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Poll Shows Tight Race for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Voters’ View of a Donald Trump Presidency: Big Risks and Rewards
(about 5 hours later)
With less than eight weeks before Election Day, Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tight contest, with both candidates still struggling to win the confidence of their respective bases, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds. Most voters consider Donald J. Trump a risky choice for president, saying he lacks the right temperament and values, but he is seen as more transformative and better at handling the economy than Hillary Clinton, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic nominee, has the support of 46 percent of likely voters nationwide, to 44 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republican, including those who said they were leaning toward a candidate. Looking more broadly at all registered voters, Mrs. Clinton holds a wider edge, 46 to 41 percent. Mrs. Clinton, despite being as disliked as Mr. Trump, is seen as a safer option. Majorities of voters say she has the temperament for the job and would better handle foreign policy. Only 36 percent of them, however, view her as an agent of change. That perception deeply worries some Clinton campaign advisers, who want the race to hinge on Mr. Trump’s character rather than voters’ desire to upend the status quo.
In a four-way race, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are tied at 42 percent each. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, has the support of 8 percent of likely voters, and the Green Party nominee, Jill Stein, takes 4 percent. With less than eight weeks until Election Day, the two candidates are locked in a close contest in which the challenge from third-party candidates may make a difference. Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic nominee, has the support of 46 percent of likely voters nationwide, compared with 44 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republican; that result includes voters who said they were leaning toward a candidate.
The third-party candidates draw their strongest support from younger voters. Twenty-six percent of voters ages 18 to 29 say they plan to vote for Mr. Johnson, and another 10 percent back Ms. Stein. A little more than one in five political independents say they will vote for one of the third-party candidates. Looking more broadly at all registered voters, Mrs. Clinton holds a wider edge, 46 to 41 percent, driven by her support among women, minorities and college graduates. Getting registered but unlikely voters to the polls in November is a large challenge for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign.
Discontent with the major party candidates is widespread. Among those who say they intend to vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, slightly more than half express strong support. The rest say that they harbor reservations about their candidate, or that they are simply voting to thwart the other nominee. Mr. Trump has an advantage among men, whites and less educated voters.
Over all, just 43 percent of likely voters describe themselves as very enthusiastic about casting a ballot in November. Fifty-one percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters say they are very enthusiastic about voting; 43 percent of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters say they are very enthusiastic. In a four-way race, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are tied at 42 percent each. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, has the support of 8 percent of likely voters, and the Green Party nominee, Jill Stein, takes 4 percent. Mr. Johnson is hoping to qualify for the coming presidential debates, but he is short of the requirement of reaching 15 percent support in an average of major polls.
The race has clearly grown tighter in recent weeks. National polling averages show that Mrs. Clinton’s margin over Mr. Trump has narrowed from eight points in early August to two points today. Among likely voters younger than 30, Mrs. Clinton’s support drops 10 points in a four-way race. Their support for Mr. Trump falls seven points, but he is not relying on young voters as much.
Polls in a number of key swing states have narrowed in the past week as well. Mr. Trump now leads in polling averages in Ohio and Florida, for example, reversing leads that Mrs. Clinton had held for months. Projections of Mrs. Clinton’s electoral college advantage have also shown a tightening based on recent polls. The race has clearly grown tighter in recent weeks. National polling averages have narrowed markedly from early August to today.
Mrs. Clinton found herself under attack last week for suggesting that half of Mr. Trump’s supporters held views that made them “deplorables,” and for her campaign’s attempts to conceal her pneumonia diagnosis. The Times/CBS News poll was conducted from Sept. 9 to 13, so many of those interviewed were aware of the controversies. Polls in a number of key swing states, including Ohio and Florida, have narrowed in the past week as well. Projections of Mrs. Clinton’s Electoral College advantage have also shown a tightening based on recent polls.
Mr. Trump hired new campaign leadership in mid-August and has been more disciplined in his public statements. His poll numbers have been steadily rising. Voters expressed discontent with both candidates. Among those who say they intend to vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, slightly more than half express strong support. The rest say that they harbor reservations about their candidate or that they are voting simply to thwart the other nominee.
Mrs. Clinton continues to outpace Mr. Trump among women, nonwhites and younger voters, while Mr. Trump leads among whites, 51 to 40 percent. Despite the voters’ misgivings, the major-party nominees are consolidating support among their party faithful. Mrs. Clinton commands support of 87 percent of Democrats, while Mr. Trump is supported by 85 percent of Republicans.
Among white women, the candidates are virtually tied: 46 percent for Mrs. Clinton and 45 percent for Mr. Trump. The poll results offer more cause for concern than confidence for Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton as they prepare for their first debate, on Sept. 26, and as early voting begins in some states next weekend. Their favorability ratings remain stubbornly low, with only about one-third of voters seeing each of them positively, despite the candidates’ attempts to use their conventions, commercials and public appearances to persuade voters to see them in a new light.
Mrs. Clinton’s support is notably strong among college graduates, particularly whites. She leads by 11 points among white likely voters with a college degree; if polling holds, she would be the first Democrat in 60 years to win among this group. A majority of voters say Mr. Trump does not care about the needs or problems of Hispanics; most voters see Mrs. Clinton as caring about Hispanics, and a majority of voters agree with her view that most illegal immigrants in the country should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship.
This is the first Times/CBS News poll of the election cycle to include a measure of likely voters. The nationwide telephone survey reached 1,433 registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. To achieve a sample that reflected the probable electorate, these voters were weighted by their responses to questions about voting history, attention to the campaign and likelihood of voting. The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,433 registered voters from Sept. 9 to 13 on cellphones and landlines. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters.
With Mrs. Clinton sidelined by illness this week, Mr. Trump has vigorously pressed his case. He promoted a new plan to support working parents on Tuesday, and released a partial account of his medical status on Wednesday during a taping of “The Dr. Oz Show.” Mr. Trump’s temperament stands out as potentially his most damaging vulnerability, as his penchant for insults and provocations often undercuts his political message. Trump advisers see the televised debates as Mr. Trump’s greatest opportunity to reassure people about his personality, but he starts off in a weak position, with 64 percent of voters saying he does not have the right temperament to be president.
Poll participants expressed ambivalence about the need for more information on the candidates’ medical histories. For each candidate, just 45 percent of registered voters said they wanted to see more medical records released. (Questions about Mr. Trump’s and Mrs. Clinton’s medical records were asked starting on Sunday afternoon, after news broke that Mrs. Clinton fell ill at a ceremony commemorating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.) Sixty-seven percent of voters see Mr. Trump as a risky choice for president, compared with 51 percent who hold that view about Mrs. Clinton — a surprising number in itself given that she has been a president’s spouse, a senator and a secretary of state.
Mr. Johnson’s showing of 8 percent support in this poll will make it difficult for him to qualify for the first presidential debate, on Sept. 26. Under the rules set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, a candidate must reach an average of 15 percent support in five major news media polls, including the Times/CBS News poll. Another poll included in the average used by the commission, the Washington Post/ABC News poll, had Mr. Johnson at 9 percent support last week. For Trump advisers, the image of Mr. Trump as a gamble comes with an upside. They concede that he is most likely to lose the election if a majority of voters view him as dangerous or reckless. But if he can persuade people to see him simply as unpredictable — even cagey in a strategic sense — as well as committed to disrupting the federal government, voters could regard him as worth taking a chance on for four years while looking to his advisers and Congress as a check on his power.
Several Trump supporters said in follow-up interviews that they believed he was worth the risk, given the economic and security challenges facing the nation. Forty-eight percent of voters think Mr. Trump could bring real change to Washington, a 12-point edge over Mrs. Clinton; another 48 percent think he could not bring change.
“The risky part with Trump is the fact of his rhetoric, how he says things,” said Patrick Kellegher, 52, a political independent and a retired deputy sheriff from Anaconda, Mont. “But I think he is outside the known government circles.” He added, “I think Trump will bring about real change because he’s looking at it through a different scope.”
The candidates also face continued doubts about their honesty. Of the two, Mrs. Clinton has tried more visibly to address misgivings about her trustworthiness, by releasing decades of tax returns and more details about her health than Mr. Trump has. Yet one stain on her reputation is proving indelible: About seven in 10 voters say she did something wrong when she used a private email server as secretary of state, including 45 percent who say she did something illegal.
Concerns about her judgment linger even among some of her supporters, who say she could have been more forthcoming about her email practices before they grew into a political controversy and the focus of a scathing F.B.I. report.
“I don’t think she’s been dishonest or untrustworthy in a way that disqualifies her to be president, but she shouldn’t have worried so much about political ramifications and come clean up front,” said Lindsay Dofelmier, 36, a lawyer in Houston who is supporting Mrs. Clinton.
Mr. Trump has yet to release any of his tax returns, a break with political tradition that goes back decades, and has been far less specific than Mrs. Clinton on many personal and political questions, including his policy proposals. Asked if it was necessary for Mr. Trump to release his tax returns, 59 percent of voters said it was. Forty-five percent of voters said they would like the candidates to release more medical records.