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The What-Ifs: 11 Debate Possibilities That Should Worry the Campaigns The What-Ifs: 11 Debate Possibilities That Should Worry the Campaigns
(35 minutes later)
Hillary Clinton will be there. Donald J. Trump, too. Pleasantries will probably be exchanged. And after that, the road map for the first presidential debate is anyone’s guess. Here are some of the most consequential “what-ifs” ahead of Monday night’s showdown — the possibilities that make the campaigns sweat, or should: Hillary Clinton will be there. Donald J. Trump, too. Pleasantries will probably be exchanged. And after that, the road map for the first presidential debate is anyone’s guess. What are some of the most consequential “what-ifs” ahead of Monday night’s showdown — the possibilities that make the campaigns sweat? Or should:
He is off to a head start: Mr. Trump already threatened to invite Gennifer Flowers, who claimed to have had a 12-year affair with Bill Clinton, as his debate guest. (Mr. Trump’s campaign later said that Ms. Flowers would not be there.)He is off to a head start: Mr. Trump already threatened to invite Gennifer Flowers, who claimed to have had a 12-year affair with Bill Clinton, as his debate guest. (Mr. Trump’s campaign later said that Ms. Flowers would not be there.)
Still, a decision to confront Mrs. Clinton from the stage about her husband’s misdeeds would raise the stakes considerably. Mr. Trump plainly sees a benefit in reminding voters of past Clinton scandals they may have forgotten. But the risks are substantial: The move could make Mrs. Clinton appear more sympathetic and repel female voters already uneasy with Mr. Trump.Still, a decision to confront Mrs. Clinton from the stage about her husband’s misdeeds would raise the stakes considerably. Mr. Trump plainly sees a benefit in reminding voters of past Clinton scandals they may have forgotten. But the risks are substantial: The move could make Mrs. Clinton appear more sympathetic and repel female voters already uneasy with Mr. Trump.
Then there is Mr. Trump’s marital history to consider.Then there is Mr. Trump’s marital history to consider.
No one likes a know-it-all. But voters, presumably, want their president to know at least a few things. Among some Republicans who hoped to stop Mr. Trump in the primaries — and who remain convinced that he could not survive a middle-school civics class — a great regret persists: No one ever tried to insult his intelligence by stumping him with an easy question.No one likes a know-it-all. But voters, presumably, want their president to know at least a few things. Among some Republicans who hoped to stop Mr. Trump in the primaries — and who remain convinced that he could not survive a middle-school civics class — a great regret persists: No one ever tried to insult his intelligence by stumping him with an easy question.
What is the Common Core, which he claims to despise? Who is the prime minister of Canada? How does a bill become a law?What is the Common Core, which he claims to despise? Who is the prime minister of Canada? How does a bill become a law?
Does Mr. Trump know the answers? It may not matter to some of his supporters, but an “oops” moment (looking at you, Rick Perry) could be the stuff of millions of cable news and YouTube replays.Does Mr. Trump know the answers? It may not matter to some of his supporters, but an “oops” moment (looking at you, Rick Perry) could be the stuff of millions of cable news and YouTube replays.
It can seem as though Mr. Trump loves no sound more than the swaggering Queens timbre of his own voice. But for a candidate not known for his policy depth, a one-on-one format poses a unique challenge.It can seem as though Mr. Trump loves no sound more than the swaggering Queens timbre of his own voice. But for a candidate not known for his policy depth, a one-on-one format poses a unique challenge.
In the Republican primary debates, he often disappeared for extended stretches, letting his many rivals skirmish over assorted campaign proposals, before lumbering in with a memorably evocative quip about, say, the size of his genitals.In the Republican primary debates, he often disappeared for extended stretches, letting his many rivals skirmish over assorted campaign proposals, before lumbering in with a memorably evocative quip about, say, the size of his genitals.
This time, it is 90 commercial-free minutes with Mrs. Clinton. That is a lot of airtime.This time, it is 90 commercial-free minutes with Mrs. Clinton. That is a lot of airtime.
Perhaps the greatest fear in the Clinton camp centers on the choices of Lester Holt, the debate moderator. Specifically, will Mr. Holt see fit to interject when the candidates shade the truth?Perhaps the greatest fear in the Clinton camp centers on the choices of Lester Holt, the debate moderator. Specifically, will Mr. Holt see fit to interject when the candidates shade the truth?
Though Mrs. Clinton’s reputation for candor is checkered, her team hopes the debate might lay bare Mr. Trump’s prolific assemblage of falsehoods. Some signature untruths, like Mr. Trump’s insistence that he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, have often been allowed to go unchallenged, including at a recent NBC candidate forum.Though Mrs. Clinton’s reputation for candor is checkered, her team hopes the debate might lay bare Mr. Trump’s prolific assemblage of falsehoods. Some signature untruths, like Mr. Trump’s insistence that he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, have often been allowed to go unchallenged, including at a recent NBC candidate forum.
Mrs. Clinton’s team has urged Mr. Holt to set a different tone.Mrs. Clinton’s team has urged Mr. Holt to set a different tone.
Mr. Trump fashions himself a master negotiator. Perhaps Mrs. Clinton will make him an offer he would have trouble refusing on live television. As the Clinton camp continues to press Mr. Trump to release his tax returns, she might be tempted to make a deal, or at least float one.Mr. Trump fashions himself a master negotiator. Perhaps Mrs. Clinton will make him an offer he would have trouble refusing on live television. As the Clinton camp continues to press Mr. Trump to release his tax returns, she might be tempted to make a deal, or at least float one.
She could offer to do his taxes for him next year. Or she could volunteer a charitable contribution, as Mr. Trump did while promoting the false “birther” movement questioning President Obama’s birthplace. Speaking of which…She could offer to do his taxes for him next year. Or she could volunteer a charitable contribution, as Mr. Trump did while promoting the false “birther” movement questioning President Obama’s birthplace. Speaking of which…
After five years as principal spokesman for the idea that Mr. Obama was not born in the United States, Mr. Trump acknowledged this month that the president was born here. Also, Mr. Trump said, he would rather not talk about it anymore.After five years as principal spokesman for the idea that Mr. Obama was not born in the United States, Mr. Trump acknowledged this month that the president was born here. Also, Mr. Trump said, he would rather not talk about it anymore.
But Mrs. Clinton would. So far, Mr. Trump has strained to identify a coherent reason for his change of heart. One of the most significant debate moments may arrive when Mr. Trump is compelled to provide one, before the watchful eyes of the many Obama supporters still wary of Mrs. Clinton.But Mrs. Clinton would. So far, Mr. Trump has strained to identify a coherent reason for his change of heart. One of the most significant debate moments may arrive when Mr. Trump is compelled to provide one, before the watchful eyes of the many Obama supporters still wary of Mrs. Clinton.
The sightings are rare, like an endangered animal wandering through Manhattan. But those close to Mrs. Clinton have long contended that she can be quite funny.The sightings are rare, like an endangered animal wandering through Manhattan. But those close to Mrs. Clinton have long contended that she can be quite funny.
In an election often defined by showmanship and confrontation, a well-placed zinger might prove powerful, particularly from such an unexpected source.In an election often defined by showmanship and confrontation, a well-placed zinger might prove powerful, particularly from such an unexpected source.
Even after dozens of debates in two presidential campaigns, the most memorable moment for Mrs. Clinton still may be when Representative Rick A. Lazio walked, with a finger pointed, into her personal space during the 2000 Senate race to demand she sign a pledge forsaking outside money.Even after dozens of debates in two presidential campaigns, the most memorable moment for Mrs. Clinton still may be when Representative Rick A. Lazio walked, with a finger pointed, into her personal space during the 2000 Senate race to demand she sign a pledge forsaking outside money.
Female voters recoiled at his behavior, and Mrs. Clinton’s supporters are quietly hopeful that Mr. Trump may seek to prove his alpha status with a similar intimidation tactic. Can Mr. Trump — a man who recently insisted on divulging his testosterone levels, despite releasing scant medical records — resist the urge?Female voters recoiled at his behavior, and Mrs. Clinton’s supporters are quietly hopeful that Mr. Trump may seek to prove his alpha status with a similar intimidation tactic. Can Mr. Trump — a man who recently insisted on divulging his testosterone levels, despite releasing scant medical records — resist the urge?
Mr. Trump, well practiced at innuendo and ominous warnings, has often compelled reporters to ask questions they never thought would be necessary. Questions like: Did he just encourage violence against his opponent? (And, if not, what did he imply about the “Second Amendment people” who might take matters into their own hands if Mrs. Clinton is elected?)Mr. Trump, well practiced at innuendo and ominous warnings, has often compelled reporters to ask questions they never thought would be necessary. Questions like: Did he just encourage violence against his opponent? (And, if not, what did he imply about the “Second Amendment people” who might take matters into their own hands if Mrs. Clinton is elected?)
It is not clear if Mr. Trump views this tic as a shortcoming or as a strength of his oratory. But if Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Holt can challenge him in real time over such a flourish, Mr. Trump might be placed on the defensive, without a spokesman on hand to walk back his comments immediately after the fact.It is not clear if Mr. Trump views this tic as a shortcoming or as a strength of his oratory. But if Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Holt can challenge him in real time over such a flourish, Mr. Trump might be placed on the defensive, without a spokesman on hand to walk back his comments immediately after the fact.
It might not prove anything. It might not be fair. But after decades of health-based conspiracy theories and Mrs. Clinton’s recent bout with pneumonia, supporters worry that a simple coughing fit — hardly implausible during a lengthy, uninterrupted gabfest — could feed perceptions about her fitness to serve. It would be especially damaging given how many voters have seen the video of her wilting this month while leaving a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony.It might not prove anything. It might not be fair. But after decades of health-based conspiracy theories and Mrs. Clinton’s recent bout with pneumonia, supporters worry that a simple coughing fit — hardly implausible during a lengthy, uninterrupted gabfest — could feed perceptions about her fitness to serve. It would be especially damaging given how many voters have seen the video of her wilting this month while leaving a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony.
Well before that, Mrs. Clinton had occasionally gone hoarse on the campaign trail, or slogged through a flurry of hacks at the microphone. Monday would be a poor time for a relapse.Well before that, Mrs. Clinton had occasionally gone hoarse on the campaign trail, or slogged through a flurry of hacks at the microphone. Monday would be a poor time for a relapse.
Mr. Trump has admired his leadership. He has cited his poll numbers in Russia. Mr. Trump has even played down the killing of dissident journalists, on the grounds that “our country does plenty of killing, too.”Mr. Trump has admired his leadership. He has cited his poll numbers in Russia. Mr. Trump has even played down the killing of dissident journalists, on the grounds that “our country does plenty of killing, too.”
The Republican nominee has had many nice things to say about President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. And there is little that Mrs. Clinton would like more than to make Mr. Trump repeat them.The Republican nominee has had many nice things to say about President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. And there is little that Mrs. Clinton would like more than to make Mr. Trump repeat them.