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| Syrian ceasefire deal - the Guardian briefing | Syrian ceasefire deal - the Guardian briefing |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| What is the aim of the deal? | What is the aim of the deal? |
| To bring a sustainable peace to war that has raged insatiably for five years and shows little sign of slowing. Syria’s war has become especially complex and destructive and could stay that way for many years yet. The effect outside Syria’s borders, of refugees and the creep of global terror, continues to raise the stakes. | To bring a sustainable peace to war that has raged insatiably for five years and shows little sign of slowing. Syria’s war has become especially complex and destructive and could stay that way for many years yet. The effect outside Syria’s borders, of refugees and the creep of global terror, continues to raise the stakes. |
| One concern for everyone involved has been the gradual blending of extremist groups among the mainstream anti-Assad rebels. The deal aims to disentangle this, isolating the extremists and providing aid to other groups. Russia and the US say this will ensure the mainstream groups are not bombed. For the first 48 hours fighting is to stop in areas held by non-extremists and aid deliveries are set to begin to cities under siege. | One concern for everyone involved has been the gradual blending of extremist groups among the mainstream anti-Assad rebels. The deal aims to disentangle this, isolating the extremists and providing aid to other groups. Russia and the US say this will ensure the mainstream groups are not bombed. For the first 48 hours fighting is to stop in areas held by non-extremists and aid deliveries are set to begin to cities under siege. |
| Why has it taken so long? | Why has it taken so long? |
| Trust has been impossible to build. Every previous multilateral attempt at a ceasefire has failed. Neither side has been willing to share power. The Syrian regime has preferred starvation sieges and widespread bombing of civilian areas to negotiations. The opposition has been unable to put forward a credible political alternative to rule Syria and failed to press home its early battlefield gains. | Trust has been impossible to build. Every previous multilateral attempt at a ceasefire has failed. Neither side has been willing to share power. The Syrian regime has preferred starvation sieges and widespread bombing of civilian areas to negotiations. The opposition has been unable to put forward a credible political alternative to rule Syria and failed to press home its early battlefield gains. |
| Meanwhile, the goals of the foreign stakeholders in the conflict, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US, are mostly in competition with each other. While everyone agrees it would be a good idea for the war to stop, no one has been able to draft the terms on how that could happen. | Meanwhile, the goals of the foreign stakeholders in the conflict, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US, are mostly in competition with each other. While everyone agrees it would be a good idea for the war to stop, no one has been able to draft the terms on how that could happen. |
| Will it be difficult to implement? | Will it be difficult to implement? |
| Russia and the US have had next to no common ground since Vladimir Putin sent his air force to prop up Assad in September 2015. The year since has seen Russia largely aim its firepower at opposition units, including US-vetted groups, who had been causing Assad problems, particularly around Hama, Latakia and the outskirts of Aleppo. It has at times also attacked Jabhat al-Nusra (which renamed itself Jabhat Fatah al-Sham after it announced a split from al-Qaida) and Isis. | Russia and the US have had next to no common ground since Vladimir Putin sent his air force to prop up Assad in September 2015. The year since has seen Russia largely aim its firepower at opposition units, including US-vetted groups, who had been causing Assad problems, particularly around Hama, Latakia and the outskirts of Aleppo. It has at times also attacked Jabhat al-Nusra (which renamed itself Jabhat Fatah al-Sham after it announced a split from al-Qaida) and Isis. |
| Russia’s aim has been to ensure that Assad cannot lose and to give the Syrian leader an advantage in subsequent negotiations. The US, meanwhile, has eschewed a lead role in the war, confining its involvement to defeating Isis in north-eastern Syria, using Kurdish forces as a proxy infantry supported by its air force. Washington claims that the Russians have been fighting to shore up Assad, rather than fighting terrorism. Moscow says its old adversary has done little to counter Isis, and brings few solutions to the bigger problem of what next for Syria. | Russia’s aim has been to ensure that Assad cannot lose and to give the Syrian leader an advantage in subsequent negotiations. The US, meanwhile, has eschewed a lead role in the war, confining its involvement to defeating Isis in north-eastern Syria, using Kurdish forces as a proxy infantry supported by its air force. Washington claims that the Russians have been fighting to shore up Assad, rather than fighting terrorism. Moscow says its old adversary has done little to counter Isis, and brings few solutions to the bigger problem of what next for Syria. |
| Opposition groups are deeply sceptical of the deal. They say that neither superpower has acted in good faith. And, even though the ceasefire means a halt in the near-constant bombing, they believe it favours Assad. Ousting the jihadis among them means giving up a layer of security that they don’t believe will be filled by either side. | Opposition groups are deeply sceptical of the deal. They say that neither superpower has acted in good faith. And, even though the ceasefire means a halt in the near-constant bombing, they believe it favours Assad. Ousting the jihadis among them means giving up a layer of security that they don’t believe will be filled by either side. |
| What does each side want? | What does each side want? |
| The US has been pushing for far greater humanitarian aid into areas besieged by the Syrian regime, as well as a stop to the bombing. Aleppo and parts of Damascus are central to this. Russia says it is willing to spare non-extremist opposition groups, but wants to know where they are. A joint US/Russian operation is central to determining future targets and Russia has said it will rein in the Syrian air force. If calm emerges, Moscow says moves could be made to a political transition, the form of which is not yet clear. | The US has been pushing for far greater humanitarian aid into areas besieged by the Syrian regime, as well as a stop to the bombing. Aleppo and parts of Damascus are central to this. Russia says it is willing to spare non-extremist opposition groups, but wants to know where they are. A joint US/Russian operation is central to determining future targets and Russia has said it will rein in the Syrian air force. If calm emerges, Moscow says moves could be made to a political transition, the form of which is not yet clear. |
| The opposition insists that civilian areas, which have been systematically targeted across much of the country, be spared, and that sieges of up to 18 rebel areas be lifted. | The opposition insists that civilian areas, which have been systematically targeted across much of the country, be spared, and that sieges of up to 18 rebel areas be lifted. |
| What are the sticking points? | What are the sticking points? |
| What constitutes an extremist is high among them. Throughout Russia’s intervention, which it says was focused on Isis, attacks on civilian sites, such as hospitals, bakeries, market places and schools, have been commonplace. Isis areas in Syria are clearly demarcated and are quite some distance from where the bulk of Russian attacks have taken place. Al-Qaida-aligned groups, such as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (which disavowed connections in July), present more of a problem. In Aleppo and Idlib in particular, they have blended with mainstream groups, often bringing more firepower to battles, and hold sway among some communities. | What constitutes an extremist is high among them. Throughout Russia’s intervention, which it says was focused on Isis, attacks on civilian sites, such as hospitals, bakeries, market places and schools, have been commonplace. Isis areas in Syria are clearly demarcated and are quite some distance from where the bulk of Russian attacks have taken place. Al-Qaida-aligned groups, such as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (which disavowed connections in July), present more of a problem. In Aleppo and Idlib in particular, they have blended with mainstream groups, often bringing more firepower to battles, and hold sway among some communities. |
| Rebel groups acknowledge the jihadis among them. They say that, while they do not share their values, or goals, without them they could not have defended themselves against attacks led by Russia and Iran. They say they have little reason to believe that one superpower that has ignored them and another that has repeatedly targeted them could now act as their protectors if they kicked the jihadis out. They also doubt whether Russia can truly ground Assad’s air force, which has caused widespread, often indiscriminate, damage in civilian areas. | Rebel groups acknowledge the jihadis among them. They say that, while they do not share their values, or goals, without them they could not have defended themselves against attacks led by Russia and Iran. They say they have little reason to believe that one superpower that has ignored them and another that has repeatedly targeted them could now act as their protectors if they kicked the jihadis out. They also doubt whether Russia can truly ground Assad’s air force, which has caused widespread, often indiscriminate, damage in civilian areas. |
| How will we know the ceasefire is working? | |
| At face value, if the bombs stop falling and aid access opens up. But the overriding problem is that there is no compliance mechanism. Both sides will be entrusted to enforce themselves. Russia will have primary responsibility to ensure that the Syrian Air Force does not bomb opposition areas deemed to be “jihadi free”. There are bound to be disputes over this issue. The United Nations has no formal input. | |
| Is the ceasefire a path to a viable solution? | |
| No political path is yet apparent, and this is another criticism of the deal. However, the ceasefire is being pitched as a trust-building measure, a necessary step before ways to put an end to the crisis can be meaningfully discussed. Previous summits in Geneva, where the Kerry/Lavrov pact was announced, have ended in spectacular failure. If the protagonists start to believe that outright victory is impossible, then there may be breathing space for negotiations. If the ceasefire holds, it could force that realisation. Therein lies its purpose. | No political path is yet apparent, and this is another criticism of the deal. However, the ceasefire is being pitched as a trust-building measure, a necessary step before ways to put an end to the crisis can be meaningfully discussed. Previous summits in Geneva, where the Kerry/Lavrov pact was announced, have ended in spectacular failure. If the protagonists start to believe that outright victory is impossible, then there may be breathing space for negotiations. If the ceasefire holds, it could force that realisation. Therein lies its purpose. |