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With U.S. Election in Sight, Ban Ki-moon Seeks Quick Action on Climate Accord With U.S. Election in Sight, Ban Ki-moon Seeks Quick Action on Climate Accord
(about 1 hour later)
WASHINGTON — As the United Nations General Assembly converges in New York on Tuesday, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is using the gathering of world leaders to rush the 2015 Paris climate change accord into legal force this year, hoping to bind all countries to its strictures for at least the next four years — regardless of the outcome of the presidential election in the United States.WASHINGTON — As the United Nations General Assembly converges in New York on Tuesday, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is using the gathering of world leaders to rush the 2015 Paris climate change accord into legal force this year, hoping to bind all countries to its strictures for at least the next four years — regardless of the outcome of the presidential election in the United States.
Mr. Ban’s push to nail down the legal commitments of at least 55 countries to the global agreement comes as Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee who has called climate change a hoax, rises in the polls. Should Mr. Trump become president before the Paris pact enters into force, he could make good on his vow to withdraw the United States from the agreement — even if President Obama has signed on to it. The absence of the world’s largest economy and second-largest greenhouse gas polluter would cripple the first accord binding nearly every country to actions that would reduce planet-warming pollution.Mr. Ban’s push to nail down the legal commitments of at least 55 countries to the global agreement comes as Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee who has called climate change a hoax, rises in the polls. Should Mr. Trump become president before the Paris pact enters into force, he could make good on his vow to withdraw the United States from the agreement — even if President Obama has signed on to it. The absence of the world’s largest economy and second-largest greenhouse gas polluter would cripple the first accord binding nearly every country to actions that would reduce planet-warming pollution.
“There’s a huge amount at stake in whether the United States is in the agreement or not,” said Robert C. Orr, dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and a special adviser to Mr. Ban. A withdrawal by the United States would “create a global diplomatic crisis,” he said.“There’s a huge amount at stake in whether the United States is in the agreement or not,” said Robert C. Orr, dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and a special adviser to Mr. Ban. A withdrawal by the United States would “create a global diplomatic crisis,” he said.
Mr. Ban’s push is highly unusual in the typically slow-moving world of complex United Nations accords. Historically, after nations have agreed to large treaties and accords at global summit meetings, years pass before the signatory governments complete the domestic legal and legislative processes required to translate global directives into domestic laws. The comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1996 but still has not entered into force. Mr. Ban’s push is highly unusual in the typically slow-moving world of complex United Nations accords. Historically, after nations have agreed to large treaties and accords at global summit meetings, years pass before the signatory governments complete the domestic legal and legislative processes required to translate global directives into domestic laws. The comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1996 but has still not entered into force.
Experts in international law said they could not think of an example of a major United Nations agreement entering into legal force less than a year after it was finalized. The Paris deal was reached in December. At the time, the diplomats who forged the deal said that their goal was for it to enter into force by 2020.Experts in international law said they could not think of an example of a major United Nations agreement entering into legal force less than a year after it was finalized. The Paris deal was reached in December. At the time, the diplomats who forged the deal said that their goal was for it to enter into force by 2020.
But Mr. Ban has planned a ceremony at the United Nations on Sept. 21, when he hopes to announce that enough countries have ratified the deal, or pledged to ratify it, to ensure it will enter into force before the inauguration of the next American president. To do that, he would need at least 55 countries representing 55 percent of climate-change emissions.But Mr. Ban has planned a ceremony at the United Nations on Sept. 21, when he hopes to announce that enough countries have ratified the deal, or pledged to ratify it, to ensure it will enter into force before the inauguration of the next American president. To do that, he would need at least 55 countries representing 55 percent of climate-change emissions.
“This would be entry into force in a lightning-quick way, if it happens,” said David Waskow, an expert in climate change diplomacy at the World Resources Institute, a Washington research organization.“This would be entry into force in a lightning-quick way, if it happens,” said David Waskow, an expert in climate change diplomacy at the World Resources Institute, a Washington research organization.
Once the requisite signatures are secured, each country will be legally bound to the deal for at least four years — even if the country’s government does not participate in the accord. That would be enough to keep the United States legally bound to the Paris deal through the first term of a Trump presidency.Once the requisite signatures are secured, each country will be legally bound to the deal for at least four years — even if the country’s government does not participate in the accord. That would be enough to keep the United States legally bound to the Paris deal through the first term of a Trump presidency.
To date, at least 27 countries representing about 40 percent of global emissions have ratified the deal. But the bulk of those emissions — nearly 40 percent — are produced by two countries, the United States and China. Mr. Obama and President Xi Jinping of China jointly announced their countries’ adoption of the Paris deal this month at a summit meeting in Hangzhou, China.To date, at least 27 countries representing about 40 percent of global emissions have ratified the deal. But the bulk of those emissions — nearly 40 percent — are produced by two countries, the United States and China. Mr. Obama and President Xi Jinping of China jointly announced their countries’ adoption of the Paris deal this month at a summit meeting in Hangzhou, China.
But it is far from certain that Mr. Ban can get enough countries to add up to the 55 percent threshold. No other countries have close to as much carbon emissions as China or the United States. The world’s third-largest carbon polluter, India, which emits about 7 percent of the world’s emissions, has been unclear about its plans to sign on. Although India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, emerged as a key broker of the Paris agreement, many members of his government remain wary of taking the final steps to clinch the deal. But it is far from certain that Mr. Ban can get enough countries to add up to the 55 percent threshold. No other countries have close to as many carbon emissions as China or the United States. The world’s third-largest carbon polluter, India, which emits about 7 percent of the world’s emissions, has been unclear about its plans to sign on. Although India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, emerged as a key broker of the Paris agreement, many members of his government remain wary of taking the final steps to clinch the deal.
Rajendra M. Abhyankar, a former Indian minister of foreign affairs who is now a professor at the Indiana University, said, “While many in our government want to go forward with the terms of the agreement, there is still a feeling that ratifying the agreement would be tying our hands in terms of what we can do economically.” Rajendra M. Abhyankar, a former Indian minister of foreign affairs who is now a professor at Indiana University, said, “While many in our government want to go forward with the terms of the agreement, there is still a feeling that ratifying the agreement would be tying our hands in terms of what we can do economically.”
“And from an international point of view, the sense is, why should we sign on if the United States might one day drop out?” he said. “The United States has signed on for now, but what will happen once Trump comes?”“And from an international point of view, the sense is, why should we sign on if the United States might one day drop out?” he said. “The United States has signed on for now, but what will happen once Trump comes?”
Another question mark is the European Union, whose 28 member countries together account for about 10 percent of global emissions. Under the Paris agreement, the union has pledged to collectively reduce its emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. But the union cannot legally ratify that pledge until all 28 countries have separately ratified it in their own parliaments, a process that could take years. The British vote to leave the European Union could further complicate that process.Another question mark is the European Union, whose 28 member countries together account for about 10 percent of global emissions. Under the Paris agreement, the union has pledged to collectively reduce its emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. But the union cannot legally ratify that pledge until all 28 countries have separately ratified it in their own parliaments, a process that could take years. The British vote to leave the European Union could further complicate that process.
Within the union, advocates of the Paris deal who fear a Trump presidency have pushed for new legislation that would allow the body to quickly ratify the Paris deal with executive authority — or would allow individual countries to ratify it separately from the union. But those proposals are already creating political rifts within the European body.Within the union, advocates of the Paris deal who fear a Trump presidency have pushed for new legislation that would allow the body to quickly ratify the Paris deal with executive authority — or would allow individual countries to ratify it separately from the union. But those proposals are already creating political rifts within the European body.
In the face of such difficulties, Mr. Ban has redoubled his diplomatic efforts. In recent weeks, he has personally met with or telephoned dozens of world leaders, including Mr. Modi, to urge them to complete their ratification of the Paris deal by Sept. 21. At the Chinese summit meeting of the Group of 20 largest industrial economies this month, he pressed the issue with every world leader present, according to aides. In the face of such difficulties, Mr. Ban has redoubled his diplomatic efforts. In recent weeks, he has met with or telephoned dozens of world leaders, including Mr. Modi, to urge them to complete their ratification of the Paris deal by Sept. 21. At the Chinese summit meeting of the Group of 20 largest industrial economies this month, he pressed the issue with every world leader present, according to aides.
He is seeing some success. On Monday, Brazil, which emits about 2 percent of global emissions, announced that it had completed its domestic ratification of the Paris deal. That came as a surprise to many, since Brazil’s climate pledge had been a signature policy of Dilma Rousseff, the country’s recently impeached president.He is seeing some success. On Monday, Brazil, which emits about 2 percent of global emissions, announced that it had completed its domestic ratification of the Paris deal. That came as a surprise to many, since Brazil’s climate pledge had been a signature policy of Dilma Rousseff, the country’s recently impeached president.
The governments of Canada, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, which together represent about 5 percent of global emissions, have said they expect to complete or pledge to complete their ratifications this month.The governments of Canada, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, which together represent about 5 percent of global emissions, have said they expect to complete or pledge to complete their ratifications this month.
The government of Japan, which emits about 3 percent of global emissions, is expected to take up its Paris ratification in a special parliamentary session this fall.The government of Japan, which emits about 3 percent of global emissions, is expected to take up its Paris ratification in a special parliamentary session this fall.
Still, global climate policy advocates are preparing to move forward without the United States, if necessary. “From the outside, from Europe, when you hear what Donald Trump says, it is somewhat difficult to take seriously,” said Laurence Tubiana, the French climate change envoy. “But even without the United States, the agreement will eventually enter into force.” Still, global climate policy advocates are preparing to move forward without the United States if necessary. “From the outside, from Europe, when you hear what Donald Trump says, it is somewhat difficult to take seriously,” said Laurence Tubiana, the French climate change envoy. “But even without the United States, the agreement will eventually enter into force.”
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.