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| The Conroy conundrum: enforcer's departure leaves Bill Shorten exposed The Conroy conundrum: enforcer's departure leaves Bill Shorten exposed | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Stephen Conroy and Bill Shorten have known one another since Shorten was a teenager and Conroy was in his early 20s. | Stephen Conroy and Bill Shorten have known one another since Shorten was a teenager and Conroy was in his early 20s. |
| While their personal relationship is complicated, littered with the inevitable ups and downs of relationships conducted in a blood sport like politics, their bond is fraternal, forged in the power structures of the Labor party and back through the industrial wing. | While their personal relationship is complicated, littered with the inevitable ups and downs of relationships conducted in a blood sport like politics, their bond is fraternal, forged in the power structures of the Labor party and back through the industrial wing. |
| Conroy is a central figure in Labor politics, a critical player in the party’s right wing and a figure with the institutional authority to fix problems for Shorten. | Conroy is a central figure in Labor politics, a critical player in the party’s right wing and a figure with the institutional authority to fix problems for Shorten. |
| His absence from politics portends one thing: trouble for the leader. The question is, how much trouble? | His absence from politics portends one thing: trouble for the leader. The question is, how much trouble? |
| Critical to Shorten’s leadership of the federal parliamentary party are the complicated power-sharing arrangements negotiated between the right and the left factions in Victoria. | Critical to Shorten’s leadership of the federal parliamentary party are the complicated power-sharing arrangements negotiated between the right and the left factions in Victoria. |
| The Victorian power axis helped deliver Shorten the Labor leadership at the expense of Anthony Albanese in 2013 and these arrangements maintain stability so, by and large, there aren’t unproductive fights over issues like the carve up of seats or about preselections. | The Victorian power axis helped deliver Shorten the Labor leadership at the expense of Anthony Albanese in 2013 and these arrangements maintain stability so, by and large, there aren’t unproductive fights over issues like the carve up of seats or about preselections. |
| This arrangement also underwrites the Victorian state Labor government. | This arrangement also underwrites the Victorian state Labor government. |
| The various deals have been negotiated with an eye to the future, they stipulate various undertakings years in advance, so they won’t be upset unless the right faction suddenly develops an interest in redrawing the terms of engagement. | The various deals have been negotiated with an eye to the future, they stipulate various undertakings years in advance, so they won’t be upset unless the right faction suddenly develops an interest in redrawing the terms of engagement. |
| But that future-proofing notwithstanding, the departure of a central figure such as Conroy unsettles the internal dynamics. | But that future-proofing notwithstanding, the departure of a central figure such as Conroy unsettles the internal dynamics. |
| When enforcers leave the the arena, there is a natural response. People test the limits of their own authority and the patience of their rivals. It’s part of resetting the boundaries. | When enforcers leave the the arena, there is a natural response. People test the limits of their own authority and the patience of their rivals. It’s part of resetting the boundaries. |
| Even before Conroy’s departure, the left faction, led by key figures in New South Wales, recently moved decisively against Kim Carr, the figure who alongside Conroy minds house for Shorten. Carr was recently dumped from the national left ticket for the shadow ministry and launched a successful rearguard action to remain on the frontbench. | Even before Conroy’s departure, the left faction, led by key figures in New South Wales, recently moved decisively against Kim Carr, the figure who alongside Conroy minds house for Shorten. Carr was recently dumped from the national left ticket for the shadow ministry and launched a successful rearguard action to remain on the frontbench. |
| New South Wales has had its own trouble in recent weeks, with the departure of one of their key institutional figures, Sam Dastyari, from the frontbench – a figure Shorten was very reluctant to move – over a fundraising imbroglio. | New South Wales has had its own trouble in recent weeks, with the departure of one of their key institutional figures, Sam Dastyari, from the frontbench – a figure Shorten was very reluctant to move – over a fundraising imbroglio. |
| But Dastyari isn’t jumping out of the arena, he’s just resting a spell on the interchange bench. | But Dastyari isn’t jumping out of the arena, he’s just resting a spell on the interchange bench. |
| It is too early to say how the power dynamics will ultimately play out but one thing is immediately obvious. Conroy’s departure from politics will further embolden the NSW branch of the party, which is, of course, the place where the main future leadership contenders reside: Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek. | It is too early to say how the power dynamics will ultimately play out but one thing is immediately obvious. Conroy’s departure from politics will further embolden the NSW branch of the party, which is, of course, the place where the main future leadership contenders reside: Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek. |