For Trump, Pennsylvania Is a Crucial Battleground

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/us/politics/for-trump-pennsylvania-is-a-crucial-battleground.html

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The lunch group in Monessen, Pa., is evenly divided between Donald J. Trump supporters and Trump opponents. But the dark mood across the whole room suggests why this working-class town might end up favoring him in November.

Monessen, once a steelmaking hub, has steadily lost plants, jobs and population over the decades. Along Donner Avenue, there are more boarded-up buildings than open stores. Mayor Lou Mavrakis points out one that has clearly been inhabited by birds for decades and not cleaned.

The mayor assembled a group of residents for lunch at Felicia’s Restaurant and Lounge, where they discussed the problems they see at home and abroad. “I’m tired of being a 911 for the world,” said Kevin Iacovangelo, who fixes and sells computers.

Mr. Trump is a welcome protest vote for many in the hard-pressed communities of southwestern Pennsylvania. At the Monessen lunch, even some of his supporters said he was a blowhard. They did not object when others called him a bigot.

But voters in the town like his “to hell with the establishment” style and say he talks about what matters to them. “Trump’s message is very simple,” said State Senator Camera Bartolotta, a Republican. “Let’s make America great again. Let’s make America work again and grow again.”

No state is more central to Mr. Trump’s uphill quest than Pennsylvania, which has voted Democratic in the last six presidential elections. Despite polls showing Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead, Mr. Trump’s forces insist the state is winnable.

“We’re drawing much bigger crowds,” said David Urban, a senior adviser to the campaign. “The enthusiasm gap for us in the commonwealth is huge.”

That is the case in Monessen and surrounding Westmoreland County.

Drive 300 miles east, however, to Montgomery County, the third largest county in the state, and once again Pennsylvania looks like a mirage for Mr. Trump. Once a Republican stronghold, this affluent Philadelphia suburb is palpably anti-Trump. Walk into a few stores in Bryn Mawr, on the upper-crust Main Line, and the mention of his name draws sneers.

“He’s toast here,” said Michael Gerber, a former state legislator representing Montgomery County who is still deeply involved in Democratic politics. Four years ago, President Obama received 57 percent of the vote in Montgomery. Mr. Gerber says of Mrs. Clinton: “She’ll do much better.”

Four big suburban counties — Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks and Chester — together will cast more votes than Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined. With an influx of young voters, a number fleeing the city, with more minorities and especially a growing Asian population, this bloc has turned more Democratic, a trend that Mr. Trump could accelerate.

Take Robert Butera of Montgomery County. He was a Republican leader in the state legislature and a candidate for governor in the late 1970s. His wife is now solidly with Mrs. Clinton, and while he does not share her enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate, he is certain he will not vote for Mr. Trump. “He’s not qualified or competent to be president,” Mr. Butera said.

In Pennsylvania politics, Westmoreland and Montgomery are polar opposites. As recently as 1988, George H. W. Bush captured 60 percent of the vote in Montgomery County, while Michael Dukakis won Westmoreland.

Edward G. Rendell, a former mayor of Philadelphia and Democratic governor, offers insight into what could still be a close contest if the Trump campaign does not implode. Mr. Obama ran up a margin of almost 595,000 votes in Philadelphia and Allegheny County (where Pittsburgh is) four years ago; assume maybe that is shaved by 15 percent with less enthusiasm for Mrs. Clinton. The rest of the state, minus the Philadelphia suburbs, Mitt Romney won by 400,000 votes; with Mr. Trump’s appeal in southwestern Pennsylvania, give him an additional 100,000 votes.

That would make it even coming into Montgomery and the three other suburban counties, which last time gave Mr. Obama a margin of 123,000 votes. A recent poll by Franklin and Marshall College suggested that Mrs. Clinton has an advantage in these suburbs of more than two to one.

More than a few Republicans, and most Democrats, say she will double the president’s victory margin.