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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/05/brexit-fears-pound-lows-dollar-euro-service-sector-imf-business-live
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| Brexit recession fears fade as UK service sector beats forecasts – Business Live | Brexit recession fears fade as UK service sector beats forecasts – Business Live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.12pm BST | |
| 17:12 | |
| European markets end mixed | |
| A mild recovery in the pound after better than expected UK service sector numbers saw the FTSE 100 drift back after Tuesday’s - failed - attempt at a new record. Meanwhile talk that the European Central Bank might begin tapering its bond buying programme took the wind out of European markets, with most ending lower. But strong US services data lifted Wall Street, albeit also prompting renewed talk of US rate rises this year. The final scores in Europe showed: | |
| On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 129 points or 0.71%. | |
| As for the pound, it is up 0.17% at $1.2748 against the dollar and 0.19% higher at €1.1378. | |
| 4.19pm BST | 4.19pm BST |
| 16:19 | 16:19 |
| After Tuesday’s attempt at a new peak, the FTSE 100 continues to flounder as the day wears on. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: | After Tuesday’s attempt at a new peak, the FTSE 100 continues to flounder as the day wears on. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: |
| Today has seen a reversal of yesterday’s action, when the FTSE 100 soared (at least in the morning) as others fell back. Now, we have Wall Street advancing, and European markets paring losses, while the FTSE 100 languishes towards the bottom end of the day’s range. Having been such a boon in recent days, the pound has perhaps hindered the index today, although sterling has recovered only a fraction of the ground lost since the beginning of the week... | Today has seen a reversal of yesterday’s action, when the FTSE 100 soared (at least in the morning) as others fell back. Now, we have Wall Street advancing, and European markets paring losses, while the FTSE 100 languishes towards the bottom end of the day’s range. Having been such a boon in recent days, the pound has perhaps hindered the index today, although sterling has recovered only a fraction of the ground lost since the beginning of the week... |
| The US ISM non-manufacturing index hit a level not seen since November 2015, further boosting the cause of those expecting a Fed rate hike this year. US markets seemed happy to rally on the news, making up for the losses suffered yesterday. 2140 has held yet again for the S&P 500, putting the index in a good position to challenge the all-time highs once again. A bounce in oil prices undoubtedly helped, after stockpiles dropped once again. | The US ISM non-manufacturing index hit a level not seen since November 2015, further boosting the cause of those expecting a Fed rate hike this year. US markets seemed happy to rally on the news, making up for the losses suffered yesterday. 2140 has held yet again for the S&P 500, putting the index in a good position to challenge the all-time highs once again. A bounce in oil prices undoubtedly helped, after stockpiles dropped once again. |
| 4.14pm BST | 4.14pm BST |
| 16:14 | 16:14 |
| Back with the IMF, and in a new report it says global debt has hit a new record. Jill Treanor reports: | Back with the IMF, and in a new report it says global debt has hit a new record. Jill Treanor reports: |
| Global debt levels have reached a record $152tn (£119tn) according to the International Monetary Fund – more than double the size of the global economy at 225% of annual global output. | Global debt levels have reached a record $152tn (£119tn) according to the International Monetary Fund – more than double the size of the global economy at 225% of annual global output. |
| The Washington-based fund said that two-thirds of the debt – approximately $100tn is held by the private sector, or companies and households. The IMF warns that debt “can carry great risks [at] excessive levels”. | The Washington-based fund said that two-thirds of the debt – approximately $100tn is held by the private sector, or companies and households. The IMF warns that debt “can carry great risks [at] excessive levels”. |
| The Fund’s report shows that the overall debt level has not decreased since the the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, despite the fact that the most severe downturn of the post-war era was the consequence of too much reckless borrowing. | The Fund’s report shows that the overall debt level has not decreased since the the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, despite the fact that the most severe downturn of the post-war era was the consequence of too much reckless borrowing. |
| The IMF says that debt as a proportion of GDP has never been higher. | The IMF says that debt as a proportion of GDP has never been higher. |
| The full story is here: | The full story is here: |
| And here is analysis from our economics editor Larry Elliott, who says governments must heed the ticking debt timebomb: | And here is analysis from our economics editor Larry Elliott, who says governments must heed the ticking debt timebomb: |
| 3.46pm BST | 3.46pm BST |
| 15:46 | 15:46 |
| Oil prices are moving even higher after a surprise decrease in US crude stocks. | Oil prices are moving even higher after a surprise decrease in US crude stocks. |
| EIA Weekly Oil Inventories (Sep 30)Crude -2.98 Mln v +1.50 Mln exp, prev -1.88 MlnCushing +0.57 Mln v +0.36 Mln exp, prev -0.63 Mln | EIA Weekly Oil Inventories (Sep 30)Crude -2.98 Mln v +1.50 Mln exp, prev -1.88 MlnCushing +0.57 Mln v +0.36 Mln exp, prev -0.63 Mln |
| Brent crude is currently up 2% at $51.93 while West Texas Intermediate has jumped 2.3% to $49.84. | Brent crude is currently up 2% at $51.93 while West Texas Intermediate has jumped 2.3% to $49.84. |
| 3.39pm BST | 3.39pm BST |
| 15:39 | 15:39 |
| Elsewhere the International Monetary Fund has weighed in on Deutsche Bank, saying it was one of the banks which needed to convince investors its business model was viable in a low interest rate environment. The bank’s shares have fallen sharply on concerns about its balance sheet and the consequences of a possible $14bn fine by the US Department of Justice. | Elsewhere the International Monetary Fund has weighed in on Deutsche Bank, saying it was one of the banks which needed to convince investors its business model was viable in a low interest rate environment. The bank’s shares have fallen sharply on concerns about its balance sheet and the consequences of a possible $14bn fine by the US Department of Justice. |
| At the IMF meeting in Washington, the fund’s monetary and capital markets deputy director Peter Dattels said (quotes from Reuters): | At the IMF meeting in Washington, the fund’s monetary and capital markets deputy director Peter Dattels said (quotes from Reuters): |
| Deutsche Bank... is among banks that need to continue to adjust to convince investors that its business model is viable going forward and has addressed the issues of operational risk arising from litigation. | Deutsche Bank... is among banks that need to continue to adjust to convince investors that its business model is viable going forward and has addressed the issues of operational risk arising from litigation. |
| He said the German authorities were closely monitoring Deutsche Bank’s health and that the European financial system remained resilient. | He said the German authorities were closely monitoring Deutsche Bank’s health and that the European financial system remained resilient. |
| 3.32pm BST | 3.32pm BST |
| 15:32 | 15:32 |
| And the non-farms? | And the non-farms? |
| #US: Strong or weak jobs report for September on Friday? Markit #PMI's and #ISM's tell two different stories... pic.twitter.com/tN4cOH4el1 | #US: Strong or weak jobs report for September on Friday? Markit #PMI's and #ISM's tell two different stories... pic.twitter.com/tN4cOH4el1 |
| 3.18pm BST | 3.18pm BST |
| 15:18 | 15:18 |
| But which should investors look at most, the Markit or ISM figures? | But which should investors look at most, the Markit or ISM figures? |
| #US: Should markets listen to the weak Markit #PMI's or the strong #ISM's? They send two different signals about US Q3 #GDP growth pic.twitter.com/8n26iaQ6mw | #US: Should markets listen to the weak Markit #PMI's or the strong #ISM's? They send two different signals about US Q3 #GDP growth pic.twitter.com/8n26iaQ6mw |
| 3.16pm BST | 3.16pm BST |
| 15:16 | 15:16 |
| Despite these strong service sector figures Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, believes a US rate rise before December is unlikely: | Despite these strong service sector figures Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, believes a US rate rise before December is unlikely: |
| After slipping to a six-year low in August, the news that September’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI has rebounded strongly will be welcomed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. | After slipping to a six-year low in August, the news that September’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI has rebounded strongly will be welcomed by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. |
| The US economy has been sending out mixed signals in recent months, and the uncertainty has not been helped by the speculation swirling around a long-anticipated interest rate hike. | The US economy has been sending out mixed signals in recent months, and the uncertainty has not been helped by the speculation swirling around a long-anticipated interest rate hike. |
| Today’s positive figures make the case for a rate rise stronger but, as we enter the final weeks of the presidential race, the general consensus is that it is unlikely we will see any movement before December. | Today’s positive figures make the case for a rate rise stronger but, as we enter the final weeks of the presidential race, the general consensus is that it is unlikely we will see any movement before December. |
| But the surveys could be an indicator for Friday’s jobs figures: | But the surveys could be an indicator for Friday’s jobs figures: |
| Robust #ISM PMIs could edge softer than fcast #ADP data and point to #Nonfarm #payrolls above 170K | Robust #ISM PMIs could edge softer than fcast #ADP data and point to #Nonfarm #payrolls above 170K |
| 3.13pm BST | 3.13pm BST |
| 15:13 | 15:13 |
| Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s non-manufacturing survey committee, said: | Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s non-manufacturing survey committee, said: |
| The comments from the respondents are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty does exist due to geopolitical conditions coupled with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. | The comments from the respondents are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty does exist due to geopolitical conditions coupled with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. |
| And here are some of the comments highlighted by the ISM: | And here are some of the comments highlighted by the ISM: |
| 3.03pm BST | 3.03pm BST |
| 15:03 | 15:03 |
| The Institute for Supply Management service sector survey is also positive, even more so in fact. | The Institute for Supply Management service sector survey is also positive, even more so in fact. |
| Its non-manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1 in September, showing a strong rebound from 51.4 in August and well above estimates of a figure of 53. This is the highest level since October 2015 and the biggest rise in the index since February 2011. | Its non-manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1 in September, showing a strong rebound from 51.4 in August and well above estimates of a figure of 53. This is the highest level since October 2015 and the biggest rise in the index since February 2011. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.08pm BST | at 3.08pm BST |
| 2.59pm BST | 2.59pm BST |
| 14:59 | 14:59 |
| US service sector improves in September | US service sector improves in September |
| The first of the US service sector surveys shows a better than expected performance in September. | The first of the US service sector surveys shows a better than expected performance in September. |
| The Markit services final purchasing managers’ index came in at 52.3 compared to an initial reading of 51.9 and a figure of 51 in August. This is the highest level since April. | The Markit services final purchasing managers’ index came in at 52.3 compared to an initial reading of 51.9 and a figure of 51 in August. This is the highest level since April. |
| Markit’s final composite PMI figure for September was 52.3, up from the first reading of 52 and August’s 51.5. | Markit’s final composite PMI figure for September was 52.3, up from the first reading of 52 and August’s 51.5. |
| Markit: " the economy is growing at anannualized rate of only 1%" | Markit: " the economy is growing at anannualized rate of only 1%" |
| Markit: " Across both manufacturing and services the surveys point to the smallest monthly gain in jobs since April 2010" | Markit: " Across both manufacturing and services the surveys point to the smallest monthly gain in jobs since April 2010" |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.01pm BST | at 3.01pm BST |
| 2.49pm BST | 2.49pm BST |
| 14:49 | 14:49 |
| Wall Street opens higher | Wall Street opens higher |
| With oil prices continuing to rise - West Texas Intermediate is up 1.9% at $49.63 a barrel - US markets are heading higher. | With oil prices continuing to rise - West Texas Intermediate is up 1.9% at $49.63 a barrel - US markets are heading higher. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 99 points or 0.5% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both opened around 0.3% higher. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 99 points or 0.5% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both opened around 0.3% higher. |
| 2.34pm BST | 2.34pm BST |
| 14:34 | 14:34 |
| 2.32pm BST | 2.32pm BST |
| 14:32 | 14:32 |
| The ADP report still shows a strong jobs market, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of co-complier Moody’s Analytics: | The ADP report still shows a strong jobs market, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of co-complier Moody’s Analytics: |
| The current record of consecutive monthly job gains continued in September. With job openings at all-time highs and layoffs near all-time lows, the job market remains in full-swing. Job growth has moderated in recent months, but only because the economy is finally returning to full-employment. | The current record of consecutive monthly job gains continued in September. With job openings at all-time highs and layoffs near all-time lows, the job market remains in full-swing. Job growth has moderated in recent months, but only because the economy is finally returning to full-employment. |
| But Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute, said: | But Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute, said: |
| Job gains in September eased a bit when compared to the past 12-month average. We also observed softening this month in trade/transportation/utilities, possibly due to a continued tightening U.S. labor market and lackluster consumer spending. | Job gains in September eased a bit when compared to the past 12-month average. We also observed softening this month in trade/transportation/utilities, possibly due to a continued tightening U.S. labor market and lackluster consumer spending. |