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| Transport for London's financial numbers crunch | Transport for London's financial numbers crunch |
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| Put at its simplest, Transport for London (TfL) needs more money but is getting less of it. A year or so ago, it said its annual income was £11.5bn, but the figure in its 2016/17 budget and business plan, published in March, was £10.4bn (see page 60) - and that was before Sadiq Khan was elected mayor. Government cuts were already reducing the amount of cash coming in, and Khan’s fares freeze and requirement that more of the housing to be built on TfL land is “genuinely affordable” look set to reduce it more. | |
| Meanwhile, London’s population is projected to rise from its current 8.6 million-plus to 10 million by 2030. TfL has a large programme of investment in new and improved transport capacity to enable all those extra people and all the others who work in or visit London each day to get around the place as comfortably and efficiently as possible. If that programme is not to be reduced, as Khan promised it won’t be, TfL has to find ways to increase its income and reduce its costs, as Khan promised it will. | Meanwhile, London’s population is projected to rise from its current 8.6 million-plus to 10 million by 2030. TfL has a large programme of investment in new and improved transport capacity to enable all those extra people and all the others who work in or visit London each day to get around the place as comfortably and efficiently as possible. If that programme is not to be reduced, as Khan promised it won’t be, TfL has to find ways to increase its income and reduce its costs, as Khan promised it will. |
| A new report from the London Assembly’s cross-party budget and performance committee sizes up the financial challenge facing TfL and reaches some measured but fairly stern conclusions. The committee’s membership of three Labour AMs, two Conservatives (including its chair), one Liberal Democrat and one Green paints a picture of uncertain revenue streams, rising costs and risks - which TfL and Boris Johnson had recognised prior to the election - to several projects, including new stations planned for the huge Old Oak Common regeneration scheme, cycling infrastructure, the Sutton tram extension, air quality measures and road safety. | A new report from the London Assembly’s cross-party budget and performance committee sizes up the financial challenge facing TfL and reaches some measured but fairly stern conclusions. The committee’s membership of three Labour AMs, two Conservatives (including its chair), one Liberal Democrat and one Green paints a picture of uncertain revenue streams, rising costs and risks - which TfL and Boris Johnson had recognised prior to the election - to several projects, including new stations planned for the huge Old Oak Common regeneration scheme, cycling infrastructure, the Sutton tram extension, air quality measures and road safety. |
| The report confirms that the scale and recently increased speed of the government’s phasing out of what is called TfL’s general grant, which contributes to the capital’s transport systems’ day-to-day operating costs by supporting its revenues, are “the most significant elements of TfL’s current financial difficulties”. Nearly £600m built into the 2015/16 business plan is to be reduced to nothing by 2018/19 - nearly 9% of of its total operating income for that year. | The report confirms that the scale and recently increased speed of the government’s phasing out of what is called TfL’s general grant, which contributes to the capital’s transport systems’ day-to-day operating costs by supporting its revenues, are “the most significant elements of TfL’s current financial difficulties”. Nearly £600m built into the 2015/16 business plan is to be reduced to nothing by 2018/19 - nearly 9% of of its total operating income for that year. |
| The report adds that TfL has become accustomed to using some of this grant income to support its capital investment programme - the one that pays for the sorts of new transport stuff now under review - and had been disappointed that the government hadn’t recognised this by compensating for it in its separate capital investment grant. TfL chief finance officer Ian Nunn told the committee in January that he anticipates there being about £300m a year less to spend on capital projects. The current TfL business plan puts the total capital investment figure for 2016/17 at £2.4bn. | |
| So big lumps of loot have indeed been removed by the government’s cuts. On top of these, TfL must now factor in the implications of Khan’s fares freeze. The projection TfL released during the election campaign of £1.9bn has since been thoroughly unpicked and the committee concludes it was “unrealistically high”. Even so, the revised number remains a substantial £640m over four years. Khan’s new Hopper bus ticket, which comes into effect from Monday, will also have an effect - it will make some bus passengers better off, but, all else being equal, will have the opposite effect on TfL. | So big lumps of loot have indeed been removed by the government’s cuts. On top of these, TfL must now factor in the implications of Khan’s fares freeze. The projection TfL released during the election campaign of £1.9bn has since been thoroughly unpicked and the committee concludes it was “unrealistically high”. Even so, the revised number remains a substantial £640m over four years. Khan’s new Hopper bus ticket, which comes into effect from Monday, will also have an effect - it will make some bus passengers better off, but, all else being equal, will have the opposite effect on TfL. |
| The committee lists other factors that could have adverse effects, notably the possible costs of Brexit: a fall in economic activity would lead to less demand for services and cause a drop in fares income; borrowing could become more difficult; EU grants to TfL, whilst not huge, will disappear. TfL has already noted a fall in property values post-Brexit, which could be bad for its property development plans. | The committee lists other factors that could have adverse effects, notably the possible costs of Brexit: a fall in economic activity would lead to less demand for services and cause a drop in fares income; borrowing could become more difficult; EU grants to TfL, whilst not huge, will disappear. TfL has already noted a fall in property values post-Brexit, which could be bad for its property development plans. |
| Can the funding gap be bridged? As the report explains, TfL has become more dependent on receiving a portion of the business rates the mayor retains but warns that “business rates income can be volatile” and that Khan might choose to allocate more of it elsewhere. TfL has made upbeat post-election noises about savings, but the numbers aren’t yet big enough and the committee describes some of them as “arbitrary and unsupported by evidence”, including Khan’s plan to save £25m by merging TfL’s surface and Underground engineering functions and £60m over two years from “better procurement”. Senior staff have already been sounded out about voluntary redundancy. | Can the funding gap be bridged? As the report explains, TfL has become more dependent on receiving a portion of the business rates the mayor retains but warns that “business rates income can be volatile” and that Khan might choose to allocate more of it elsewhere. TfL has made upbeat post-election noises about savings, but the numbers aren’t yet big enough and the committee describes some of them as “arbitrary and unsupported by evidence”, including Khan’s plan to save £25m by merging TfL’s surface and Underground engineering functions and £60m over two years from “better procurement”. Senior staff have already been sounded out about voluntary redundancy. |
| Income should increase, notably from fares, which presently account for 46% of TfL’s income total - about £4.8bn a year, which was expecting to rise to £6.6bn by 2020/21, boosted by the opening of Crossrail. But the report says the fares freeze could restrict that to £6.4bn and that it is “crucial” to tackle the recent, congestion-related, decline in bus use - bus fares contribute one third of TfL’s fares income. The worry is that fares income might not increase by enough. | Income should increase, notably from fares, which presently account for 46% of TfL’s income total - about £4.8bn a year, which was expecting to rise to £6.6bn by 2020/21, boosted by the opening of Crossrail. But the report says the fares freeze could restrict that to £6.4bn and that it is “crucial” to tackle the recent, congestion-related, decline in bus use - bus fares contribute one third of TfL’s fares income. The worry is that fares income might not increase by enough. |
| Khan’s idea that TfL could sell its expertise to other cities is described in the report as potential distraction at a time of mounting pressure on what it already does. There is a, possibly ominous, section on the need for TfL to keep its array of concessionary fares for young and older people under review. | Khan’s idea that TfL could sell its expertise to other cities is described in the report as potential distraction at a time of mounting pressure on what it already does. There is a, possibly ominous, section on the need for TfL to keep its array of concessionary fares for young and older people under review. |
| The report makes seven recommendations, most of them asking TfL to clearly set out all its figures on fares, investment and progress towards meeting the mayor’s various objectives (this is not out of line with a different committee’s report on transparency, published in February). Another urges TfL to publish in advance of the next mayoral election “a set of highly transparent, basic fare income data and assumptions on which candidates can base manifesto commitments and inform the public’s understanding of any proposed changes”. | The report makes seven recommendations, most of them asking TfL to clearly set out all its figures on fares, investment and progress towards meeting the mayor’s various objectives (this is not out of line with a different committee’s report on transparency, published in February). Another urges TfL to publish in advance of the next mayoral election “a set of highly transparent, basic fare income data and assumptions on which candidates can base manifesto commitments and inform the public’s understanding of any proposed changes”. |
| Given the fractious opacity of the fares freeze row during this year’s mayoral fight, that can’t be a bad thing. Whether this valuable committee report is too gloomy and Khan will be vindicated in the long run remains to be seen. Certainly, it should help concentrate minds. Read the whole thing here. |