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| London politics: Hackney just keeps on getting more Labour | London politics: Hackney just keeps on getting more Labour |
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| Labour won a large and expected win in Thursday’s by-election for a new executive mayor of Hackney, following Jules Pipe’s appointment as Sadiq Khan’s deputy London mayor for planning, regeneration and skills. His successor, Philip Glanville had filled in for Pipe since his departure in July and was the borough’s cabinet member for housing. He strolled to victory, taking a crushing 68.9% of the vote. This confirms that Hackney is one of the most solidly Labour places in London or anywhere else, but the overall outcome raises some intriguing wider issues too. | Labour won a large and expected win in Thursday’s by-election for a new executive mayor of Hackney, following Jules Pipe’s appointment as Sadiq Khan’s deputy London mayor for planning, regeneration and skills. His successor, Philip Glanville had filled in for Pipe since his departure in July and was the borough’s cabinet member for housing. He strolled to victory, taking a crushing 68.9% of the vote. This confirms that Hackney is one of the most solidly Labour places in London or anywhere else, but the overall outcome raises some intriguing wider issues too. |
| Turnout was as massively low as Glanville’s triumph was hugely easy - just 32,778, or 18.6%, of the registered electorate of 178,203. It was the lowest turnout yet for any London borough mayor vote held on a day when there were no other big elections on in the same place: inaugural elections to such posts held back in 2002 in Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney itself persuaded around 25% of voters make the effort while 37.7% turned out for last June’s re-run of the voided 2014 Tower Hamlets mayoral poll. | Turnout was as massively low as Glanville’s triumph was hugely easy - just 32,778, or 18.6%, of the registered electorate of 178,203. It was the lowest turnout yet for any London borough mayor vote held on a day when there were no other big elections on in the same place: inaugural elections to such posts held back in 2002 in Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney itself persuaded around 25% of voters make the effort while 37.7% turned out for last June’s re-run of the voided 2014 Tower Hamlets mayoral poll. |
| The ghostliness of the polling stations - which I saw for myself, being a Hackney resident - was the greater for 40% of votes being cast by post. The turnout figure is disappointing, though not, perhaps, surprising. Much of the campaigning took place during the summer, the London mayor and EU referendum battles might have induced voter fatigue, and supporters of other parties might have been disincentivised by the growing strength of Labour in Hackney this century, as the borough emerged from a period of complete chaos at the end of the 1990s (all splendidly documented here for Election Data by Andrew Teale). | The ghostliness of the polling stations - which I saw for myself, being a Hackney resident - was the greater for 40% of votes being cast by post. The turnout figure is disappointing, though not, perhaps, surprising. Much of the campaigning took place during the summer, the London mayor and EU referendum battles might have induced voter fatigue, and supporters of other parties might have been disincentivised by the growing strength of Labour in Hackney this century, as the borough emerged from a period of complete chaos at the end of the 1990s (all splendidly documented here for Election Data by Andrew Teale). |
| But Glanville will be pleased that Labour’s share of the vote was even greater than for the last of Pipe’s four wins, in 2014. Not only did he emulate his predecessor in that year and in 2010 by taking more than 50% of first preferences under the supplementary vote system, thereby again leaving no need for a second preference run-off, he also increased the Labour slice of the pie by 8.5%. | But Glanville will be pleased that Labour’s share of the vote was even greater than for the last of Pipe’s four wins, in 2014. Not only did he emulate his predecessor in that year and in 2010 by taking more than 50% of first preferences under the supplementary vote system, thereby again leaving no need for a second preference run-off, he also increased the Labour slice of the pie by 8.5%. |
| This was largely at the expense of the Green Party, whose candidate finished second as two years ago, but with 4.3% less of the vote, securing 13.2% in all. The Conservative hopeful finished third, with 10.8%. The Tories have slipped back in mayoral contests over the years, having finished second in 2002, 2006 and third (to the Lib Dems) in 2010. | This was largely at the expense of the Green Party, whose candidate finished second as two years ago, but with 4.3% less of the vote, securing 13.2% in all. The Conservative hopeful finished third, with 10.8%. The Tories have slipped back in mayoral contests over the years, having finished second in 2002, 2006 and third (to the Lib Dems) in 2010. |
| What explains the ongoing consolidation of Labour power in Hackney? Running the council efficiently for most of this century won’t have done the party any harm, as the borough has gradually shed its once gruesome reputation for rampant criminality and bad secondary schools. The party is well-organised on the ground. Demographic change, probably encouraged by the above, might have helped too. | What explains the ongoing consolidation of Labour power in Hackney? Running the council efficiently for most of this century won’t have done the party any harm, as the borough has gradually shed its once gruesome reputation for rampant criminality and bad secondary schools. The party is well-organised on the ground. Demographic change, probably encouraged by the above, might have helped too. |
| There’s been a huge rise in Hackney’s population and, at the same time, a shift in its social composition. While the absolute numbers of people defined as being “in poverty” have remained almost the same, the proportion in high level occupations has risen - in 2014, two thirds of Hackney residents were employ in managerial, professional and technical roles. There’s also been a rise in the percentage of young people aged between 20 and 29. | There’s been a huge rise in Hackney’s population and, at the same time, a shift in its social composition. While the absolute numbers of people defined as being “in poverty” have remained almost the same, the proportion in high level occupations has risen - in 2014, two thirds of Hackney residents were employ in managerial, professional and technical roles. There’s also been a rise in the percentage of young people aged between 20 and 29. |
| Given Labour’s tightening grip on power, it seems that these changes have been mostly to its advantage, with the in-coming middle classes being of liberal-left persuasion. Local MP Diane Abbott has wittily observed that most of the Guardian’s staff seem to live in Stoke Newington, a largely prosperous part of her rock solid seat. She’s not far wrong. The same trends might have helped the Greens up the Hackney league table in recent times too, perhaps especially - if you’ll indulge the cliches and speculation - the very visible influx of hipster youth. | Given Labour’s tightening grip on power, it seems that these changes have been mostly to its advantage, with the in-coming middle classes being of liberal-left persuasion. Local MP Diane Abbott has wittily observed that most of the Guardian’s staff seem to live in Stoke Newington, a largely prosperous part of her rock solid seat. She’s not far wrong. The same trends might have helped the Greens up the Hackney league table in recent times too, perhaps especially - if you’ll indulge the cliches and speculation - the very visible influx of hipster youth. |
| So why did they drop back in relation to Labour last week? The same thing occurred in a recent by-election for a council seat, which Labour’s candidate won very comfortably with an 11.1% increased vote share compared with 2014 and the Greens coming second with a 13% drop. | So why did they drop back in relation to Labour last week? The same thing occurred in a recent by-election for a council seat, which Labour’s candidate won very comfortably with an 11.1% increased vote share compared with 2014 and the Greens coming second with a 13% drop. |
| An obvious first thought is that Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of Labour may have persuaded some on the left in Hackney who’d switched to the Greens to return to the party. (Certainly, Corbyn admirers on Twitter have claimed those results prove that their man is no vote loser. The problem there is that, even if Hackney Labour has been helped by a Corbyn factor, Hackney, like most of London, is very unlike the rest of the country). | |
| Glanville’s headline pledge was to devote himself to “building a Hackney that works for everyone”, expressing an appreciation in the Town Hall that the benefits of the borough’s growing economic prosperity aren’t being shared widely enough. He says he intends to double council house building and create a company to deliver Mayor Khan’s London Living Rent private sector homes. He also aims to enlarge the number of childminders in Hackney, another policy that could create employment and help boost incomes. The challenges he faces are very similar to those confronting Khan. Wish him well. |