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Croatia's conservatives take lead in preliminary election results Croatia's conservatives set for coalition talks after losing majority
(about 9 hours later)
The conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) had a clear lead in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, according to preliminary results, suggesting the party was on course to head a more stable government after a turbulent period for Croatia. Croatia’s conservatives were poised to remain in power after winning a snap election but will have to begin coalition talks to form a government after falling short of a majority.
The HDZ stood at 62 seats in the 151-member parliament after 15% of votes had been counted in the second election in less than a year, with their Social Democratic (SDP) rival 10 seats behind. But party officials were cautious, warning that the initial results, skewed towards rural districts that are the HDZ’s traditional strongholds, may be unrepresentative. The close result does little to dispel political uncertainty in the EU’s newest member but the new conservative leader – now likely to be prime minister – has signalled a shift towards the centre after a lurch to the right.
“It is still a small number of votes counted and we should not be in euphoria,” Željko Reiner, the HDZ speaker of the parliament, said on public television. The conservative HDZ won 61 seats while its centre-left opposition rivals, the Social Democrats (SDP), had 54, according to results from nearly all polling stations.
The centre-right Most (“Bridge”) party which wants to end Croatia’s “corrupt” 20-year-old two-party rule, was on 13 seats. The likely kingmaker has said any partner would have to promise to implement its reformist ideas. “I’m certain that we are the party that will have the privilege of forming the next stable Croatian government,” HDZ’s new moderate leader, Andrej Plenkovic, told supporters early on Monday.
The previous HDZ-Most government collapsed after just five months amid rows over public administration reforms and government appointments. The election was the country’s second in less than a year after the previous barely functioning coalition government led by the HDZ collapsed in June over a conflict of interest scandal after just five months in power.
Under its new leader, European parliamentarian Andrej Plenkovic, the HDZ, which led Croatia through its first turbulent years of independence and war after the breakup of Yugoslavia 25 years ago, looks to have regained ground lost to the SDP after the previous government’s acrimonious fall. However, the HDZ did not secure an absolute majority in the 151-seat parliament, and its former junior government partner, the Most party (“bridge” in Croatian), is likely to play kingmaker once again. The Most party came third with 13 seats.
Votes for three seats representing Croats abroad, who traditionally vote for the HDZ, have yet to be counted. 3.8 million Croatians were eligible to vote in the election, which came at a time of economic gloom and strained ties between neighbours in the volatile Balkans.
Near-definitive results are due at midnight local time, which is 10pm GMT on Monday. The previous HDZ-led coalition’s five-month rule was marked by a shift to the right amid a growing climate of intolerance, including attacks on independent media and minorities, notably ethnic Serbs.
In a sign of an aversion to a politics that has been dominated by populist gestures in recent months, Croats voted in smaller numbers than last time and lent support to populist parties, such as the leftist Zivi Zid (“Human Shield”) party, which went from one seat to seven so far. Authorities appeared to have turned a blind eye to a far-right surge that sparked global concern and brought already frosty ties with former enemy Serbia to their lowest level since Croatia’s 1990s independence war.
“It would be good if this election yielded political stability,” said Goran Uzelac from Zagreb just before he cast his ballot. “Unfortunately, I don’t think the biggest parties really want major reforms.” But the HDZ was aspiring to stay in power with the moderate Plenkovic, who has pledged an “Europe-oriented” government. The 46-year-old former member of the European parliament has repeatedly vowed to move the party away from populism and extremism to position it in the centre-right.
The new government will face a huge task in revitalising one of the European Union’s weakest economies, which is dominated by state enterprises and in which red tape deters private investment. His SDP rival, former prime minister Zoran Milanovic, 49, told supporters in Zagreb early on Monday that Croatia needed a stable government. “For the past months we had an unstable and destructive (one),” he added.
The EU wants its youngest member to tame high public debt, cut the budget deficit and improve the business climate to spur economic growth. Croatians may have lost enthusiasm after voting a second time in less than a year: by mid-afternoon turnout was nine points down on November polls.
Over the past months, politics have been dominated by populist rhetoric and gestures that have brought relations with neighbouring Serbia to their lowest point since the end of the 1990s Balkan wars. The close result suggests difficult talks loom on forming a government. With Plenkovic’s moderate agenda, HDZ will likely win the backing of minorities, notably Serbs.
Three years after joining the EU, the country’s record on securing European funds is poor, pointing to public administration shortcomings that contribute to macroeconomic imbalances that the European commission sees as excessive. Despite pledging a government of progress and tolerance, Milanovic sharpened his populist rhetoric during the campaign after disappointing voters with few reforms when in power before the HDZ coalition took control.
Parties offered few details during the campaign on how to deliver promised higher standards of living for the 4.3 million people of Croatia, where unemployment stands at 13%. He repeatedly criticised the Serbian prime minister, Aleksandar Vucic, over his ultranationalist wartime stance. Nearly a year of political deadlock has blocked reforms the former Yugoslav republic badly needs as it emerges from a six-year recession.
Growth of 2.5% is far short of the 4% needed to make a dent on living standards, analysts say. Interest payments on public debt eat up 3.5% of economic output. The economy, relying heavily on tourism along the country’s Adriatic coast, remains one of the EU’s weakest despite some recent positive indicators attributed to membership of the bloc.
The central bank has forecast growth of 2.3% this year. Unemployment stands at more than 13%, public debt has reached 85% of GDP, while the investment climate remains poor.