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| How rising violence in just 10 cities drove up the US murder rate | How rising violence in just 10 cities drove up the US murder rate |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| A third of last year’s 10.8% murder increase in the US, the biggest single-year leap in decades, was driven by rising violence in just 10 cities, according to FBI data released this week. | A third of last year’s 10.8% murder increase in the US, the biggest single-year leap in decades, was driven by rising violence in just 10 cities, according to FBI data released this week. |
| Together, these 10 cities suffered an additional 524 murders last year, part of an estimated increase of 1,500 additional murders nationwide. | Together, these 10 cities suffered an additional 524 murders last year, part of an estimated increase of 1,500 additional murders nationwide. |
| The 10 cities did not all have the largest percentage increases in murder. Other large cities, including Aurora, Colorado, and Anchorage, Alaska, saw more dramatic percentage jumps, but only small changes in actual murder numbers. | The 10 cities did not all have the largest percentage increases in murder. Other large cities, including Aurora, Colorado, and Anchorage, Alaska, saw more dramatic percentage jumps, but only small changes in actual murder numbers. |
| In some of the 10 cities that saw the largest number of additional murders, law enforcement officials have attributed blame to a “viral video effect” or the “Ferguson effect”, the supposed consequence of decreased police morale and assertiveness in the wake of widespread protests over police killings of black Americans. | In some of the 10 cities that saw the largest number of additional murders, law enforcement officials have attributed blame to a “viral video effect” or the “Ferguson effect”, the supposed consequence of decreased police morale and assertiveness in the wake of widespread protests over police killings of black Americans. |
| An alternative theory suggests the increase could be linked to a crisis in police legitimacy, murders rising as citizens’ trust in and willingness to cooperate with law enforcement drops. | |
| Almost all of the 10 cities that saw steep increases in violence in 2015 have continued to see high levels of violence this year. Chicago has seen an even more dramatic increase. In 2015 it saw a 16% rise in murders. This year, it has seen an additional increase of 44%. | Almost all of the 10 cities that saw steep increases in violence in 2015 have continued to see high levels of violence this year. Chicago has seen an even more dramatic increase. In 2015 it saw a 16% rise in murders. This year, it has seen an additional increase of 44%. |
| Almost all of the 10 cities that saw big increases in murders last year have not dropped back down to lower levels of violence this year. Year-to-date homicides or murders are up 15% in Houston and 13% in Kansas City, according to local police department data. Philadelphia and Nashville have seen increases of 5% and 6%. | Almost all of the 10 cities that saw big increases in murders last year have not dropped back down to lower levels of violence this year. Year-to-date homicides or murders are up 15% in Houston and 13% in Kansas City, according to local police department data. Philadelphia and Nashville have seen increases of 5% and 6%. |
| Baltimore, Washington DC, Milwaukee and St Louis have seen slightly fewer homicides or murders in 2016, but not enough to put them back on track towards lower murder numbers. | Baltimore, Washington DC, Milwaukee and St Louis have seen slightly fewer homicides or murders in 2016, but not enough to put them back on track towards lower murder numbers. |
| Nor are murder numbers the only measure of increasing violence. Baltimore and Washington are both on track to see about the same number of non-fatal shootings or assaults with a deadly weapon as in 2015, even though killings are slightly down. | Nor are murder numbers the only measure of increasing violence. Baltimore and Washington are both on track to see about the same number of non-fatal shootings or assaults with a deadly weapon as in 2015, even though killings are slightly down. |
| Chicago is an outlier, with at least 160 additional murders and 800 additional shooting incidents in 2016 compared with the same time the previous year. | Chicago is an outlier, with at least 160 additional murders and 800 additional shooting incidents in 2016 compared with the same time the previous year. |
| The 10 cities that helped drive 2015’s murder increase have some demographic similarities. A justice department-funded study of 2015 homicide trends in big cities found that the 10 cities with the largest murder increases all had larger African American populations and smaller Hispanic populations than other cities. Those cities also had slightly higher average poverty rates: 24.6% versus 20.8%. (Rather than Oklahoma City, the 10 cities analyzed in that study included Cleveland, which has a much higher proportion of black residents.) | The 10 cities that helped drive 2015’s murder increase have some demographic similarities. A justice department-funded study of 2015 homicide trends in big cities found that the 10 cities with the largest murder increases all had larger African American populations and smaller Hispanic populations than other cities. Those cities also had slightly higher average poverty rates: 24.6% versus 20.8%. (Rather than Oklahoma City, the 10 cities analyzed in that study included Cleveland, which has a much higher proportion of black residents.) |
| ‘Longstanding grievances and discontent with policing’ | ‘Longstanding grievances and discontent with policing’ |
| Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist and the study’s author, concluded that there might be some connection between protests over police violence and increases in murders in cities with large African American populations. Rather than suggesting, as some conservative proponents of a “Ferguson effect” have done, that such might undermine public safety, Rosenfeld focused on the “longstanding grievances and discontent with policing in African American communities”. | Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist and the study’s author, concluded that there might be some connection between protests over police violence and increases in murders in cities with large African American populations. Rather than suggesting, as some conservative proponents of a “Ferguson effect” have done, that such might undermine public safety, Rosenfeld focused on the “longstanding grievances and discontent with policing in African American communities”. |
| “In this interpretation, when activated by controversial incidents of police use of force, chronic discontent erupts into violence,” he wrote. | “In this interpretation, when activated by controversial incidents of police use of force, chronic discontent erupts into violence,” he wrote. |
| Exactly how this hypothesized “legitimacy crisis” might work – how frustration over police killings might translate into more community violence, and which individuals might therefore act differently – is unclear, Rosenfeld wrote. | Exactly how this hypothesized “legitimacy crisis” might work – how frustration over police killings might translate into more community violence, and which individuals might therefore act differently – is unclear, Rosenfeld wrote. |
| In Chicago on Monday, US attorney Zach Fardon said that though “no one knows for sure” why violence has spiked in the city, the timing of the spike closely followed the release of video of the police killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald. | In Chicago on Monday, US attorney Zach Fardon said that though “no one knows for sure” why violence has spiked in the city, the timing of the spike closely followed the release of video of the police killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald. |
| The McDonald case has prompted the firing of the police superintendent, a crisis of public confidence in Mayor Rahm Emmanuel and a US justice department investigation of the police department for potential civil rights violations regarding racial disparities in use of force. | The McDonald case has prompted the firing of the police superintendent, a crisis of public confidence in Mayor Rahm Emmanuel and a US justice department investigation of the police department for potential civil rights violations regarding racial disparities in use of force. |
| “The fallout in public confidence, the apparent embattlement of police on all fronts has created a sense of emboldment [sic] among gangs, especially in our most violence-afflicted neighborhoods,” Fardon said. | “The fallout in public confidence, the apparent embattlement of police on all fronts has created a sense of emboldment [sic] among gangs, especially in our most violence-afflicted neighborhoods,” Fardon said. |
| “Some gang members apparently have felt they can get away with more and so bullets started flying.” | “Some gang members apparently have felt they can get away with more and so bullets started flying.” |
| Chicago has seen what some observers have called a perfect storm of factors that contribute to violence. These have included a state budget crisis; cuts in funding for summer jobs, mental healthcare and a citywide gang violence prevention program; a shrunken force of police detectives; drops in official measures of proactive policing efforts, including stops and overall arrests; and a clearance rate for non-fatal shootings that has fallen to under 4%. | |
| In most of the city’s 2,600 shooting incidents so far this year, there have been no arrests. | In most of the city’s 2,600 shooting incidents so far this year, there have been no arrests. |
| Fardon’s suggestion that Chicago’s increase in violence could be linked to falling morale among police officers and thus reduced willingness to conduct stops, and a related “emboldment” of gang members, echoes comments by James Comey in which the FBI director has linked increases in violence in cities across the country to changes in police behavior. | Fardon’s suggestion that Chicago’s increase in violence could be linked to falling morale among police officers and thus reduced willingness to conduct stops, and a related “emboldment” of gang members, echoes comments by James Comey in which the FBI director has linked increases in violence in cities across the country to changes in police behavior. |
| Comey has suggested that murder increases might be linked to “marginal pullbacks by lots and lots of police officers”, in the face of continued protests over police killings of black Americans. | Comey has suggested that murder increases might be linked to “marginal pullbacks by lots and lots of police officers”, in the face of continued protests over police killings of black Americans. |
| The Obama administration, however, has repeatedly disputed any link between protests for police reform and increases in murder, with the attorney general, Loretta Lynch, saying there is “no data” to support the theory that a “Ferguson effect” is behind the dramatic increase in murders in 2015, the biggest single-year percentage increase in 45 years. | |
| Enough to prove a crime trend? | Enough to prove a crime trend? |
| In a report on 2016 murder trends in big cities, the Brennan Center for Justice considered several factors that might help explain murder increases in some cities, including economic factors, shrinking police forces and a “decrease in police legitimacy”. | In a report on 2016 murder trends in big cities, the Brennan Center for Justice considered several factors that might help explain murder increases in some cities, including economic factors, shrinking police forces and a “decrease in police legitimacy”. |
| Another theory the report proposed was that “cities with long-term socioeconomic problems (high poverty, unemployment and racial segregation) are more prone to short-term spikes in crime.” | Another theory the report proposed was that “cities with long-term socioeconomic problems (high poverty, unemployment and racial segregation) are more prone to short-term spikes in crime.” |
| The Brennan Center analysis, based on mid-year crime data from the 30 largest US cities, projected an additional 13.1% increase in the murder rate in 2016, for a cumulative 31.5% increase from 2014 to 2016. Half of the murders propelling that increase would be attributable to Baltimore, Chicago and Houston, the report projected. | The Brennan Center analysis, based on mid-year crime data from the 30 largest US cities, projected an additional 13.1% increase in the murder rate in 2016, for a cumulative 31.5% increase from 2014 to 2016. Half of the murders propelling that increase would be attributable to Baltimore, Chicago and Houston, the report projected. |
| Experts caution that violence trends are intensely local and that changes in reported crime can be driven by so many factors that it is very difficult to isolate what is causing any increase or decrease. Whether the 10.8% increase in national murder numbers in 2015 was driven by any national or local factors is still far from clear. | Experts caution that violence trends are intensely local and that changes in reported crime can be driven by so many factors that it is very difficult to isolate what is causing any increase or decrease. Whether the 10.8% increase in national murder numbers in 2015 was driven by any national or local factors is still far from clear. |
| One year of data or even two is not enough to prove a crime trend, criminologists say. | One year of data or even two is not enough to prove a crime trend, criminologists say. |
| Some cities that share demographic similarities with the cities on the top 10 list –large proportions of African American residents, high poverty rates, historic struggles with gun violence, local activism against police violence towards black Americans – did not see big increases in murder in 2015. | Some cities that share demographic similarities with the cities on the top 10 list –large proportions of African American residents, high poverty rates, historic struggles with gun violence, local activism against police violence towards black Americans – did not see big increases in murder in 2015. |
| Detroit still has one of the country’s highest murder rates, but it saw its murders stay mostly flat, with three fewer than in 2014. Oakland, which continues to see large protests against police violence, saw only five additional murders in 2015. | Detroit still has one of the country’s highest murder rates, but it saw its murders stay mostly flat, with three fewer than in 2014. Oakland, which continues to see large protests against police violence, saw only five additional murders in 2015. |
| A closer look at the 10 cities with the largest murder increases also reveals sharp differences in their longer-term crime trends. For some cities, including Baltimore and Milwaukee, the 2015 murder spike was sharp and historic, pushing both cities to levels of violence they had not seen since the 1990s. | A closer look at the 10 cities with the largest murder increases also reveals sharp differences in their longer-term crime trends. For some cities, including Baltimore and Milwaukee, the 2015 murder spike was sharp and historic, pushing both cities to levels of violence they had not seen since the 1990s. |
| For others, like Philadelphia, the 2015 increase came after several years of historic lows in murders, following a sharp decrease in 2013. Even with last year’s increases, Philadelphia’s murder rate is still lower than it was in 2008. | For others, like Philadelphia, the 2015 increase came after several years of historic lows in murders, following a sharp decrease in 2013. Even with last year’s increases, Philadelphia’s murder rate is still lower than it was in 2008. |
| St Louis followed a third, more troubling trend. Its relatively modest murder uptick in 2015 followed years of previous increases, a trend that predated the killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson. | St Louis followed a third, more troubling trend. Its relatively modest murder uptick in 2015 followed years of previous increases, a trend that predated the killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson. |
| St Louis now has the highest murder rate in the country. Its murder rate has increased more than 60% since 2000. | St Louis now has the highest murder rate in the country. Its murder rate has increased more than 60% since 2000. |
| Only half of the 2015 increase in murders was concentrated in cities with a population of more than 250,000, according to FBI data. This means that smaller cities across the country, which typically have lower murder rates, also saw an estimated increase of more than 700 murders last year. | Only half of the 2015 increase in murders was concentrated in cities with a population of more than 250,000, according to FBI data. This means that smaller cities across the country, which typically have lower murder rates, also saw an estimated increase of more than 700 murders last year. |
| Additional reporting by Ciara McCarthy | Additional reporting by Ciara McCarthy |
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