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| Nicola Sturgeon’s manoeuvres offer a chance to shape Brexit Nicola Sturgeon’s manoeuvres offer a chance to shape Brexit | |
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| Last week’s Conservative conference has catalysed every corner of British politics. Theresa May’s insistence that the EU referendum gives her a mandate that could remove Britain from the European single market – and prerogative powers to achieve it – has proved to be a serious, perhaps ultimately even a fatal, piece of overreach and a blood transfusion to the opposition. As unintended consequences go, it doesn’t get much bigger than this. | Last week’s Conservative conference has catalysed every corner of British politics. Theresa May’s insistence that the EU referendum gives her a mandate that could remove Britain from the European single market – and prerogative powers to achieve it – has proved to be a serious, perhaps ultimately even a fatal, piece of overreach and a blood transfusion to the opposition. As unintended consequences go, it doesn’t get much bigger than this. |
| May’s approach to Brexit has roused parliament from 100 days of post-referendum uncertainty. It has put a bit of life into the Labour party. It has emboldened the moderate pro-European Tories. It has enraged the Scottish nationalists. And it has shown all three that they not only have a common interest in stopping it from happening, but that they can also achieve it by cooperating in the Westminster parliament, where they have a majority if they work sensibly. | May’s approach to Brexit has roused parliament from 100 days of post-referendum uncertainty. It has put a bit of life into the Labour party. It has emboldened the moderate pro-European Tories. It has enraged the Scottish nationalists. And it has shown all three that they not only have a common interest in stopping it from happening, but that they can also achieve it by cooperating in the Westminster parliament, where they have a majority if they work sensibly. |
| True, you might not have seen it that way if you had watched the SNP conference leap to its feet in Glasgow today as Nicola Sturgeon announced that she would publish a new draft independence bill next week. The delegates whooped at the announcement because many of them long for a rerun of the independence vote in September 2014, albeit with a different outcome, and perhaps even thought that was what the first minister had offered. But it is important to understand what Sturgeon didn’t say to them, as well as what she did. | True, you might not have seen it that way if you had watched the SNP conference leap to its feet in Glasgow today as Nicola Sturgeon announced that she would publish a new draft independence bill next week. The delegates whooped at the announcement because many of them long for a rerun of the independence vote in September 2014, albeit with a different outcome, and perhaps even thought that was what the first minister had offered. But it is important to understand what Sturgeon didn’t say to them, as well as what she did. |
| Sturgeon did not fire the starting gun on a second independence referendum today. She doesn’t want a second vote unless she thinks she can win it. At the moment she can’t do that. The current polling – the latest example was BMG’s poll in the Herald on Friday – all counsels caution. And, beneath the apparent bravado, caution is what the SNP leader offered. | Sturgeon did not fire the starting gun on a second independence referendum today. She doesn’t want a second vote unless she thinks she can win it. At the moment she can’t do that. The current polling – the latest example was BMG’s poll in the Herald on Friday – all counsels caution. And, beneath the apparent bravado, caution is what the SNP leader offered. |
| Her words tell that story for anyone who cares to read them carefully. “I am determined,” she said, “that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider the question of independence – and to do so before the UK leaves the EU – if that is necessary to protect our country’s interests.” Sturgeon gave herself more get-out-of-jail options in her speech than she would have had in an open prison. | Her words tell that story for anyone who cares to read them carefully. “I am determined,” she said, “that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider the question of independence – and to do so before the UK leaves the EU – if that is necessary to protect our country’s interests.” Sturgeon gave herself more get-out-of-jail options in her speech than she would have had in an open prison. |
| What she actually said elsewhere in her speech is important too. It’s not often you hear a Scottish nationalist leader make an apparently serious offer of “coalition” to Labour, Lib Dem and even moderate Tory leaders. But that’s not what Sturgeon did. She set out a list of Scottish aims, including devolved powers and access to the single market, that are predicated on remaining in the UK, not on breaking free of it, and which can only be achieved with support from others at Westminster. It’s why she said: “Today I want to concentrate on what we will do in the months ahead to protect the interests of Scotland and – in so far as we can – of the UK as a whole.” | What she actually said elsewhere in her speech is important too. It’s not often you hear a Scottish nationalist leader make an apparently serious offer of “coalition” to Labour, Lib Dem and even moderate Tory leaders. But that’s not what Sturgeon did. She set out a list of Scottish aims, including devolved powers and access to the single market, that are predicated on remaining in the UK, not on breaking free of it, and which can only be achieved with support from others at Westminster. It’s why she said: “Today I want to concentrate on what we will do in the months ahead to protect the interests of Scotland and – in so far as we can – of the UK as a whole.” |
| This is in part a tactical stance too, of course. When Sturgeon says the ball is in May’s court she is looking for, perhaps even hoping for, May to overreach again. The SNP are past masters at framing issues in such heads-we-win-tails-you-lose ways. But the pragmatic side of Sturgeon also sees the gathering pressure this week for the UK parliament to shape the Brexit process as a chance to achieve serious gains for Scotland without the very real danger of a lost second referendum. | This is in part a tactical stance too, of course. When Sturgeon says the ball is in May’s court she is looking for, perhaps even hoping for, May to overreach again. The SNP are past masters at framing issues in such heads-we-win-tails-you-lose ways. But the pragmatic side of Sturgeon also sees the gathering pressure this week for the UK parliament to shape the Brexit process as a chance to achieve serious gains for Scotland without the very real danger of a lost second referendum. |
| One reason why Sturgeon needs to do this is because she is not now quite as popular these days as either her Scottish or her English admirers imagine. It’s not just that Brexit has failed to generate the support for independence that many expected. It’s also that Sturgeon’s own satisfaction ratings among Scots have fallen sharply, down by 12 points since April. She now trails the Tories’ Ruth Davidson on satisfaction. The inference is that it is time for Sturgeon to deliver. | One reason why Sturgeon needs to do this is because she is not now quite as popular these days as either her Scottish or her English admirers imagine. It’s not just that Brexit has failed to generate the support for independence that many expected. It’s also that Sturgeon’s own satisfaction ratings among Scots have fallen sharply, down by 12 points since April. She now trails the Tories’ Ruth Davidson on satisfaction. The inference is that it is time for Sturgeon to deliver. |
| It is easy to see why some people on both sides of the border have convinced themselves that England and Wales’s Brexit vote might trigger Scotland’s departure from the United Kingdom. Even now, it’s not an outcome that can be wholly dismissed. But the claim is beginning to look seriously incompatible with the facts. Intriguingly, an opposite dynamic may now be the one to watch. Far from separating Scotland from Britain, Brexit may be drawing Scottish nationalism into the heart of British politics in a new and unexpected way. | It is easy to see why some people on both sides of the border have convinced themselves that England and Wales’s Brexit vote might trigger Scotland’s departure from the United Kingdom. Even now, it’s not an outcome that can be wholly dismissed. But the claim is beginning to look seriously incompatible with the facts. Intriguingly, an opposite dynamic may now be the one to watch. Far from separating Scotland from Britain, Brexit may be drawing Scottish nationalism into the heart of British politics in a new and unexpected way. |
| Much of this is down to May’s determined embrace of Brexit and the appointment of the Brexiteers to key posts in the government. What seemed tactically adept in the summer now seems more of a ball and chain, largely because of the studied vagueness of the government’s strategy. But the real catalyst is the gradual dissolution of economic confidence across the UK. | Much of this is down to May’s determined embrace of Brexit and the appointment of the Brexiteers to key posts in the government. What seemed tactically adept in the summer now seems more of a ball and chain, largely because of the studied vagueness of the government’s strategy. But the real catalyst is the gradual dissolution of economic confidence across the UK. |
| Those who said that the foreign exchange markets were the only real opposition to the May government may have had a point a week ago. But a lot has changed in a week. The continuing slide in the pound, the £66bn annual price tag for a hard Brexit, and then the temporary disappearance of Marmite from Tesco shelves all added to the sense that the May government is fiddling while British business burns. Public opinion has not had remorse about the referendum result yet, but that may change, opening up some political space for opponents of Brexit. | Those who said that the foreign exchange markets were the only real opposition to the May government may have had a point a week ago. But a lot has changed in a week. The continuing slide in the pound, the £66bn annual price tag for a hard Brexit, and then the temporary disappearance of Marmite from Tesco shelves all added to the sense that the May government is fiddling while British business burns. Public opinion has not had remorse about the referendum result yet, but that may change, opening up some political space for opponents of Brexit. |
| This presents a real rallying opportunity for pro-European and soft-Brexit forces alike. Sturgeon sniffs that opportunity. But the battle will be fought at Westminster, not Holyrood. This is uncomfortable from an SNP perspective; the party is always happiest haranguing from its home base at Holyrood, not wheeling and dealing at distant Westminster. But the votes and the power to change things are at Westminster and Whitehall. The election this week of the party’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson as Sturgeon’s new deputy is another reminder that the centre of gravity of Scottish politics has in some ways been shifting to London since 2015. | This presents a real rallying opportunity for pro-European and soft-Brexit forces alike. Sturgeon sniffs that opportunity. But the battle will be fought at Westminster, not Holyrood. This is uncomfortable from an SNP perspective; the party is always happiest haranguing from its home base at Holyrood, not wheeling and dealing at distant Westminster. But the votes and the power to change things are at Westminster and Whitehall. The election this week of the party’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson as Sturgeon’s new deputy is another reminder that the centre of gravity of Scottish politics has in some ways been shifting to London since 2015. |
| The big question is whether the opposition parties and the moderate Tories at Westminster have the programme, as well as the votes, to change the May government’s direction on Brexit. At this early stage, they have shown they have the power to put a divided government’s nose out of joint. Now they have to agree some shared red lines and to mobilise to promote them at every turn. That will be harder. It will involve creativity, as well as give and take. But the phoney war on Brexit is over, and British politics has at long last got real once again. | The big question is whether the opposition parties and the moderate Tories at Westminster have the programme, as well as the votes, to change the May government’s direction on Brexit. At this early stage, they have shown they have the power to put a divided government’s nose out of joint. Now they have to agree some shared red lines and to mobilise to promote them at every turn. That will be harder. It will involve creativity, as well as give and take. But the phoney war on Brexit is over, and British politics has at long last got real once again. |