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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
|---|---|
| First minister warns on cost of Brexit to Scotland | First minister warns on cost of Brexit to Scotland |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The first minister has warned that leaving the EU could cost the Scottish economy billions of pounds. | The first minister has warned that leaving the EU could cost the Scottish economy billions of pounds. |
| Nicola Sturgeon published an analysis of possible Brexit consequences, saying the Scottish economy could lose between £1.7bn and £11.2bn a year by 2030. | Nicola Sturgeon published an analysis of possible Brexit consequences, saying the Scottish economy could lose between £1.7bn and £11.2bn a year by 2030. |
| Ms Sturgeon said this could have a severe impact on public spending. | Ms Sturgeon said this could have a severe impact on public spending. |
| Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson urged the Scottish government to focus on stabilising the country in the wake of the Brexit vote. | Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson urged the Scottish government to focus on stabilising the country in the wake of the Brexit vote. |
| She said it needed to focus on stability and "get back to the day job". | She said it needed to focus on stability and "get back to the day job". |
| A spokesman for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon described Ms Davidson's comments as the "height of hypocrisy". | A spokesman for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon described Ms Davidson's comments as the "height of hypocrisy". |
| And he blamed the Conservatives for Brexit and the "huge economic damage" it could cause Scotland. | And he blamed the Conservatives for Brexit and the "huge economic damage" it could cause Scotland. |
| The UK as a whole voted to leave the European Union, but a majority (62%) of people living in Scotland voted to remain. | The UK as a whole voted to leave the European Union, but a majority (62%) of people living in Scotland voted to remain. |
| Ms Sturgeon said a second independence referendum was "highly likely" following the poll, but has promised to explore other options to safeguard Scotland's status in Europe. | Ms Sturgeon said a second independence referendum was "highly likely" following the poll, but has promised to explore other options to safeguard Scotland's status in Europe. |
| Government analysis | Government analysis |
| Analysis published by the Scottish government suggested that by 2030, Scottish GDP was projected to be between £1.7bn and £11.2bn per year lower than it would have been if Brexit does not occur. | Analysis published by the Scottish government suggested that by 2030, Scottish GDP was projected to be between £1.7bn and £11.2bn per year lower than it would have been if Brexit does not occur. |
| Tax revenue was projected to be between £1.7bn and £3.7bn lower. | Tax revenue was projected to be between £1.7bn and £3.7bn lower. |
| Ms Sturgeon said "This paper shows, in the starkest possible terms, the potentially huge cost to Scotland of being taken out of the European Union and the single market. | Ms Sturgeon said "This paper shows, in the starkest possible terms, the potentially huge cost to Scotland of being taken out of the European Union and the single market. |
| "This analysis - based on a wide range of sources - demonstrates that leaving the EU, under any potential alternative arrangement, will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the public finances and the wider economic and societal wellbeing of both Scotland and the UK as a whole. | "This analysis - based on a wide range of sources - demonstrates that leaving the EU, under any potential alternative arrangement, will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the public finances and the wider economic and societal wellbeing of both Scotland and the UK as a whole. |
| "That stark picture outlined today means that, whatever the model of relationship with the EU which is chosen by the UK government in their negotiations before and after Article 50 is triggered, it will not be as economically beneficial as full EU membership." | "That stark picture outlined today means that, whatever the model of relationship with the EU which is chosen by the UK government in their negotiations before and after Article 50 is triggered, it will not be as economically beneficial as full EU membership." |
| Analysis by BBC Scotland Political Editor Brian Taylor | Analysis by BBC Scotland Political Editor Brian Taylor |
| These figures are an arithmetical forecast, with caveats. They will be contested by those who argue that the UK/Scotland can thrive outside the EU. But they are also - indeed, primarily - a political tool. | These figures are an arithmetical forecast, with caveats. They will be contested by those who argue that the UK/Scotland can thrive outside the EU. But they are also - indeed, primarily - a political tool. |
| Practical implications | Practical implications |
| Firstly, and most immediately, Nicola Sturgeon is seeking to some extent to pre-empt the publication on Wednesday of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures. | Firstly, and most immediately, Nicola Sturgeon is seeking to some extent to pre-empt the publication on Wednesday of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures. |
| Given that oil has continued to decline and that the economy generally is less than buoyant, the latest GERS verdict is unlikely to be rosy. | Given that oil has continued to decline and that the economy generally is less than buoyant, the latest GERS verdict is unlikely to be rosy. |
| Secondly, and much more saliently, Ms Sturgeon is aiming an attack at the UK government and those who are currently pondering the practical implications of the Brexit vote. | Secondly, and much more saliently, Ms Sturgeon is aiming an attack at the UK government and those who are currently pondering the practical implications of the Brexit vote. |
| She is saying that unless Brexit is accompanied by a soft landing, unless there is substantial mitigation, unless the terms can be made relatively favourable, the potential cost is huge. So today's paper is designed to contribute, sharply, to the Brexit preparation process. | She is saying that unless Brexit is accompanied by a soft landing, unless there is substantial mitigation, unless the terms can be made relatively favourable, the potential cost is huge. So today's paper is designed to contribute, sharply, to the Brexit preparation process. |
| However, there is a wider point. It is "simply unacceptable", Ms Sturgeon says, that "Scotland faces the prospect of being dragged out of the EU against its will". | However, there is a wider point. It is "simply unacceptable", Ms Sturgeon says, that "Scotland faces the prospect of being dragged out of the EU against its will". |
| Read more from Brian | Read more from Brian |
| 'Fresh doubt' | 'Fresh doubt' |
| In a speech ahead of the new parliamentary session, Ms Davidson demanded that the Scottish government used new and existing powers to boost Scotland's prospects. | |
| She also urged the government to adopt Tory policies to support economic growth rather than resurrect its campaign for independence. | |
| She said: "I believe Scotland now faces a choice. | |
| "Either we can add to the turbulence and the instability - by piling fresh doubt over our future on top of that which already exists. | "Either we can add to the turbulence and the instability - by piling fresh doubt over our future on top of that which already exists. |
| "Or we can now work to try and put this period of instability behind us so we can all focus on building a stronger and more stable country". | "Or we can now work to try and put this period of instability behind us so we can all focus on building a stronger and more stable country". |
| She added: "I want today to challenge the Scottish government - because we now need a new type of government in Scotland. | She added: "I want today to challenge the Scottish government - because we now need a new type of government in Scotland. |
| "One which no longer sees every issue through the prism of independence and the constitution. | "One which no longer sees every issue through the prism of independence and the constitution. |
| "But one 100% committed to the job in hand. It's time we had a government that got back to the day job." | "But one 100% committed to the job in hand. It's time we had a government that got back to the day job." |
| The MSP also outlined plans to boost the Scottish economy, including: |