pep rallies with loads of free press for each party’s candidate. |
| “The candidate is the center of attention and the center of profuse praise for several days,” said Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center. Candidates also usually benefit from increased party unity, as infighting left over from the primary race tends to slow by the convention, Keeter said. | “The candidate is the center of attention and the center of profuse praise for several days,” said Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center. Candidates also usually benefit from increased party unity, as infighting left over from the primary race tends to slow by the convention, Keeter said. |
| One candidate getting a bigger and longer lasting convention bump is also not unusual. But who comes out with the bigger net gain from conventions doesn’t necessarily predict who will win in November. | One candidate getting a bigger and longer lasting convention bump is also not unusual. But who comes out with the bigger net gain from conventions doesn’t necessarily predict who will win in November. |
| Take John McCain’s 2008 campaign: Going into convention season that year, Barack Obama led McCain by a point and a half. After the Democratic convention, which was first that year, Obama seemed to rise about a point or two in the polls. But a big boost for McCain after the GOP convention the following week gave him about a two-point lead over Obama. In total, McCain got a net gain of about three and a half points but went on to lose to Obama in November. | Take John McCain’s 2008 campaign: Going into convention season that year, Barack Obama led McCain by a point and a half. After the Democratic convention, which was first that year, Obama seemed to rise about a point or two in the polls. But a big boost for McCain after the GOP convention the following week gave him about a two-point lead over Obama. In total, McCain got a net gain of about three and a half points but went on to lose to Obama in November. |
| The nature of Clinton’s gains, combined with Trump’s further stumbles in the past few weeks, could mean that her post-convention rise in the polls marks a meaningful shift rather than a temporary gain. | The nature of Clinton’s gains, combined with Trump’s further stumbles in the past few weeks, could mean that her post-convention rise in the polls marks a meaningful shift rather than a temporary gain. |
| But even if Clinton’s lead holds for the next few weeks, she shouldn’t get too confident. Debates, gaffes, and unpredictable geopolitical events have all taken hits on even the most prolonged convention bumps in previous elections. | But even if Clinton’s lead holds for the next few weeks, she shouldn’t get too confident. Debates, gaffes, and unpredictable geopolitical events have all taken hits on even the most prolonged convention bumps in previous elections. |
| The candidates’ next chance to shine: the debates | The candidates’ next chance to shine: the debates |
| Clinton and Trump will go head to head on 26 September during the first general election debate – that is, if Trump decides to show up. The debate will be the next big opportunity – or at least the next planned opportunity – for the candidates to bask in the national spotlight and gain an edge in the polls. | Clinton and Trump will go head to head on 26 September during the first general election debate – that is, if Trump decides to show up. The debate will be the next big opportunity – or at least the next planned opportunity – for the candidates to bask in the national spotlight and gain an edge in the polls. |
| In the past, debates have had a big influence on the number of people who say they will vote for a given candidate. After the 2004 and 2012 convention seasons, both George W Bush and Obama were able to hold onto their convention bumps for a few weeks. (For Bush, his post-convention bump lasted about a month. For Obama, his numbers stayed high for two weeks.) | In the past, debates have had a big influence on the number of people who say they will vote for a given candidate. After the 2004 and 2012 convention seasons, both George W Bush and Obama were able to hold onto their convention bumps for a few weeks. (For Bush, his post-convention bump lasted about a month. For Obama, his numbers stayed high for two weeks.) |
| But, in both cases, the candidates’ poll numbers took a hit after the first debate. | But, in both cases, the candidates’ poll numbers took a hit after the first debate. |
| Despite trailing Bush in the polls for much of the fall of 2004, a majority of viewers polled thought John Kerry won the first debate. The candidates sparred over the war in Iraq for nearly two-thirds of the debate, and Bush’s defenses appeared weak in the face of Kerry’s persistent criticisms. Bush subsequently lost around five points of his polling lead. | Despite trailing Bush in the polls for much of the fall of 2004, a majority of viewers polled thought John Kerry won the first debate. The candidates sparred over the war in Iraq for nearly two-thirds of the debate, and Bush’s defenses appeared weak in the face of Kerry’s persistent criticisms. Bush subsequently lost around five points of his polling lead. |
| A similar scene played out again in 2012, between another incumbent, Obama, and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Despite trailing in the polls, Romney was well prepared for the first debate, and Obama – often glancing at his notes – didn’t perform particularly well. More than seven in 10 Americans told Gallup that Romney did a better job, which was reflected in post-debate polls when Obama’s lead decreased by around three points. | A similar scene played out again in 2012, between another incumbent, Obama, and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Despite trailing in the polls, Romney was well prepared for the first debate, and Obama – often glancing at his notes – didn’t perform particularly well. More than seven in 10 Americans told Gallup that Romney did a better job, which was reflected in post-debate polls when Obama’s lead decreased by around three points. |
| If Clinton’s current lead holds up by the first debate in late September (which would be a very long post-convention bump indeed), her debate performance could once again change the balance of the race. | If Clinton’s current lead holds up by the first debate in late September (which would be a very long post-convention bump indeed), her debate performance could once again change the balance of the race. |
| Economic or geopolitical shocks could move the polls | Economic or geopolitical shocks could move the polls |
| While it’s easier to predict swings in the polls because of planned events such as conventions and debates, it’s more difficult to forecast how unpredictable factors – including geopolitical shocks or economic slowdown – could impact the candidates’ chances of victory. | While it’s easier to predict swings in the polls because of planned events such as conventions and debates, it’s more difficult to forecast how unpredictable factors – including geopolitical shocks or economic slowdown – could impact the candidates’ chances of victory. |
| McCain’s reaction to the financial crisis and his association with the outgoing president likely contributed to the collapse of his post-convention polling bounce. | McCain’s reaction to the financial crisis and his association with the outgoing president likely contributed to the collapse of his post-convention polling bounce. |
| The morning after Lehman Brothers collapsed, McCain, who was leading in polls at the time, argued that the economy was “fundamentally sound”. The comment caused an uproar. McCain was in the tough position of representing the incumbent party during a financial meltdown and was now on record saying things that further damaged his image. McCain’s poll numbers sank the following week, and he wouldn’t recover his lead again before that year’s election. | The morning after Lehman Brothers collapsed, McCain, who was leading in polls at the time, argued that the economy was “fundamentally sound”. The comment caused an uproar. McCain was in the tough position of representing the incumbent party during a financial meltdown and was now on record saying things that further damaged his image. McCain’s poll numbers sank the following week, and he wouldn’t recover his lead again before that year’s election. |
| Signs of an economic crisis could particularly hurt Clinton, who has aligned herself closely with Obama’s legacy. | Signs of an economic crisis could particularly hurt Clinton, who has aligned herself closely with Obama’s legacy. |
| Questions of national security – terrorist attacks or foreign military conflicts – could throw greater uncertainty into the election, too. | Questions of national security – terrorist attacks or foreign military conflicts – could throw greater uncertainty into the election, too. |
| Security – and Isis especially – has been a central issue for both campaigns this year. On terrorism, for instance, some polls show voters believe Clinton would handle such unrest better. Other polls have both candidates head to head. | Security – and Isis especially – has been a central issue for both campaigns this year. On terrorism, for instance, some polls show voters believe Clinton would handle such unrest better. Other polls have both candidates head to head. |
| Scandals and controversy: will we reach a tipping point? | Scandals and controversy: will we reach a tipping point? |
| Scandals and gaffes have hurt candidates before, but whether the same holds true for this election is anyone’s guess. Both Trump and Clinton are trailed by scandal – the looming Trump University lawsuit and email-gate, respectively. | Scandals and gaffes have hurt candidates before, but whether the same holds true for this election is anyone’s guess. Both Trump and Clinton are trailed by scandal – the looming Trump University lawsuit and email-gate, respectively. |
| The FBI’s decision not to press criminal charges over Clinton’s private email server was a central news story in early July. After FBI director James Comey complained that Clinton showed “gross negligence” regarding her emails, Clinton’s poll numbers dropped by a few points, though they’ve bounced back since. How much more impact the email controversy will have remains to be seen. | The FBI’s decision not to press criminal charges over Clinton’s private email server was a central news story in early July. After FBI director James Comey complained that Clinton showed “gross negligence” regarding her emails, Clinton’s poll numbers dropped by a few points, though they’ve bounced back since. How much more impact the email controversy will have remains to be seen. |
| Meanwhile, Trump says controversial things so routinely that the word “gaffe” has lost all meaning. From the day he announced his candidacy, Trump’s speeches, television appearances, and tweets have been rife with insults. But many of his rhetorical barbs didn’t lead to big shifts in his polling numbers – to the amazement of many analysts. | Meanwhile, Trump says controversial things so routinely that the word “gaffe” has lost all meaning. From the day he announced his candidacy, Trump’s speeches, television appearances, and tweets have been rife with insults. But many of his rhetorical barbs didn’t lead to big shifts in his polling numbers – to the amazement of many analysts. |
| It’s hard to say that the right insult or combination of controversial statements couldn’t bring down Trump’s chances of getting elected. Just in the past couple weeks, he attacked the family of a fallen marine captain, suggested the election will be rigged, and hinted at an assassination attempt against Clinton. This combination of statements may have contributed to Trump’s dip in the polls after the GOP convention. | It’s hard to say that the right insult or combination of controversial statements couldn’t bring down Trump’s chances of getting elected. Just in the past couple weeks, he attacked the family of a fallen marine captain, suggested the election will be rigged, and hinted at an assassination attempt against Clinton. This combination of statements may have contributed to Trump’s dip in the polls after the GOP convention. |
| But just four years ago, these things mattered. | But just four years ago, these things mattered. |
| In September 2012, Romney was already trailing Obama in the polls when a surreptitiously recorded video leaked of Romney, behind closed doors, describing 47% of Americans as entitled and “dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims”. The polls swung about one percentage point in Obama’s direction shortly thereafter, Nate Silver estimated. | In September 2012, Romney was already trailing Obama in the polls when a surreptitiously recorded video leaked of Romney, behind closed doors, describing 47% of Americans as entitled and “dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims”. The polls swung about one percentage point in Obama’s direction shortly thereafter, Nate Silver estimated. |
| It’s still possible that the right controversial statement could cause a shift in this year’s polls, too. After all, there are about three months between now and election day. | It’s still possible that the right controversial statement could cause a shift in this year’s polls, too. After all, there are about three months between now and election day. |
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