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| Low turnout will nullify Hungarian vote on refugees, initial results suggest | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, appears to have failed to convince a majority of his country to participate in a referendum on refugees, undermining his self-professed campaign for a cultural counter-revolution within the EU. | |
| Final data has yet to be released, and the vast majority of participants in Sunday’s poll are likely to have sided with Orbán by voting against the admission of refugees to Hungary. But, despite the government having mounted the largest advertising campaign in Hungarian history, initial results suggested that more than half of the electorate have stayed away from the polls, rendering the process constitutionally null and void. | |
| “They will not even approach the 50% threshold,” said Lazslo Robi, an elections and polling specialist at the Political Capital Institute, a Budapest-based thinktank. “They’ve failed this challenge.” | “They will not even approach the 50% threshold,” said Lazslo Robi, an elections and polling specialist at the Political Capital Institute, a Budapest-based thinktank. “They’ve failed this challenge.” |
| The projected result is likely to come as a relief to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and EU officials in Brussels, whose refugee policies and political outlook have been under sustained assault from Orbán in recent months. | The projected result is likely to come as a relief to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and EU officials in Brussels, whose refugee policies and political outlook have been under sustained assault from Orbán in recent months. |
| Internationally, Orbán’s referendum was seen as a plebiscite not just on the EU’s refugee-sharing quota – which amounts to 1,294 refugees resettling in Hungary from Greece and Italy – but on the role of nation-state and the future of liberal democracy within the EU. | Internationally, Orbán’s referendum was seen as a plebiscite not just on the EU’s refugee-sharing quota – which amounts to 1,294 refugees resettling in Hungary from Greece and Italy – but on the role of nation-state and the future of liberal democracy within the EU. |
| Presenting himself as the voice of the European masses, Orbán has previously called for a cultural counter-revolution within the EU, and praised aspects of illiberal strongman leadership that are anathema to the EU’s professed values. | Presenting himself as the voice of the European masses, Orbán has previously called for a cultural counter-revolution within the EU, and praised aspects of illiberal strongman leadership that are anathema to the EU’s professed values. |
| Orbán himself tried to put a positive spin on the low turnout. He argued that while “a valid [referendum] is always better than an invalid [referendum]” the high proportion of no-voters still gave him a mandate to go to Brussels next week “to ensure that we should not be forced to accept in Hungary people we don’t want to live with”. | Orbán himself tried to put a positive spin on the low turnout. He argued that while “a valid [referendum] is always better than an invalid [referendum]” the high proportion of no-voters still gave him a mandate to go to Brussels next week “to ensure that we should not be forced to accept in Hungary people we don’t want to live with”. |
| But analysts said that because Orbán had set expectations so high before the referendum, anything less than a valid vote would be seen by his critics as a defeat. | But analysts said that because Orbán had set expectations so high before the referendum, anything less than a valid vote would be seen by his critics as a defeat. |
| “It’s a tricky situation because at least 3 million people voted – and this amount of people could be regarded a huge success,” said Robi. “But now this could also be regarded as a huge failure, because Orbán set the bar much higher. He’ll still say that the Hungarian nation is behind him, but Brussels will be able to say: you didn’t hold a valid referendum.” | “It’s a tricky situation because at least 3 million people voted – and this amount of people could be regarded a huge success,” said Robi. “But now this could also be regarded as a huge failure, because Orbán set the bar much higher. He’ll still say that the Hungarian nation is behind him, but Brussels will be able to say: you didn’t hold a valid referendum.” |
| Robi added: “The stakes were too high, they had led a very harsh campaign for months – even in June, during the European football championships, there were huge TV advertising campaigns during the half-time breaks. Everyone thought Orbán could do it – so this is a failure for him.” | Robi added: “The stakes were too high, they had led a very harsh campaign for months – even in June, during the European football championships, there were huge TV advertising campaigns during the half-time breaks. Everyone thought Orbán could do it – so this is a failure for him.” |