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| Earls Court regeneration: reviews and uncertainties | Earls Court regeneration: reviews and uncertainties |
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| Nine years after its ingredients first began to be combined, the future of one of London’s largest and most contested redevelopment schemes looks as clear as mud soup. The Earls Court Project, guided by architect Sir Terry Farrell’s 2010 masterplan, foresaw the closure and destruction of the Earls Court exhibition centre, the relocation of London Underground’s Lillie Bridge maintenance depot and the demolition of 760 homes on two council estates. In their place, and also covering the nearby exhibition centre car park, would rise clusters of mostly very expensive flats together with a new high street to help form and connect four “villages”. Today, some of the masterplan has been partly put into effect but much of it is mired in uncertainty. | Nine years after its ingredients first began to be combined, the future of one of London’s largest and most contested redevelopment schemes looks as clear as mud soup. The Earls Court Project, guided by architect Sir Terry Farrell’s 2010 masterplan, foresaw the closure and destruction of the Earls Court exhibition centre, the relocation of London Underground’s Lillie Bridge maintenance depot and the demolition of 760 homes on two council estates. In their place, and also covering the nearby exhibition centre car park, would rise clusters of mostly very expensive flats together with a new high street to help form and connect four “villages”. Today, some of the masterplan has been partly put into effect but much of it is mired in uncertainty. |
| During the mayoral election campaign, Sadiq Khan disparaged the project for the low number of additional “affordable” homes it proposed. Of the 7,500 that principal developer Capital and Counties (Capco) has permission to build, 760 would be replacements for those knocked down on the two estates and only 740 of the remaining 6,740 would be “affordable”, all of them of the “intermediate” variety aimed at middle income households. That represents a net “affordable” gain of just 11% of the new housing across the entire project area in a major transformation that’s also been opposed on economic, cultural, architectural and environmental grounds. | During the mayoral election campaign, Sadiq Khan disparaged the project for the low number of additional “affordable” homes it proposed. Of the 7,500 that principal developer Capital and Counties (Capco) has permission to build, 760 would be replacements for those knocked down on the two estates and only 740 of the remaining 6,740 would be “affordable”, all of them of the “intermediate” variety aimed at middle income households. That represents a net “affordable” gain of just 11% of the new housing across the entire project area in a major transformation that’s also been opposed on economic, cultural, architectural and environmental grounds. |
| Khan promised to review the scheme if he won. The question now is what can and should be done to change it to make it more to the liking of the new mayor and to other critics, most notably campaigners opposed to the demolition of the two estates and Labour-run Hammersmith and Fulham council (H&F). | Khan promised to review the scheme if he won. The question now is what can and should be done to change it to make it more to the liking of the new mayor and to other critics, most notably campaigners opposed to the demolition of the two estates and Labour-run Hammersmith and Fulham council (H&F). |
| As Khan has pointed out in a written answer to a question from Liberal Democrat AM Caroline Pidgeon, he has no power to revoke the borough planning consents currently covering the entire development area that were granted by H&F when it was under Tory control and by its Tory neighbour Kensington and Chelsea, all of them waved through by his predecessor Boris Johnson. | As Khan has pointed out in a written answer to a question from Liberal Democrat AM Caroline Pidgeon, he has no power to revoke the borough planning consents currently covering the entire development area that were granted by H&F when it was under Tory control and by its Tory neighbour Kensington and Chelsea, all of them waved through by his predecessor Boris Johnson. |
| However, he has also underlined to Pidgeon that “should a new masterplan be submitted” he would assess it “against the policies set out in the London Plan”, the legally-binding planning framework for the whole of Greater London. Khan intends to change the London Plan and, in the meantime, will soon be publishing supplementary planning guidance reflecting how he will seek to pursue his goals in the context of a document that currently enshrines Johnson’s. | |
| Khan’s election is not the only important new factor in the Earls Court Project story. Market conditions were already changing and have been further affected by Brexit. An oversupply of expensive properties in “prime” central London led to a collapse in Capco’s share price early this year. Rumours of a takeover persist. However, in July, the company’s chief executive told the Telegraph he had suggested to the Greater London Authority (GLA) that it would be possible to increase the grand total of Earls Court Project dwellings from 7,500 to 10,000. | Khan’s election is not the only important new factor in the Earls Court Project story. Market conditions were already changing and have been further affected by Brexit. An oversupply of expensive properties in “prime” central London led to a collapse in Capco’s share price early this year. Rumours of a takeover persist. However, in July, the company’s chief executive told the Telegraph he had suggested to the Greater London Authority (GLA) that it would be possible to increase the grand total of Earls Court Project dwellings from 7,500 to 10,000. |
| Capco says it will be making formal representations to the GLA about Earls Court as Khan’s revision of the London Plan gets underway, adding that “no decision has been reached on whether any [new] planning application will result from this process”. Meanwhile, Khan has said his officers are “working closely” with H&F, which is committed to securing a better deal for the estates’ residents. An answer from him to Pidgeon relating specifically to the Lillie Bridge depot, which also lies within H&F, serves as a reminder that changes can be made to existing planning consents. | Capco says it will be making formal representations to the GLA about Earls Court as Khan’s revision of the London Plan gets underway, adding that “no decision has been reached on whether any [new] planning application will result from this process”. Meanwhile, Khan has said his officers are “working closely” with H&F, which is committed to securing a better deal for the estates’ residents. An answer from him to Pidgeon relating specifically to the Lillie Bridge depot, which also lies within H&F, serves as a reminder that changes can be made to existing planning consents. |
| It seems that all interested parties are in some sense reviewing the state of the scheme, which has vividly illustrated the perils and discontents of major regeneration projects that involve expunging character-defining local institutions, knocking down large numbers of peoples’ homes and are heavily dependent on the vagaries of global property investment. Some parts of this one cannot now be undone, but much remains in flux. Here’s a brief rundown of what’s happening on the project area’s four principal sites. | It seems that all interested parties are in some sense reviewing the state of the scheme, which has vividly illustrated the perils and discontents of major regeneration projects that involve expunging character-defining local institutions, knocking down large numbers of peoples’ homes and are heavily dependent on the vagaries of global property investment. Some parts of this one cannot now be undone, but much remains in flux. Here’s a brief rundown of what’s happening on the project area’s four principal sites. |
| Lillie Square | Lillie Square |
| This site on Seagrave Road is what used to be the exhibition centre car park. With a 50/50 joint venture between a Capco subsidiary and what Capco describes as “entities in which certain members of the Kwok family are interested” - the Kwoks are well-known in Hong Kong real estate - has advanced more quickly than the other three due to being fully self-contained - separated from the others by Lillie Road - and having nothing large on it that needed levelling. Real buildings have been springing from the ground next to West Brompton station, just up the road from the Stamford Bridge ground of Chelsea FC. | This site on Seagrave Road is what used to be the exhibition centre car park. With a 50/50 joint venture between a Capco subsidiary and what Capco describes as “entities in which certain members of the Kwok family are interested” - the Kwoks are well-known in Hong Kong real estate - has advanced more quickly than the other three due to being fully self-contained - separated from the others by Lillie Road - and having nothing large on it that needed levelling. Real buildings have been springing from the ground next to West Brompton station, just up the road from the Stamford Bridge ground of Chelsea FC. |
| If completed as planned, Lillie Square, forming the heart of a theoretical West Brompton village, will eventually contain 808 residential units, including 200 of the 760 replacements for those just down the road that would be lost, though these would be hived off from the luxury apartments and their plush communal facilities. | If completed as planned, Lillie Square, forming the heart of a theoretical West Brompton village, will eventually contain 808 residential units, including 200 of the 760 replacements for those just down the road that would be lost, though these would be hived off from the luxury apartments and their plush communal facilities. |
| Sales of the market-priced properties have been slow, with one estate agent telling the Financial Times that at this rate it would take Capco 150 years to sell all 6,000 of the market-priced homes it has permission to build across the project area in total. Will they drop their prices? What would be the implications for the rest of the masterplan, including the delivery of the 740 additional “affordable” homes, if they did? | Sales of the market-priced properties have been slow, with one estate agent telling the Financial Times that at this rate it would take Capco 150 years to sell all 6,000 of the market-priced homes it has permission to build across the project area in total. Will they drop their prices? What would be the implications for the rest of the masterplan, including the delivery of the 740 additional “affordable” homes, if they did? |
| Earls Court Village | Earls Court Village |
| An expanse of flat brownfield now fills the space where the exhibition centre stood, awaiting the construction of 1,300 residential units bisected by a linear park. The land is owned by Transport for London (TfL), which has formed a joint venture company - Earls Court Partnership Ltd - with Capco to do the developing and make money to spend on London’s transport networks. None of the putative homes, which have yet to be marketed for “off plan” sale, are intended to be “affordable”. Capco has anticipated “luxury retail, dining in the park, culture, leisure and services for the modern day city-dweller” being provided for residents of medium and high-rise blocks arranged round “courtyard squares”. | An expanse of flat brownfield now fills the space where the exhibition centre stood, awaiting the construction of 1,300 residential units bisected by a linear park. The land is owned by Transport for London (TfL), which has formed a joint venture company - Earls Court Partnership Ltd - with Capco to do the developing and make money to spend on London’s transport networks. None of the putative homes, which have yet to be marketed for “off plan” sale, are intended to be “affordable”. Capco has anticipated “luxury retail, dining in the park, culture, leisure and services for the modern day city-dweller” being provided for residents of medium and high-rise blocks arranged round “courtyard squares”. |
| Lillie Bridge Depot | Lillie Bridge Depot |
| This part of the project map has not yet been altered at all and may not be for several years - London Underground will have to relocate the depot’s facilities to Acton before anything else can be built there, which will take time. The depot land belongs to TfL, which means the mayor will want at least 50% of the housing it may eventually contain to be shared ownership “affordable” homes for long-term renting first-time buyers. If and when that happens, who will TfL partner with to build the homes and how many will there be? Will that quantity contribute to the final number of additional affordable homes in the entire project area being greater than the mere 740 originally planned? That may partly depend on what happens to... | This part of the project map has not yet been altered at all and may not be for several years - London Underground will have to relocate the depot’s facilities to Acton before anything else can be built there, which will take time. The depot land belongs to TfL, which means the mayor will want at least 50% of the housing it may eventually contain to be shared ownership “affordable” homes for long-term renting first-time buyers. If and when that happens, who will TfL partner with to build the homes and how many will there be? Will that quantity contribute to the final number of additional affordable homes in the entire project area being greater than the mere 740 originally planned? That may partly depend on what happens to... |
| The West Kensington and Gibbs Green estates | The West Kensington and Gibbs Green estates |
| The most complexity surrounds the 760 homes of these adjoining post-war estates, bordered at the western end of the project area by North End Road. Under the existing masterplan permissions, they are to be demolished in phases as and when replacements have been built. The slow progress on Lillie Square suggests nothing will get knocked down any time soon. But there remains a legal agreement made between Capco and the now former Conservative H&F administration to sell Capco the estates land for redevelopment as and when replacement homes are completed. | The most complexity surrounds the 760 homes of these adjoining post-war estates, bordered at the western end of the project area by North End Road. Under the existing masterplan permissions, they are to be demolished in phases as and when replacements have been built. The slow progress on Lillie Square suggests nothing will get knocked down any time soon. But there remains a legal agreement made between Capco and the now former Conservative H&F administration to sell Capco the estates land for redevelopment as and when replacement homes are completed. |
| The Tories’ Labour successors have said that, regretfully, this deal cannot be undone. Meanwhile, the estates’ tenants and residents’ associations are hoping the communities secretary will enable them to take ownership of the estates through a community-led housing association and enhance the existing stock in line with their “peoples’ plan”. The council is against this, and Mayor Khan, while suggesting that his housing deputy James Murray visits the campaigners to listen to their ideas, wrote in June that he thinks the best “best regeneration outcome” for residents is more likely to be achieved if the council remains their landlord. He’s said that GLA officers have been “working closely” with those of H&F to that end. | The Tories’ Labour successors have said that, regretfully, this deal cannot be undone. Meanwhile, the estates’ tenants and residents’ associations are hoping the communities secretary will enable them to take ownership of the estates through a community-led housing association and enhance the existing stock in line with their “peoples’ plan”. The council is against this, and Mayor Khan, while suggesting that his housing deputy James Murray visits the campaigners to listen to their ideas, wrote in June that he thinks the best “best regeneration outcome” for residents is more likely to be achieved if the council remains their landlord. He’s said that GLA officers have been “working closely” with those of H&F to that end. |
| Conclusions? | Conclusions? |
| What will emerge from all this is hard to predict. A fundamental issue is the extent to which the different parts of the project have been financially interconnected, with the extra “affordable” homes plus improvements to transport capacity, public realm and a new school all dependent on the sale of the expensive flats. Is the original masterplan still credible? The possibility of a new one being drawn up seems to exist. Where will Capco end up standing on all this? Where might TfL and the mayor want them to? | What will emerge from all this is hard to predict. A fundamental issue is the extent to which the different parts of the project have been financially interconnected, with the extra “affordable” homes plus improvements to transport capacity, public realm and a new school all dependent on the sale of the expensive flats. Is the original masterplan still credible? The possibility of a new one being drawn up seems to exist. Where will Capco end up standing on all this? Where might TfL and the mayor want them to? |
| There have been discussions between H&F and Capco about making the development even bigger and grander in return for getting the estates residents a better deal out of demolition. They ran into the sand, but maybe Capco’s “up to 10,000” suggestion means that type of outcome is possible after all. But it wouldn’t suit everyone. Even if the estate residents were satisfied with it, other locals might object on aesthetic and quality of life grounds. The one sure thing remains that this story is still a long way from its end. | There have been discussions between H&F and Capco about making the development even bigger and grander in return for getting the estates residents a better deal out of demolition. They ran into the sand, but maybe Capco’s “up to 10,000” suggestion means that type of outcome is possible after all. But it wouldn’t suit everyone. Even if the estate residents were satisfied with it, other locals might object on aesthetic and quality of life grounds. The one sure thing remains that this story is still a long way from its end. |