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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| The Pundit Industrial Complex Strikes Back | The Pundit Industrial Complex Strikes Back |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Gail Collins: Arthur, how are you going to be watching the debate? Big party or sitting alone in a dark room, staring into the flickering images on a bulky laptop? | Gail Collins: Arthur, how are you going to be watching the debate? Big party or sitting alone in a dark room, staring into the flickering images on a bulky laptop? |
| Arthur Brooks: Yes, that will be me — watching the debate in the dark, unshaven, chain-smoking, in a dirty undershirt. | Arthur Brooks: Yes, that will be me — watching the debate in the dark, unshaven, chain-smoking, in a dirty undershirt. |
| Maybe not all that, but I am definitely approaching the debate with great trepidation, like I’m off to watch open-heart surgery. I’ll probably be clutching a rosary. | Maybe not all that, but I am definitely approaching the debate with great trepidation, like I’m off to watch open-heart surgery. I’ll probably be clutching a rosary. |
| Everyone says the first debate is the biggest deal in this whole campaign. Just hype, right? | Everyone says the first debate is the biggest deal in this whole campaign. Just hype, right? |
| Gail: I don’t know if doing well wins you an election but screwing up can be the end of a campaign. I don’t think Al Gore ever recovered in 2000. And he wasn’t actually bad! It was just that the expectations for George W. were so low. Bush won by speaking in relatively complete sentences. | Gail: I don’t know if doing well wins you an election but screwing up can be the end of a campaign. I don’t think Al Gore ever recovered in 2000. And he wasn’t actually bad! It was just that the expectations for George W. were so low. Bush won by speaking in relatively complete sentences. |
| You can see where I’m going. | You can see where I’m going. |
| Arthur: I get your drift. Just for the fun of it, let’s explore your nightmare scenario. | Arthur: I get your drift. Just for the fun of it, let’s explore your nightmare scenario. |
| Hillary Clinton starts with a question about her emails and answers with a performance-art piece of derisive chuckling and eye-rolling. Then she digs into some policy questions by quoting passionately from the footnotes of a Congressional Budget Office report. Finally, she jerks the audience awake with a fit of violent coughing, followed by reassurances by Clinton’s staff that all is well — great, actually! — while she is wheeled out on a gurney. | Hillary Clinton starts with a question about her emails and answers with a performance-art piece of derisive chuckling and eye-rolling. Then she digs into some policy questions by quoting passionately from the footnotes of a Congressional Budget Office report. Finally, she jerks the audience awake with a fit of violent coughing, followed by reassurances by Clinton’s staff that all is well — great, actually! — while she is wheeled out on a gurney. |
| Gail: Or Donald Trump talks about the Pentagon in a way that suggests he thinks it’s in Wilmington. Then he says he was always against the Iraq invasion. Hillary instantly quotes his statement to the contrary in 2002. Trump says, “You’re a liar” in that really nasty tone he gets, then makes a joke about post-menopausal women, brags about his wife’s cleavage and is led off the floor by Roger Ailes. | Gail: Or Donald Trump talks about the Pentagon in a way that suggests he thinks it’s in Wilmington. Then he says he was always against the Iraq invasion. Hillary instantly quotes his statement to the contrary in 2002. Trump says, “You’re a liar” in that really nasty tone he gets, then makes a joke about post-menopausal women, brags about his wife’s cleavage and is led off the floor by Roger Ailes. |
| Arthur: All of which is judged by the Pundit Industrial Complex to have exceeded expectations about Trump’s performance because — well, just because. They score it Trump 1, Clinton 0, and that becomes the conventional wisdom. Am I capturing your fears? | Arthur: All of which is judged by the Pundit Industrial Complex to have exceeded expectations about Trump’s performance because — well, just because. They score it Trump 1, Clinton 0, and that becomes the conventional wisdom. Am I capturing your fears? |
| Gail: I do worry that if he manages to be not totally irrational or insulting, he’ll clear the bar. Which is currently slightly lower than an anthill. | Gail: I do worry that if he manages to be not totally irrational or insulting, he’ll clear the bar. Which is currently slightly lower than an anthill. |
| It’s going to be a big night. Although it does get kind of weird when Trump compares it to Lincoln-Douglas. | It’s going to be a big night. Although it does get kind of weird when Trump compares it to Lincoln-Douglas. |
| Arthur: Not weird at all. It’s a little-known fact that in their first debate, Lincoln observed that Douglas had very small hands. Later that day, in a rage, Douglas printed a pamphlet that said, “Crooked, low energy Abe viciously attacks me. Sad!” | Arthur: Not weird at all. It’s a little-known fact that in their first debate, Lincoln observed that Douglas had very small hands. Later that day, in a rage, Douglas printed a pamphlet that said, “Crooked, low energy Abe viciously attacks me. Sad!” |
| Gail: You do such good Trump. | Gail: You do such good Trump. |
| Arthur: Now you’re just trying to hurt my feelings. | Arthur: Now you’re just trying to hurt my feelings. |
| O.K. with you if we dig into a little research? A few scholars have looked at the subject of presidential debates, and I found the results kind of interesting. | O.K. with you if we dig into a little research? A few scholars have looked at the subject of presidential debates, and I found the results kind of interesting. |
| Gail: Always like to hear from the scholars. | Gail: Always like to hear from the scholars. |
| Arthur: One professor at George Washington University looked at debates going back several decades and concluded that despite the buildup, general-election debates have very little to no effect on the outcome of the election. At most, the evidence suggests that the debates can give a small nudge in elections that were already very close. | Arthur: One professor at George Washington University looked at debates going back several decades and concluded that despite the buildup, general-election debates have very little to no effect on the outcome of the election. At most, the evidence suggests that the debates can give a small nudge in elections that were already very close. |
| Gail: Wait a minute. Who are you going to trust, me or a professor? But go on. | Gail: Wait a minute. Who are you going to trust, me or a professor? But go on. |
| Arthur: In contrast to general-election debates, primary debates really matter a lot. According to a University of Missouri study looking at elections from 2000 to 2012, 35 percent of primary debate viewers changed their preference from one candidate to another because of the debate. Meanwhile, 3.5 percent did so because of a general-election debate. People’s minds are pretty made up by the time the general election rolls around. | Arthur: In contrast to general-election debates, primary debates really matter a lot. According to a University of Missouri study looking at elections from 2000 to 2012, 35 percent of primary debate viewers changed their preference from one candidate to another because of the debate. Meanwhile, 3.5 percent did so because of a general-election debate. People’s minds are pretty made up by the time the general election rolls around. |
| And you know, that really rings true to me. General-election debates are like the Super Bowl: Everyone tunes in with a set preference. You never say, “I liked the Seahawks going in, but after they lost to the Patriots, I decided to start rooting for New England.” | |
| Gail: People always like to think of themselves as open-minded. They’ll say, “I was undecided until Trump made that remark about taxes in the debate.” It’s the equivalent of “I don’t have a favorite team, I just like watching good football.” Or, “I just decided to root for the Patriots because I like that spunky third-string quarterback.” Sorry, I digress. | Gail: People always like to think of themselves as open-minded. They’ll say, “I was undecided until Trump made that remark about taxes in the debate.” It’s the equivalent of “I don’t have a favorite team, I just like watching good football.” Or, “I just decided to root for the Patriots because I like that spunky third-string quarterback.” Sorry, I digress. |
| Arthur: I can stay on the N.F.L. all day, you know. | Arthur: I can stay on the N.F.L. all day, you know. |
| But now let me take you back to your fears about the media’s narrative for a minute. There was a famous paper a few years ago in The Journal of Politics in which the authors asked what effect the media experts who appear after a debate have on viewers’ opinions. After the 2004 debate in Tempe, Ariz., between Bush and John Kerry, they asked randomly sorted viewers who had seen no post-debate analysis who won. Forty-eight percent said Kerry. Then they asked another group who had seen the debate and NBC’s analysis who won. Kerry got 17 percent. | |
| Gail: But what happened to that group afterward? I am thinking they went back to wherever they were before. After all, Kerry got 48 percent in the actual election. | Gail: But what happened to that group afterward? I am thinking they went back to wherever they were before. After all, Kerry got 48 percent in the actual election. |
| Arthur: I think this is telling us that the media can affect the perception of who won the debate, but that it won’t change many votes. At most they generate that nudge effect I mentioned earlier. | Arthur: I think this is telling us that the media can affect the perception of who won the debate, but that it won’t change many votes. At most they generate that nudge effect I mentioned earlier. |
| Gail: I don’t want to argue that the media coverage is irrelevant — I mean, look where we’re conversing, Arthur. But if the press were all-powerful, we would not be watching Republican nominee Donald Trump at this point. I’ve never been in an election where reporters, while still adhering to the principle of impartiality, wrote so many stories basically saying, “Wow, this guy is a liar.” | Gail: I don’t want to argue that the media coverage is irrelevant — I mean, look where we’re conversing, Arthur. But if the press were all-powerful, we would not be watching Republican nominee Donald Trump at this point. I’ve never been in an election where reporters, while still adhering to the principle of impartiality, wrote so many stories basically saying, “Wow, this guy is a liar.” |
| Arthur: I don’t know. I’ve read plenty of stories that do criticize him like you say, but I also have seen a lot of TV that has covered the Trump campaign more like a reality show than a presidential campaign. We could just as easily say that Trump succeeded because of the mass media rather than in spite of it. | Arthur: I don’t know. I’ve read plenty of stories that do criticize him like you say, but I also have seen a lot of TV that has covered the Trump campaign more like a reality show than a presidential campaign. We could just as easily say that Trump succeeded because of the mass media rather than in spite of it. |
| One more media study. This 2012 paper shows that HDTV is bad for the older candidate. For example, in 2008, those who watched the debate in high definition were more likely than others to bring up McCain’s age in a negative light. Isn’t that just swell? | One more media study. This 2012 paper shows that HDTV is bad for the older candidate. For example, in 2008, those who watched the debate in high definition were more likely than others to bring up McCain’s age in a negative light. Isn’t that just swell? |
| Gail: Yeah, you don’t need a political consultant to tell people who work on TV that the new technology is bad for people with wrinkles. Age might have been a very big issue this year, were it not for the fact that both of our candidates are in the same calendric boat. | Gail: Yeah, you don’t need a political consultant to tell people who work on TV that the new technology is bad for people with wrinkles. Age might have been a very big issue this year, were it not for the fact that both of our candidates are in the same calendric boat. |
| So if you were Trump’s coach, what would you tell him to do on Monday night? | So if you were Trump’s coach, what would you tell him to do on Monday night? |
| Arthur: He should work on the people who don’t already agree with him. Say, “I care about you and your family, and I’m going to fight for you whether you vote for me or not.” Talk openly and invitingly to the people who are most hostile. | Arthur: He should work on the people who don’t already agree with him. Say, “I care about you and your family, and I’m going to fight for you whether you vote for me or not.” Talk openly and invitingly to the people who are most hostile. |
| First, this will discombobulate the narrative that what he really cares about is firing up a scary part of his base. Second, while the people against him are unlikely to come around in significant numbers, there are lots of persuadables lurking in the shadows, observing how he conducts himself. Make them say, “Everyone said he was so nasty, but he sounded pretty nice and reasonable to me.” | First, this will discombobulate the narrative that what he really cares about is firing up a scary part of his base. Second, while the people against him are unlikely to come around in significant numbers, there are lots of persuadables lurking in the shadows, observing how he conducts himself. Make them say, “Everyone said he was so nasty, but he sounded pretty nice and reasonable to me.” |
| Before we go to Clinton, try to suppress your gag reflex and tell me your best advice for Trump. | Before we go to Clinton, try to suppress your gag reflex and tell me your best advice for Trump. |
| Gail: Say “That’s a good question” a lot. Then if you still can’t come up with an answer, talk about something completely different. | Gail: Say “That’s a good question” a lot. Then if you still can’t come up with an answer, talk about something completely different. |
| Best I can do. Now what about Hillary? | Best I can do. Now what about Hillary? |
| Arthur: Her Achilles’ heel is contempt, which is perhaps the most self-defeating stereotype possible. That’s the reason the whole “basket of deplorables” comment offended people instead of just sounding like a weird turn of phrase — she played to her own stereotype by showing disgust for 30 million Americans. Her job Monday night is to break the stereotype by listening thoughtfully, curbing all derisive gestures, and treating the moderator and her opponent as if they were friends instead of something she accidentally tracked in off the street. | Arthur: Her Achilles’ heel is contempt, which is perhaps the most self-defeating stereotype possible. That’s the reason the whole “basket of deplorables” comment offended people instead of just sounding like a weird turn of phrase — she played to her own stereotype by showing disgust for 30 million Americans. Her job Monday night is to break the stereotype by listening thoughtfully, curbing all derisive gestures, and treating the moderator and her opponent as if they were friends instead of something she accidentally tracked in off the street. |
| Your advice? | Your advice? |
| Gail: I vote for smiling, even though we really do demand a lot more of that from women than from men. Treating Trump like a friend is O.K., I guess, although it has to be the kind of friend to whom you can say, “Donald, that is just totally inaccurate.” | Gail: I vote for smiling, even though we really do demand a lot more of that from women than from men. Treating Trump like a friend is O.K., I guess, although it has to be the kind of friend to whom you can say, “Donald, that is just totally inaccurate.” |
| Arthur: No problem — we’re friends and you tell me that every week. | Arthur: No problem — we’re friends and you tell me that every week. |
| Gail: Have a good debate-watching, Arthur. Listen hard and drink heavily. | Gail: Have a good debate-watching, Arthur. Listen hard and drink heavily. |
| Arthur: You too! No doubt we will get a lot of material to nudge the nation in next week’s conversation. | Arthur: You too! No doubt we will get a lot of material to nudge the nation in next week’s conversation. |