The Guardian view on France: a weak left and the rise of populism
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Version 0 of 1. François Hollande visited Calais on Monday, his first visit since he came to office in 2012. He promised that the sprawling, inadequate refugee camp would close “by the end of the year”. Last week, President Hollande’s predecessor in the Elysée palace, Nicolas Sarkozy, also went to Calais, making the kind of radical statements he believes will earn him the sympathy of far-right voters in the run-up to rightwing presidential primaries due in November. French politics is swerving towards populism; identity politics is overtaking most public discourse. And humanitarian concerns for the fate of the migrants in Calais risk being swamped by electoral politics. On his visit, Mr Sarkozy said France risked being “overrun” by migrants, the kind of rhetoric that sits squarely with the views of Marine Le Pen’s Front National, Europe’s largest far-right party, whose ideology is increasingly becoming the reference point in France’s political battles. Mr Sarkozy has also suggested that anyone holding a French passport should accept that their ancestors were “the Gauls”. France is still reeling from the impact of terrorism. Old tensions between ethnic or religious communities have been exacerbated by a wave of paranoia about minorities and migrants, and it is being cynically amplified by politicians. The left is not entirely innocent. President Hollande, who has yet to announce whether he will seek re-election, recently tried to cast himself as the republic’s bulwark against xenophobia by trying, and failing, to rewrite the constitution to introduce measures to strip dual nationals of their citizenship. One far-left presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has suggested refugees would do better to stay in their own countries. In this dive to the bottom, Ms Le Pen is the winner: polls indicate she is a racing certainty for the second round of the 2017 elections, while so severely is the left divided, its chances of reaching the second round currently appear close to zero. Like the rest of European social democracy, France’s centre-left sees its base fast eroding. Centrist votes are now being courted by an outsider, Emmanuel Macron, the 38-year-old ex-banker who resigned last month as economics minister to launch the En Marche! (Forward!) political movement. He certainly fascinates the media, but his programme, like his intentions, remains vague. So the main battle is being waged on an increasingly populist right. The exception is Alain Juppé, prime minister in the 1990s, whose moderation could be the antidote to Mr Sarkozy’s polarising postures. Mr Juppé believes a steady, principled and inclusive message is the best way to counter the Front National. Elsewhere in Europe, when mainstream politicians have pandered to anti-migrant sentiment, it’s often the populist parties that have gained. That Mr Juppé, a 72-year-old Gaullist, looks the best bet against Ms Le Pen says a lot about the weakness of the French left. The stakes have never been higher: and all Europe is watching to see if France’s slide into populism can be averted. |