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Blue Jacket and No Kiss? What Bettors Expect in the Clinton-Trump Debate Red Tie and No Kiss? What Bettors Expect in the Clinton-Trump Debate
(about 3 hours later)
Where there’s a spectacle, there are bettors, and Monday night’s first presidential debate is inspiring all manner of wagers.Where there’s a spectacle, there are bettors, and Monday night’s first presidential debate is inspiring all manner of wagers.
Offshore internet bookmakers reckon it’s nearly a sure thing that more people will tune in to the debate than to “Monday Night Football.” They’re offering an array of prop bets typically associated with sporting events — the exotic side bets that they use to keep games entertaining, even to those who aren’t die-hard fans.Offshore internet bookmakers reckon it’s nearly a sure thing that more people will tune in to the debate than to “Monday Night Football.” They’re offering an array of prop bets typically associated with sporting events — the exotic side bets that they use to keep games entertaining, even to those who aren’t die-hard fans.
They don’t seem to expect much substance on issues, judging from the under-over bets on how many times various issues or words will be mentioned. The top three terms are “email” (you can bet on whether there will be over 7.5 mentions, or under 7.5 mentions), “deport” (the line is 6.5 mentions) and “liar” (5.5 mentions). Expect less discussions of “racism” (an over-under of 2.5 mentions), Wall Street (3.5 mentions) or each candidate’s “foundation” (4.5 mentions). If you’re wondering how there can be half a mention, there obviously can’t; this is how Las Vegas breaks a tie.They don’t seem to expect much substance on issues, judging from the under-over bets on how many times various issues or words will be mentioned. The top three terms are “email” (you can bet on whether there will be over 7.5 mentions, or under 7.5 mentions), “deport” (the line is 6.5 mentions) and “liar” (5.5 mentions). Expect less discussions of “racism” (an over-under of 2.5 mentions), Wall Street (3.5 mentions) or each candidate’s “foundation” (4.5 mentions). If you’re wondering how there can be half a mention, there obviously can’t; this is how Las Vegas breaks a tie.
As with prediction markets, bookmakers’ odds are adjusted to reflect the views of the bettors. I’m reporting on these odds because I would rather rely on a market-tested assessment that reflected the insight of many bettors than any individual’s guess.As with prediction markets, bookmakers’ odds are adjusted to reflect the views of the bettors. I’m reporting on these odds because I would rather rely on a market-tested assessment that reflected the insight of many bettors than any individual’s guess.
The odds also say that Donald J. Trump is expected to wear a red tie, with Hillary Clinton countering with a blue jacket. The debate is most likely to begin with a firm handshake, with no physical embrace. But if you think an embrace is likely, a kiss on the cheek is less likely than no kiss at all.The odds also say that Donald J. Trump is expected to wear a red tie, with Hillary Clinton countering with a blue jacket. The debate is most likely to begin with a firm handshake, with no physical embrace. But if you think an embrace is likely, a kiss on the cheek is less likely than no kiss at all.
Mr. Trump is rated more likely to mention Mrs. Clinton’s spouse than Mrs. Clinton is to mention Mr. Trump’s.Mr. Trump is rated more likely to mention Mrs. Clinton’s spouse than Mrs. Clinton is to mention Mr. Trump’s.
Mrs. Clinton is expected to be somewhat aggressive in describing Mr. Trump, with a slightly better than 60 percent chance to say the word “bigot” or “bigotry.” But the bookies think it’s much less likely that she’ll go so far as to use the word “deplorable.”Mrs. Clinton is expected to be somewhat aggressive in describing Mr. Trump, with a slightly better than 60 percent chance to say the word “bigot” or “bigotry.” But the bookies think it’s much less likely that she’ll go so far as to use the word “deplorable.”
Traders at the political prediction market PredictIt aren’t sure how aggressive Mr. Trump will be, and they think it is 40 percent likely that he will describe Mrs. Clinton as “Crooked Hillary” at some point during the debate.Traders at the political prediction market PredictIt aren’t sure how aggressive Mr. Trump will be, and they think it is 40 percent likely that he will describe Mrs. Clinton as “Crooked Hillary” at some point during the debate.
Mr. Trump is likely to return to his favorite themes, and is rated nearly an 80 percent chance to say either “build the wall” or “build a wall.”Mr. Trump is likely to return to his favorite themes, and is rated nearly an 80 percent chance to say either “build the wall” or “build a wall.”
There’s one more reason to tune in to tonight’s debate: We don’t know how many there will be. Prediction markets currently suggest there’s an 18 percent chance that Mr. Trump will refuse to participate in at least one of the future debates.There’s one more reason to tune in to tonight’s debate: We don’t know how many there will be. Prediction markets currently suggest there’s an 18 percent chance that Mr. Trump will refuse to participate in at least one of the future debates.