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| Colombia’s Brexit moment as politicians misjudge popular anger at Farc amnesty | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Colombia’s rejection of a peace deal with Farc rebels to end 52 years of war does not mean an automatic return to hostilities, but it makes the possibility of peace, which had looked close enough to touch, once again a faraway prospect. | Colombia’s rejection of a peace deal with Farc rebels to end 52 years of war does not mean an automatic return to hostilities, but it makes the possibility of peace, which had looked close enough to touch, once again a faraway prospect. |
| All the pieces were in place to begin implementation of a deal that was four years in the making after talks between government and Farc negotiators in Havana. The Farc had ratified the accord at a national conference, President Juan Manuel Santos and Farc leader Timochenko had signed it in a public ceremony and UN monitors were ready to oversee the bringing together and disarmament of the Farc’s 5,800 fighters. The Nobel committee was reportedly considering a peace prize for Colombia. | All the pieces were in place to begin implementation of a deal that was four years in the making after talks between government and Farc negotiators in Havana. The Farc had ratified the accord at a national conference, President Juan Manuel Santos and Farc leader Timochenko had signed it in a public ceremony and UN monitors were ready to oversee the bringing together and disarmament of the Farc’s 5,800 fighters. The Nobel committee was reportedly considering a peace prize for Colombia. |
| But when put to a popular vote, Colombians on Sunday said no, even if by a razor thin margin. Only 37% of eligible voters cast a ballot. Of those who did 50.2% voted against the peace deal, to the yes vote’s 49.7%. | But when put to a popular vote, Colombians on Sunday said no, even if by a razor thin margin. Only 37% of eligible voters cast a ballot. Of those who did 50.2% voted against the peace deal, to the yes vote’s 49.7%. |
| Like the EU referendum in Britain, it was a risk that Santos was not obliged to take: a yes/no vote over a complicated deal which had strong international support but tapped into and stirred a visceral resentment among many ordinary voters against the Farc. The difference is that this vote aimed to stop a war. | Like the EU referendum in Britain, it was a risk that Santos was not obliged to take: a yes/no vote over a complicated deal which had strong international support but tapped into and stirred a visceral resentment among many ordinary voters against the Farc. The difference is that this vote aimed to stop a war. |
| The result stunned the government, the Farc, analysts and even some no supporters. “This is a reality check,” said Kristian Herbolzheimer , a conflict resolution expert with Conciliation Resources, a UK-based peace consultancy. | The result stunned the government, the Farc, analysts and even some no supporters. “This is a reality check,” said Kristian Herbolzheimer , a conflict resolution expert with Conciliation Resources, a UK-based peace consultancy. |
| Seeking to assuage fears of a return to war, both government and Farc quickly said that despite the setback they would insist on peace. Santos said a bilateral ceasefire in effect for just over a month would continue while the Farc said they would use their words as their weapons. | Seeking to assuage fears of a return to war, both government and Farc quickly said that despite the setback they would insist on peace. Santos said a bilateral ceasefire in effect for just over a month would continue while the Farc said they would use their words as their weapons. |
| Herbolzheimer says that the peace process will now continue under new parameters. “It won’t just be a dialogue between the government and Farc anymore,” he said. “They will have to look for creative solutions that could turn them into multi-party talks.” | Herbolzheimer says that the peace process will now continue under new parameters. “It won’t just be a dialogue between the government and Farc anymore,” he said. “They will have to look for creative solutions that could turn them into multi-party talks.” |
| Santos has called for a dialogue with all political factions, including the no campaign led by his fiercest critic, former president Álvaro Uribe. Although Santos was Uribe’s defence minister the two have become bitter enemies after Santos, following his election as president, did not continue Uribe’s hardline policies against the Farc, instead sitting down to negotiations with the rebels. | Santos has called for a dialogue with all political factions, including the no campaign led by his fiercest critic, former president Álvaro Uribe. Although Santos was Uribe’s defence minister the two have become bitter enemies after Santos, following his election as president, did not continue Uribe’s hardline policies against the Farc, instead sitting down to negotiations with the rebels. |
| The deal they came up with included provisions for the Farc to sever their ties to the drug trade, lay down their weapons and transition into a political movement. While rank and file fighters would have been granted amnesty, leaders would face a special tribunal where, if they confessed, they would have been sentenced to punishments stopping short of imprisonment. | The deal they came up with included provisions for the Farc to sever their ties to the drug trade, lay down their weapons and transition into a political movement. While rank and file fighters would have been granted amnesty, leaders would face a special tribunal where, if they confessed, they would have been sentenced to punishments stopping short of imprisonment. |
| Uribe said that the deal reached with the Farc granted impunity to leaders responsible for serious crimes, rewarded criminals by allowing them to participate in politics and eroded Colombia’s constitution and institutions. | Uribe said that the deal reached with the Farc granted impunity to leaders responsible for serious crimes, rewarded criminals by allowing them to participate in politics and eroded Colombia’s constitution and institutions. |
| But whether a new deal can be made is unclear. “The burden now will be on Uribe to prove that he can come up with a better plan,” Herbolzheimer said. “It’s difficult to say what is possible and what is not.” | But whether a new deal can be made is unclear. “The burden now will be on Uribe to prove that he can come up with a better plan,” Herbolzheimer said. “It’s difficult to say what is possible and what is not.” |
| Analyst Héctor Riveros said a direct meeting between Uribe and Farc leader Timochenko may happen soon, although Uribe rejected a Farc invitation in May to talks in Havana. | Analyst Héctor Riveros said a direct meeting between Uribe and Farc leader Timochenko may happen soon, although Uribe rejected a Farc invitation in May to talks in Havana. |
| They do have one interest in common though. Both the guerrillas and Uribe have called for a constituent assembly to rewrite the 1991 constitution. It may be a way out of the knotty situation Colombia now finds itself in, but opens the door for the Farc to revive demands that had been discarded in the negotiations. | They do have one interest in common though. Both the guerrillas and Uribe have called for a constituent assembly to rewrite the 1991 constitution. It may be a way out of the knotty situation Colombia now finds itself in, but opens the door for the Farc to revive demands that had been discarded in the negotiations. |
| “The Farc are going to raise the bar again and go back to their original demands,” predicted Fernando Giraldo, a political analyst. | “The Farc are going to raise the bar again and go back to their original demands,” predicted Fernando Giraldo, a political analyst. |
| He also warned that while the Farc have maintained strict command over their troops, the results of the vote may begin to show fissures in the guerrillas’ resolve for peace. Even before the plebiscite, renegade members of one rebel unit had said they would not join the peace deal. | He also warned that while the Farc have maintained strict command over their troops, the results of the vote may begin to show fissures in the guerrillas’ resolve for peace. Even before the plebiscite, renegade members of one rebel unit had said they would not join the peace deal. |
| “Now the Farc are completely vulnerable and open to profound divisions,” Giraldo said. “They are going to be afraid that this could all fall apart at any moment.” | “Now the Farc are completely vulnerable and open to profound divisions,” Giraldo said. “They are going to be afraid that this could all fall apart at any moment.” |
| Despite the outcome, Herbolzheimer said he doesn’t think it was a mistake to put the deal to a popular vote. “It they hadn’t had the plebiscite those opposed would have, for the rest of history, blamed Santos for everything that might have gone wrong.” | Despite the outcome, Herbolzheimer said he doesn’t think it was a mistake to put the deal to a popular vote. “It they hadn’t had the plebiscite those opposed would have, for the rest of history, blamed Santos for everything that might have gone wrong.” |
| Meanwhile analyst Fernando Cepeda said the unexpected situation Colombia finds itself in may prove advantageous. | Meanwhile analyst Fernando Cepeda said the unexpected situation Colombia finds itself in may prove advantageous. |
| “It’s possible that this may be a great opportunity to build a peace with a national consensus,” he said. | “It’s possible that this may be a great opportunity to build a peace with a national consensus,” he said. |