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Five key questions about the battle for Mosul Five key questions about the battle for Mosul
(about 2 hours later)
After months of planning, a long-awaited ground assault on the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in the country, has begun. After months of planning, axf long-awaited ground assault on the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in the country, has begun.
Why is Mosul significant to Islamic State?Why is Mosul significant to Islamic State?
Mosul is Iraq’s second biggest city and was overrun by Isis in mid-2014. Since then, the terror group’s “caliphate” has shredded state authority in the region’s heartland, led to a mass exodus of refugees, attempted a genocide of minorities and created grave doubts over the future of Iraq. The city is Iraq’s second biggest and was overrun by Isis in mid-2014. Since then, the terror group’s “caliphate” has shredded state authority in the region’s heartland, led to a mass exodus of people, attempted a genocide of minorities and created grave doubts over the future of Iraq.
The formation of a caliphate across the borders of already existing countries is essential to Isis ideology, and the terror group is the first in modern history to control its own state in such a way. Without a caliphate, Isis would find it significantly harder to call on recruits to join in its war against the rest of the world.The formation of a caliphate across the borders of already existing countries is essential to Isis ideology, and the terror group is the first in modern history to control its own state in such a way. Without a caliphate, Isis would find it significantly harder to call on recruits to join in its war against the rest of the world.
But the jihadis have suffered a string of territorial defeats this year in both Iraq and Syria – only on Sunday they lost the town of Dabiq to Syrian rebel fighters backed by Turkey. The loss of Mosul would be one of its greatest, because the city was acquired after beating the US-backed Iraqi army. It was from Mosul’s Great Mosque that Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a rare public speech in 2014 in which he declared himself the new global caliph and called on followers to “do jihad in the cause of God, incite the believers, and be patient in the face of this hardship.” But the jihadis have had a string of territorial defeats this year in both Iraq and Syria – only on Sunday they lost the town of Dabiq to Syrian rebel fighters backed by Turkey. The loss of Mosul would be one of its greatest, because the city was acquired after beating the US-backed Iraqi army. It was from Mosul’s Great Mosque that Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made a rare public speech in 2014 in which he declared himself the new global caliph and called on followers to “do jihad in the cause of God, incite the believers, and be patient in the face of this hardship”.
Losing Mosul would also make it easier for Isis’s opponents to recapture the group’s Syrian capital of Raqqa, because major supply routes from Iraq would be cut.Losing Mosul would also make it easier for Isis’s opponents to recapture the group’s Syrian capital of Raqqa, because major supply routes from Iraq would be cut.
For these reasons, the assault is expected to be a protracted and difficult one, with Isis thought to have between 5,000 and 8,000 fighters ready to defend Mosul. These fighters are hidden among a dwindling civilian population of approximately 600,000, most of whom are expected to flee as the battle intensifies.For these reasons, the assault is expected to be a protracted and difficult one, with Isis thought to have between 5,000 and 8,000 fighters ready to defend Mosul. These fighters are hidden among a dwindling civilian population of approximately 600,000, most of whom are expected to flee as the battle intensifies.
Isis have had months to prepare and will seek to use hit-and-run tactics, ambushes, snipers, bombs, berms and trenches to slow down the Iraqi forces.Isis have had months to prepare and will seek to use hit-and-run tactics, ambushes, snipers, bombs, berms and trenches to slow down the Iraqi forces.
Who is involved in the attack?Who is involved in the attack?
The offensive is a joint operation by more than 30,000 troops from the Iraqi army, Kurdish peshmerga and a Shia paramilitary force. Also on the ground are US, British and French special forces, which have been advising the peshmerga and will play a prominent role in calling in airstrikes against Isis targets inside the city.The offensive is a joint operation by more than 30,000 troops from the Iraqi army, Kurdish peshmerga and a Shia paramilitary force. Also on the ground are US, British and French special forces, which have been advising the peshmerga and will play a prominent role in calling in airstrikes against Isis targets inside the city.
The US has recently deployed an additional 600 troops to aid in the retaking of Mosul, bringing the total number of US personnel to more than 5,200, according to the Pentagon. The US said on Sunday night that it was proud to stand with its allies in the offensive, and in a statement, the defence secretary, Ash Carter, called it “a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver Isil [Isis] a lasting defeat”. The US has recently deployed an additional 600 troops to aid in the retaking of Mosul, bringing the total number of US military personnel in Iraq to more than 5,200, according to the Pentagon. The US said on Sunday night it was proud to stand with its allies in the offensive, and in a statement, the defence secretary, Ash Carter, called it “a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver Isil [Isis] a lasting defeat”.
He added: “The United States and the rest of the international coalition stand ready to support Iraqi security forces, peshmerga fighters and the people of Iraq in the difficult fight ahead. We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from Isil’s hatred and brutality.”He added: “The United States and the rest of the international coalition stand ready to support Iraqi security forces, peshmerga fighters and the people of Iraq in the difficult fight ahead. We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from Isil’s hatred and brutality.”
Godspeed to the heroic Iraqi forces, Kurdish #Peshmerga, and #Ninewa volunteers. We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation.Godspeed to the heroic Iraqi forces, Kurdish #Peshmerga, and #Ninewa volunteers. We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation.
How long is the offensive expected to take?How long is the offensive expected to take?
War planners expect the fight to last weeks, if not months. Kurdish forces predict stiff resistance from Isis, which has already lost the cities of Tikrit, Ramadi, Sinjar and Falluja and a vast area of land close to Erbil. War planners expect the fight to last weeks, if not months. Kurdish forces predict stiff resistance from Isis, which has already lost the cities of Tikrit, Ramadi, Sinjar and Falluja and a vast area of land close to Irbil.
Despite more than a year of US-led airstrikes, mortars continue to rain down on Kurdish forces. Isis is also believed to have placed thousands of improvised explosives in villages on the road to Mosul, which are likely to make the going slow.Despite more than a year of US-led airstrikes, mortars continue to rain down on Kurdish forces. Isis is also believed to have placed thousands of improvised explosives in villages on the road to Mosul, which are likely to make the going slow.
Isis has also used mustard gas against Kurdish forces – up to 19 times in the past two years. The militants thought responsible for the group’s chemical weapons programme are believed to have all been captured, or killed, but a risk remains of further attacks.Isis has also used mustard gas against Kurdish forces – up to 19 times in the past two years. The militants thought responsible for the group’s chemical weapons programme are believed to have all been captured, or killed, but a risk remains of further attacks.
What does the offensive mean for the people of Mosul?What does the offensive mean for the people of Mosul?
Militants have banned civilians from leaving Mosul, and have set up checkpoints on roads out and blown up the homes of those who do flee as punishment and to deter others. But while leaving can mean trekking through minefields, and the risk of discovery and punishment by Isis, those who stay know they face airstrikes, street battles, a potential siege by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the grim possibility of being used as human shields by Isis. Militants have banned civilians from leaving Mosul, and have set up checkpoints on roads out and blown up the homes of those who do flee as punishment and to deter others. But while leaving can mean trekking through minefields, and the risk of discovery and punishment by Isis, those who stay know they face airstrikes, street battles, a potential siege by the Iraqi security forces (ISF) and the grim possibility of being used as human shields by Isis.
Isis has used civilians for protection in other cities it lost control of in recent months, and militants have already moved into residential areas to try to blunt the impact of US airstrikes, which are now landing near ordinary homes. Those stuck in Mosul are digging makeshift bomb shelters, stockpiling food, and, as the battle draws closer, mostly staying at home to avoid bombs or provoking militants. Isis has used civilians for protection in other cities it lost control of in recent months, and militants have already moved into residential areas to try to blunt the impact of US airstrikes now landing near ordinary homes. Those stuck in Mosul are digging makeshift bomb shelters, stockpiling food, and, as the battle draws closer, mostly staying at home to avoid bombs or provoking militants.
The United Nations and other aid organisations warned that a huge number of civilians were in immediate danger as the operation got under way. “I am extremely concerned for the safety of up to 1.5 million people,” the UN deputy secretary general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief, Stephen O’Brien, said. “Depending on the intensity and scope of the fighting, as many as 1 million people may be forced to flee their homes in a worst-case scenario.” The United Nations and aid organisations warned that a huge number of civilians were in immediate danger as the operation got under way. “I am extremely concerned for the safety of up to 1.5 million people,” the UN deputy secretary general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief, Stephen O’Brien, said. “Depending on the intensity and scope of the fighting, as many as 1 million people may be forced to flee their homes in a worst-case scenario.”
Save the Children said the lives of more than half a million children “now hang in the balance”. The Norwegian Refugee Council said safe exits from Mosul must be provided or civilians “will be faced with the bleakest of choices: stay behind and risk their lives under attack, or risk their lives trying to flee”. Save the Children have said the lives of more than half a million children “now hang in the balance”. The Norwegian Refugee Council said safe exits from Mosul must be provided or civilians would be faced with the “bleakest of choices: stay behind and risk their lives under attack, or risk their lives trying to flee”.
One of the pressing questions is how to cater for what will potentially be the largest single refugee exodus at any point since mid-2014. The new wave of refugees is likely to be far more difficult to manage than the war itself, and authorities and aid agencies were desperately trying to finalise plans ahead of the attack. One of the pressing questions is how to cater for what will potentially be the largest single exodus of people at any point since mid-2014. The new wave of displace people is likely to be far more difficult to manage than the war itself, and authorities and aid agencies were desperately trying to finalise plans before the attack.
Why have sectarian concerns featured in the buildup to the fight?Why have sectarian concerns featured in the buildup to the fight?
Sectarian tensions remained high in the region throughout the post-Saddam years, and peaked before Isis swept into the city in 2014. As the terror group arrived, Iraqi forces who were mostly Shia and had alienated the local population, quickly surrendered the city. Restoring trust with Baghdad and re-establishing basic governance therefore loom as the biggest challenge of the post-Isis period. Sectarian tensions remained high in the region throughout the post-Saddam years, and peaked before Isis swept into Mosul in 2014. As the terror group arrived, Iraqi forces who were mostly Shia and had alienated the local population, quickly surrendered the city. Restoring trust with Baghdad and re-establishing basic governance therefore loom as the biggest challenge of the post-Isis period.
Iraq’s central government remains weak and has little influence in Sunni areas of the country. The US, which maintained a presence in Mosul until 2010, no longer has an occupying presence in Iraq. Obama has made clear that the 6,000 troops his administration has re-deployed are there only to fight Isis and not to provide military muscle in support of a diplomatic push to hold the country together. Iraq’s central government remains weak and has little influence in Sunni areas of the country. The US, which maintained a presence in Mosul until 2010, no longer has an occupying presence in Iraq. Barack Obama has made clear that the 6,000 troops his administration has redeployed are there only to fight Isis and not to provide military muscle in support of a diplomatic push to hold the country together.
As for the offensive, Shia militias and Kurdish peshmerga forces who have played vital roles in the war against Isis are not slated to enter the largely Sunni Muslim Mosul. The Iraqi military, which is largely made up of Shia soldiers and officers, will take the lead in the battle. As for the offensive, Shia militias and Kurdish peshmerga forces which have played vital roles in the war against Isis are not slated to enter the largely Sunni Mosul. The Iraqi military, which is largely made up of Shia soldiers and officers, will take the lead in the battle.
Iraq’s counter-terrorism forces, which performed well in the four-week battle to retake Falluja in June, are expected to lead the fight. Peshmerga units are planning to take up blocking positions to the north and east, where they will also receive and screen refugees. The popular mobilisation units, known in Iraq as Hashd al-Shabi, have been confined to a blocking role to the west of Mosul. Iraq’s counter-terrorism forces, which performed well in the four-week battle to retake Falluja in June, are expected to lead the fight. Peshmerga units are planning to take up blocking positions to the north and east, where they will also receive and screen fleeing civilians. The popular mobilisation units, known in Iraq as Hashd al-Sha’bi, have been confined to a blocking role to the west of Mosul.
An Iraqi intelligence official said: “There is an agreement about the structure, and the order in which [forces] come in. This is the last battle in Iraq and everyone wants to be included. It was a wise move to let the Shia militia be involved but in designated areas, and under control. I don’t think after two years fighting Isis you can keep out the Shia in the last battle of Iraq.An Iraqi intelligence official said: “There is an agreement about the structure, and the order in which [forces] come in. This is the last battle in Iraq and everyone wants to be included. It was a wise move to let the Shia militia be involved but in designated areas, and under control. I don’t think after two years fighting Isis you can keep out the Shia in the last battle of Iraq.
“If we cannot reassure Sunnis they will fight to the death. There are small elements trying to assassinate [Isis], and trying to make them feel uncomfortable, but it largely depends on the tribes. We are trying to tell the Sunnis inside this is coming, and people reaching out to them and saying they have a second chance.”“If we cannot reassure Sunnis they will fight to the death. There are small elements trying to assassinate [Isis], and trying to make them feel uncomfortable, but it largely depends on the tribes. We are trying to tell the Sunnis inside this is coming, and people reaching out to them and saying they have a second chance.”