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Dangerous Hurricane Matthew closes in on Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba; still watching possible U.S. East Coast impacts Extremely dangerous Hurricane Matthew heading for Haiti, Cuba and Jamaica; some U.S. impacts likely
(1 day later)
Hurricane Matthew remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with peak winds of 150 mph. It shows no signs of weakening, either — with favorable winds and deep warm waters ahead of it, there is plenty of fuel to keep it going. Hurricane Matthew remains an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane, and it is now less than a day away from producing a prolonged period of life-threatening conditions in parts of Haiti, Cuba and Jamaica. Ultimately, those conditions will extend into the Bahamas.
After a brief stall, the northward turn did take place on Saturday evening as predicted, and the storm is now crawling toward the northwest at 5 mph. It should pick up some speed today, and conditions will deteriorate in Jamaica and Haiti later today, with the worst arriving tomorrow. All areas near the predicted path are under hurricane warnings or watches, and the impacts include destructive winds, significant storm surges along the coastlines, and inland flooding and mudslides. Some impacts along the U.S. East Coast now appear to be more likely as we look toward the weekend, although there is a large amount of uncertainty. While there is more suggestion of a coastal scrape than a landfall at this time, a U.S. landfall certainly isn’t out of the question.
This part of the Caribbean is no stranger to high-end hurricanes, but, unfortunately, the impacts are usually catastrophic. Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba are all mountainous, and that helps to enhance the rainfall amounts and generate terrible flash flooding and mudslides. According to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory, “Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.” Matthew’s maximum winds are back up to 140 mph after falling slightly overnight. It is expected to maintain that intensity until land interactions start to affect it.
Florida should certainly still be on alert, and impacts further north from the Carolinas through New England cannot be ruled out yet either. Most models keep the center of the storm 200 to 400 miles east of Florida’s coastline, but even so, tropical storm conditions would still be possible in Florida from Wednesday through Friday, and there is still time for the track to shift a bit. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the eastern Bahamas. It is tracking due north at 6 mph, and that slow forward motion will unfortunately keep the high wind and heavy rain over the same areas for an extended amount of time. Some places may be battered for perhaps two days.
Several models are indicating a track that would actually maximize the time over warm water, with minimal disruption to the storm’s intensity. Matthew could “thread the needle,” sneaking through the Jamaica Channel and the Windward Passage. Since 1851, the only hurricane we could find that passed completely through both gaps was Tomas in 2010, although Hazel in 1954 was very close (the center clipped Haiti twice). Although tropical storm force winds extend about 135 miles from the center, hurricane-force winds only extend out to roughly 30 miles.
Although no Category 4 or 5 hurricane has ever passed through this area from the south, other such hurricanes have passed through the area with devastating consequences. Infamous storms such as Dean (2007), Ivan (2004), Gilbert (1988), Allen (1980), Cleo (1964) and Flora (1963) are etched in people’s memories and stories. If the center stays far enough from Jamaica, that nation could avoid the worst of the winds, although heavy rain is still a big concern.
The storm intensity has clearly been a wildcard, as the tremendous rapid intensification that occurred Friday was not predicted by anything and anyone. But the track has been fairly “well-behaved.” The map below shows Matthew’s track history (thick black line with diamonds) as well as all of the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecasts since last Wednesday, when it became a tropical storm. Over those five days, the forecast track has been slightly too far north — meaning the storm stayed farther south than expected — but the northward turn is in line with past forecasts. Over the next couple of days, we’ll see how well the forecast positions between Jamaica and Haiti verify. The storm surge along Haiti’s and Cuba’s southern coasts is predicted to be 7 to 11 feet. This is a very real danger must not be overlooked or underestimated. The rainfall forecast for Haiti is especially ominous, but eastern Jamaica and eastern Cuba are not far behind. Parts of Haiti could receive up to 40 inches of rain. This is likely to produce terrible flash floods and mudslides.
Although all eyes are focused on the big islands in the Greater Antilles now, the entire U.S. East Coast needs to be aware of potential impacts in the coming week, especially given the track uncertainty. Latest from @NWSWPC International Desk #Matthew rainfall. pic.twitter.com/2QxwLV6MaA — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) October 2, 2016
Below, you can see the range in storm tracks from different models: Latest from @NWSWPC International Desk #Matthew rainfall. pic.twitter.com/2QxwLV6MaA
Note that the GFS model and its group of simulations track Matthew very close to the East Coast, with the storm bringing impacts to the Mid-Atlantic late in the week: — Greg Carbin (@GCarbin) October 2, 2016
The European model and its simulations are generally slower with the northward progress of Matthew and further out to sea: At approximately 2 a.m. EDT Monday, Matthew’s eye passed almost directly over a buoy (42058) in the central Caribbean and recorded a 943 millibar surface pressure in the eye, with 74 mph sustained winds and 92 mph wind gusts in both sides of the eyewall.
This situation requires close monitoring. It is extraordinary to have a major hurricane pass right over a buoy — and as a bonus, the buoy survived! Extreme wind speeds reported by buoys can be tricky to interpret though, because the buoy bobs up and down with the swells and waves, so when the buoy is on the crest of a wave it is fully exposed to the winds, but when it is in a trough between waves, it is blocked somewhat. In this case, the “significant wave height” was 34 feet, or about 20 feet higher than the anemometer.
Haiti has been hit or grazed by numerous very strong hurricanes over the centuries, but even weaker storms that pass nearby have produced devastating floods and mudslides.
Direct landfalls on Haiti, by major hurricanes, include David (1979), Inez (1966), Cleo (1964), Flora (1963) and Hazel (1954). Several other extremely intense storms passed very close, such as Allen (1980). Other recent natural disasters include the 2008 hurricane season when hurricanes Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike all ravaged the country, and then the infamous 2010 earthquake. It currently seems unfortunately likely that Matthew will become an addition to that grim list.
[“Tropical Storm Matthew’s forecast is eerily similar to Hurricane Hazel’s in 1954“]
Looking beyond the next three days of continuous island encounters, Matthew’s longer-range track still keeps the U.S. East Coast in play.
It now appears likely that it will remain far enough east of Florida that only fringe effects and tropical storm conditions should be experienced along the peninsula on Thursday and Friday. This means prolonged full-blown hurricane conditions are not anticipated there. But we need to watch this, as a slight westward nudge in the track could bring hurricane conditions to parts of Florida’s east coast.
Looking further ahead to Friday and the weekend, the southeast United States, the Mid-Atlantic states and the northeast are certainly still at risk. Matthew could still be a strong hurricane at that time as well.
The European and GFS ensembles are shown above. Both have plenty of ensemble members that track over or very close to the coastline. Other skillful track models agree on a too-close-to-call scenario this far out.
The latest five-day tropical storm wind speed probability map includes greater than 20 percent probabilities for eastern Florida and the Carolinas. Keep in mind that this product extends out only to early Saturday morning. Even if the storm remains offshore, it could be close enough to produce storm surges and coastal erosion.
The timing and strength of a subtropical ridge to the east of Matthew will determine if the storm will continue out to sea or if it will make landfall first and then get pushed out by the next cold front.
Matthew has now been a major hurricane for 72 hours, and it had winds of at least 145 mph for a much of that time. CWG’s tropical analyst Phil Klotzbach pointed out last night that this is the longest we’ve had such a strong storm in the Atlantic Ocean in 11 years!
Hurricane #Matthew has had max winds >=145 mph or more for past 54 hours – longest streak of winds that strong in Atl since Wilma (2005). pic.twitter.com/coAw61FCBE — Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 3, 2016
Hurricane #Matthew has had max winds >=145 mph or more for past 54 hours – longest streak of winds that strong in Atl since Wilma (2005). pic.twitter.com/coAw61FCBE
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 3, 2016
We can also see that Matthew is quite unusual across history in this kind of strength maintenance.
Hurricane #Matthew has been maintaining category 4+ intensity for over two days now. This is longer than 75% of all cat 4+ storms since 1851 pic.twitter.com/fHMxCoryGw — Sam Lillo (@splillo) October 2, 2016
Hurricane #Matthew has been maintaining category 4+ intensity for over two days now. This is longer than 75% of all cat 4+ storms since 1851 pic.twitter.com/fHMxCoryGw
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) October 2, 2016
Prior to Matthew’s formation, the season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was at approximately 70 percent of an average season for the date. As of today, the season is at about 89 percent of average for this date. ACE is a metric that takes into account both the intensity and the longevity of tropical cyclones, so a long-lived strong hurricane will make a big contribution.
With Matthew expected to continue churning for at least a week to 10 days, these ACE numbers will continue to rise. The storm’s overall toll will increase as well, as it begins to impact population in a way it has not done to this point.