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Bank of Japan's stimulus cheers markets, as UK borrowing overshoots target – business live Bank of Japan's stimulus cheers markets, as UK borrowing overshoots target – business live
(35 minutes later)
11.58am BST
11:58
Every cloud has a darker cloud behind it....
Actually, for the time being the @OECD sounds much more concerned about collapsing world trade growth than Brexit pic.twitter.com/EmXrhawlIz
11.53am BST
11:53
In a busy morning for Brexity data, the Bank of England’s regional agents have reported that UK firms have cut back on investment intentions, and hiring plans, since the Referendum.
But there are signs of a pick-up in August.
Here’s the key points:
More here:
Economist Rupert Seggins has helpfully charted today’s data:
BoE agents scores for investment intentions are a rough signal & they've weakened, but they're not indicating an investment collapse in Q3. pic.twitter.com/8J4IRMAhOx
Updated
at 11.53am BST
11.38am BST
11:38
Housing market slows, but avoids Brexit shock
Julia Kollewe
Property transaction figures from HMRC out today show that there hasn’t been the market crash that many feared following the Brexit vote in June. Residential property transactions were broadly flat between July and August, albeit down 6.1% from a year ago.
The provisional figures show that 97,660 homes were bought in August, only slightly lower than the 97,710 that changed hands in July. (These are seasonally adjusted figures.)
Commercial deals picked up again, after a drop in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote to 10,010 in July from 10,630 in June. Non-residential transactions totalled 10,620 in August, up 6.1% from July and 8% higher than a year ago.
David Brown, chief executive of London estate agents Marsh & Parsons, said of the residential figures:
“The total numbers for Q1 and Q2 of 2016 were astronomically high compared to the corresponding period last year. Consequently the market is still levelling after the frenzy we saw as people clambered to meet the April Stamp Duty deadline. This, along with the Bank of England’s plans to curb Buy-to-let mortgages, caused such an enormous spike in activity, that even if we had not had the referendum vote, we would have expected to spend a good few months seeing the market recover to some level of normality.
“At Marsh & Parsons we are certainly seeing good levels of activity, and it is particularly pleasing to see a number of enquiries resurfacing from people who had put their property searches on hold a couple of months ago. We are feeling optimistic about the remainder of the year.”
11.22am BST11.22am BST
11:2211:22
The Financial Times also reckons Britain is going to miss its borrowing target this year:The Financial Times also reckons Britain is going to miss its borrowing target this year:
The UK government seems to be overshooting its borrowing forecasts again, regular as clockwork https://t.co/g65iN32hJN pic.twitter.com/XhmPlwBowgThe UK government seems to be overshooting its borrowing forecasts again, regular as clockwork https://t.co/g65iN32hJN pic.twitter.com/XhmPlwBowg
The old targets may be academic, though, if Philip Hammond does tear up George Osborne’s fiscal targets in two months time....The old targets may be academic, though, if Philip Hammond does tear up George Osborne’s fiscal targets in two months time....
11.15am BST11.15am BST
11:1511:15
This chart shows how the OECD have just halved their forecast for UK growth next year, from 2% to 1%.This chart shows how the OECD have just halved their forecast for UK growth next year, from 2% to 1%.
But Britain is one of the few countries whose 2016 growth has been revised UP (by 0.1% to 1.8%):But Britain is one of the few countries whose 2016 growth has been revised UP (by 0.1% to 1.8%):
The latest #OECD stats...avert your eyes unless you are Brazil (and they are still in recession for another year). UK post Brexit cuts too. pic.twitter.com/W8pGnqs43hThe latest #OECD stats...avert your eyes unless you are Brazil (and they are still in recession for another year). UK post Brexit cuts too. pic.twitter.com/W8pGnqs43h
11.12am BST11.12am BST
11:1211:12
Hammond sees difficult times aheadHammond sees difficult times ahead
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, has responded to the OECD’s warning that UK growth be robust this year, but slow in 2017.Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, has responded to the OECD’s warning that UK growth be robust this year, but slow in 2017.
He says:He says:
“The underlying strength in the UK economy will support growth this year, and we have seen that in the labour market where employment is at a record high.“The underlying strength in the UK economy will support growth this year, and we have seen that in the labour market where employment is at a record high.
The OECD highlights uncertainty in their outlook, and while I recognise that there may be some difficult times ahead, I am confident that we have the tools necessary to support the economy as we adjust to a new relationship with the EU and take advantage of the opportunities that it offers.”The OECD highlights uncertainty in their outlook, and while I recognise that there may be some difficult times ahead, I am confident that we have the tools necessary to support the economy as we adjust to a new relationship with the EU and take advantage of the opportunities that it offers.”
That reference to ‘tools’ suggests Hammond is planning to use November’s Autumn Statement to reset the government’s fiscal plan - perhaps through additional infrastructure spending funded by more borrowing?That reference to ‘tools’ suggests Hammond is planning to use November’s Autumn Statement to reset the government’s fiscal plan - perhaps through additional infrastructure spending funded by more borrowing?
11.01am BST11.01am BST
11:0111:01
PwC: Hammond likely to miss borrowing targetsPwC: Hammond likely to miss borrowing targets
Today’s public finance figures show that Britain has borrowed £5bn less this financial year, compared with a year ago.Today’s public finance figures show that Britain has borrowed £5bn less this financial year, compared with a year ago.
Encouraging...but not enough to hit this year’s deficit targets.Encouraging...but not enough to hit this year’s deficit targets.
John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, explains:John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, explains:
“It may still be very difficult for the Chancellor to meet the March Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for 2016/17, which envisaged public borrowing being £21 billion lower than the latest estimate for 2015/16.“It may still be very difficult for the Chancellor to meet the March Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for 2016/17, which envisaged public borrowing being £21 billion lower than the latest estimate for 2015/16.
We expect that the OBR will revise up its borrowing projections materially in November and the Chancellor is unlikely to seek to offset this at a time when the priority is to support the economy in the uncertain period following the Brexit vote.We expect that the OBR will revise up its borrowing projections materially in November and the Chancellor is unlikely to seek to offset this at a time when the priority is to support the economy in the uncertain period following the Brexit vote.
10.49am BST10.49am BST
10:4910:49
OECD u-turns on Brexit...and cuts global growth forecastsOECD u-turns on Brexit...and cuts global growth forecasts
Speaking of Brexit...The west’s leading economic thinktank has backtracked on its warning that the UK would suffer instant damage if the public voted to leave the European Union.Speaking of Brexit...The west’s leading economic thinktank has backtracked on its warning that the UK would suffer instant damage if the public voted to leave the European Union.
In a new report, the OECD has thrown its weight behind plans by Theresa May to provide fresh post-referendum support to growth in November’s autumn statement.In a new report, the OECD has thrown its weight behind plans by Theresa May to provide fresh post-referendum support to growth in November’s autumn statement.
Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, reports:Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, reports:
Until recently a staunch supporter of George Osborne’s austerity plan, the OECD said it was appropriate for the new chancellor, Philip Hammond, to increase public spending in his first major policy statement later this year.Until recently a staunch supporter of George Osborne’s austerity plan, the OECD said it was appropriate for the new chancellor, Philip Hammond, to increase public spending in his first major policy statement later this year.
The thinktank said it was still predicting a sharp slowdown in the economy, but that this would not happen until 2017. It said that the expected negative effects on the rest of the global economy of Brexit – compared in June to the equivalent of a hard landing for China – had also been delayed.The thinktank said it was still predicting a sharp slowdown in the economy, but that this would not happen until 2017. It said that the expected negative effects on the rest of the global economy of Brexit – compared in June to the equivalent of a hard landing for China – had also been delayed.
The OECD now expects the UK to grow by 1.8% this year, a small increase on its old forecast. But this will fall to 1% in 2017, they fear.The OECD now expects the UK to grow by 1.8% this year, a small increase on its old forecast. But this will fall to 1% in 2017, they fear.
The OECD also cut its growth forecasts for the global economy; world GDP is now expected to rise by 3.2% in 2017, down from the 3.3% previously.The OECD also cut its growth forecasts for the global economy; world GDP is now expected to rise by 3.2% in 2017, down from the 3.3% previously.
10.41am BST10.41am BST
10:4110:41
10.37am BST10.37am BST
10:3710:37
Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), fears that Britain’s public finances will deteriorate in the months ahead:Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), fears that Britain’s public finances will deteriorate in the months ahead:
“Although government borrowing fell in August, it was by less than many had expected.“Although government borrowing fell in August, it was by less than many had expected.
“If the UK economy slows as we expect, cutting the deficit is likely to become increasingly problematic as materially weaker growth will make it more difficult to generate tax revenue.“If the UK economy slows as we expect, cutting the deficit is likely to become increasingly problematic as materially weaker growth will make it more difficult to generate tax revenue.
10.22am BST10.22am BST
10:2210:22
ONS chief economist Joe Grice says today’s data confirms that Britain hasn’t suffered a severe Brexit shock.ONS chief economist Joe Grice says today’s data confirms that Britain hasn’t suffered a severe Brexit shock.
“As the available information grows, the referendum result appears, so far, not to have had a major effect on the UK economy.“As the available information grows, the referendum result appears, so far, not to have had a major effect on the UK economy.
So it hasn’t fallen at the first fence but longer-term effects remain to be seen.”So it hasn’t fallen at the first fence but longer-term effects remain to be seen.”
Of course, Britain hasn’t even triggered Article 50 yet -- and no-one knows what kind of Soft Brexit, or Hard Brexit, we will end up with.Of course, Britain hasn’t even triggered Article 50 yet -- and no-one knows what kind of Soft Brexit, or Hard Brexit, we will end up with.
10.05am BST10.05am BST
10:0510:05
UK deficit reduction plan 'still off course'UK deficit reduction plan 'still off course'
The 8% improvement in August’s UK public finances isn’t enough to get the British government’s deficit reduction plan back on track.The 8% improvement in August’s UK public finances isn’t enough to get the British government’s deficit reduction plan back on track.
So says Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight. He’s encouraged that there’s no sign of a Brexit-induced meltdown, but fears the economy will slow in 2017 as negotiations with the European Union intensify.So says Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight. He’s encouraged that there’s no sign of a Brexit-induced meltdown, but fears the economy will slow in 2017 as negotiations with the European Union intensify.
Here’s his snap take:Here’s his snap take:
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.05am BSTat 10.05am BST
9.43am BST9.43am BST
09:4309:43
UK public finances show bigger deficit than expectedUK public finances show bigger deficit than expected
Newsflash from London: Britain’s monthly deficit shrank by 8% in August, despite the shock of June’s EU referendum.Newsflash from London: Britain’s monthly deficit shrank by 8% in August, despite the shock of June’s EU referendum.
The Office for National Statistics reports that the UK borrowed £10.546bn to balance the books last month, down from £11.47bn in August 2015 [that excludes the impact of our stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group].The Office for National Statistics reports that the UK borrowed £10.546bn to balance the books last month, down from £11.47bn in August 2015 [that excludes the impact of our stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group].
However, that’s more than expected - the City had forecast a monthly deficit of £10.0bn. So the government may still be struggling to hit this year’s borrowing target:However, that’s more than expected - the City had forecast a monthly deficit of £10.0bn. So the government may still be struggling to hit this year’s borrowing target:
Importantly, the ONS says there are no clear signs of any impact on the public finances, following the Brexit vote.Importantly, the ONS says there are no clear signs of any impact on the public finances, following the Brexit vote.
They report that income tax receipts were strong in August, but VAT receipts grew at their slowest pace since March 2015.They report that income tax receipts were strong in August, but VAT receipts grew at their slowest pace since March 2015.
More to follow....More to follow....
9.20am BST9.20am BST
09:2009:20
Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro smells a rat....Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro smells a rat....
"So we are clearly running out of stuff to buy but let's call it 'yield curve control' and hope nobody will notice""So we are clearly running out of stuff to buy but let's call it 'yield curve control' and hope nobody will notice"