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How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate? How are Clinton and Trump polling before the first debate?
(35 minutes later)
Back in January, I wrote that “in the first 26 days of this year, 186 political polls were released”. Since then, I’ve lost count. In January, I wrote that “in the first 26 days of this year, 186 political polls were released”. Since then, I’ve lost count.
New numbers are released every day by different organizations (some academic, some corporate and some media businesses themselves), and they all depict a slightly different political reality.New numbers are released every day by different organizations (some academic, some corporate and some media businesses themselves), and they all depict a slightly different political reality.
To state the obvious, in 2016 political reality is very different from that of previous presidential elections. And not just because the two remaining candidates are the least popular for more than 30 years. It’s also because polls, which have come to be the manna of political analysts, now offer less help in making sense of it all.To state the obvious, in 2016 political reality is very different from that of previous presidential elections. And not just because the two remaining candidates are the least popular for more than 30 years. It’s also because polls, which have come to be the manna of political analysts, now offer less help in making sense of it all.
In past elections, the polls had settled down by Labor Day. This year, they continue to point all over the place. On Sunday, a survey by the Economist and YouGov found that Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4%. Less than 24 hours later, a poll from the LA Times and USC Tracking put Donald Trump 4% ahead.In past elections, the polls had settled down by Labor Day. This year, they continue to point all over the place. On Sunday, a survey by the Economist and YouGov found that Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4%. Less than 24 hours later, a poll from the LA Times and USC Tracking put Donald Trump 4% ahead.
Both pollsters are considered credible, which makes this even more confusing.Both pollsters are considered credible, which makes this even more confusing.
This series is intended to help you make sense of the ceaseless onslaught of numbers by taking a closer look at just one poll. But to start us off, I want to talk about a crucial tool in polling analysis: the average.This series is intended to help you make sense of the ceaseless onslaught of numbers by taking a closer look at just one poll. But to start us off, I want to talk about a crucial tool in polling analysis: the average.
The site Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average of all recent credible polls to create a moving average. Right now, RCP has Clinton with 45.9% of the vote while Trump has 43.8%, meaning that the Democratic nominee is ahead by 2.1%.The site Real Clear Politics (RCP) takes the average of all recent credible polls to create a moving average. Right now, RCP has Clinton with 45.9% of the vote while Trump has 43.8%, meaning that the Democratic nominee is ahead by 2.1%.
Notice how Democrats aren’t singing from the rooftops or gloating on Twitter? It’s because 2.1% means nothing.Notice how Democrats aren’t singing from the rooftops or gloating on Twitter? It’s because 2.1% means nothing.
It’s so small, it could be down to errors in the ways that polls are conducted. It’s so narrow, it could easily be reversed by individuals who change their mind or who are not honestly disclosing how they plan to vote.It’s so small, it could be down to errors in the ways that polls are conducted. It’s so narrow, it could easily be reversed by individuals who change their mind or who are not honestly disclosing how they plan to vote.
The takeaway? Going into tonight’s debate, the two candidates are neck and neck.The takeaway? Going into tonight’s debate, the two candidates are neck and neck.
But how much do debates matter? As my former colleague Lauren Leatherby has pointed out, they have hurt candidates in the polls (see Barack Obama in 2012 and George Bush in 2004). But ultimately those candidates have been able to recover by election day (see, uh, the same candidates).But how much do debates matter? As my former colleague Lauren Leatherby has pointed out, they have hurt candidates in the polls (see Barack Obama in 2012 and George Bush in 2004). But ultimately those candidates have been able to recover by election day (see, uh, the same candidates).
So even if tonight produces a clear loser, the November vote is not a done deal.So even if tonight produces a clear loser, the November vote is not a done deal.