Will Brexit bring Ireland and Northern Ireland closer together?
|
Version 0 of 1. How do Irish and Northern Irish people feel about themselves, and each other, after the Brexit vote? In the tangle of questions arising from the EU referendum, some of the most knotty relate to the new relationship the UK must forge with Ireland over immigration, customs and borders. But with Northern Ireland – where a majority of people want to stay part of the UK – voting by a clear 12-point margin to remain in the EU, has Brexit also reopened the question of a united Ireland? After the 23 June poll, both Enda Kenny, the Irish taoiseach, and Martin McGuinness, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister, called for a referendum on the Irish border. The Guardian asked readers in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland for their reactions. For some, the referendum result was so significant that it has changed their own feelings about a potential united Ireland. Sean, a Green party supporter from Belfast, said that as a nationalist with Irish citizenship living north of the border, he had nonetheless always been content with the status quo, with Northern Ireland part of the UK. But the 2015 general election swayed him towards supporting a united Ireland. He said: “The referendum result cemented that. My reasoning being, Great Britain doesn’t care about us, doesn’t want us, and if we are going to get screwed, I’d rather get screwed from Dublin.” One Belfast-based remain voter, Peter, a supporter of the cross-community Alliance party, said that on the day of the referendum he “went to bed a small ‘u’ unionist and woke up a small ‘n’ nationalist”. “The EU is something that tries to bring us together,” he said. “And if it takes me being Irish rather than British to be part of that, then I really don’t care.” A border poll should be held, he said, “if and when Brexit is effected by the UK government and we know what it means to the citizens of Northern Ireland”. Anthony Stafford, also from Belfast, described himself as a nationalist allied most closely with Sinn Féin. And yet, he said, before the referendum, “I would have considered myself a unionist with the UK firmly in the EU. After the referendum I would no longer classify myself as unionist, and would seek a united Ireland.” Northern Ireland, he said, “has benefited most from the EU system, and it is disgraceful we’re being dragged out of it”. Others, however, including Olli Thomson, an Ulster Unionist party supporter and leave voter from Northern Ireland who is currently based in Manila, felt the referendum was unlikely to change most people’s positions. “The driving force behind the vote to remain was economic,” he said. “Specifically the perception that Northern Ireland has done well out of the EU. Were the option of a border poll on the agenda, the driving force behind that vote would be the same.” Given Ireland’s post-2008 financial turbulence, he said, “I suspect there would be a much greater majority in favour of retaining the current arrangements”. “There is absolutely no evidence that those from a unionist background support reunification,” agreed Robert Osborne, a remain voter and Alliance supporter who lives in Belfast. “If Brexit is an incredibly difficult process, imagine what merging two parts of the island would involve [after] separation for 100 years.” “People who voted to stay in the EU are not going to change their nationality because of Brexit,” said Mark, an Ulster Unionist party voter and remain supporter from Bangor, County Down. “I know lots of people who voted remain, and none of them would vote for a united Ireland. Apart from the nationality aspect, it doesn’t make financial sense. Britain outside the EU is still going to be a better place to live financially than Ireland.” The Guardian’s survey illustrated one fact frequently overlooked about Ireland, north and south: people’s views on sovereignty do not always conform to preconceptions. Joan, from Dublin, said: “I think people fail to understand that the Irish Republic does not actually want Northern Ireland any more. Ireland has changed greatly, more than the north, and the central issue is ... ‘the economy, stupid’. On the one hand, the south can’t afford the north, on the other the north does not want to be treated as Ireland was [during the bailout]. These factors have not changed with Brexit.” Fiona Clare, a fellow Dubliner, agreed. “The real question, the one that is rarely asked, is whether those of us in the republic would wish for reunification,” she said. “I would not, either on economic or security grounds. I don’t know anyone within my family, friends, colleagues or general acquaintance who do. Whenever it is mentioned it is roundly scoffed at and considered to be a mad plan by both young and old.” Some welcomed the idea of a poll, even though most felt there was no appetite for it in either country. “It would allow people to have their say once and for all,” said Carol Ann, a remain voter and Alliance supporter from Belfast. “We’ve always said we would abide by the will of the people, so I think it might not be a bad thing to see what that actually means.” In practical terms, however, “my friends and I, from both sides of the political divide, tend to feel that unification is really not financially viable”. Many others made the point that given recent history, a poll on the island’s border is the last thing Northern Ireland needs. As part of the 1998 Good Friday agreement, the Irish Republic dropped its historic territorial claim over the six counties that make up Northern Ireland. The overwhelming votes to accept the agreement in separate referendums north and south of the border was seen as having effectively settled the question of unification, for the foreseeable future at least. In the context of a still fragile peace, many dread poking that particular hornet’s nest again. To Brian from Sligo, talk of a united Ireland in the near future is “naive and dangerous”. He said: “People forget how horrible the Troubles were and that was only 20 years ago. It took years of difficult negotiations to attain the peace we have today. That could very easily fall apart if there was to be a referendum on a united Ireland. “Getting people to debate national identity in a small place where there were Troubles up until the recent past could be a dangerous thing.” Osborne said: “It is quite clear that a border poll will only be held if there is a decisive shift in public opinion in both parts of the island. The reality at the moment is that those seeking a united Ireland are failing to convince most of the nationalist/Catholic population in Northern Ireland that it is a practical prospect. A push towards a poll would create real disturbance in the political settlement here and for no practical gain.” It was, he concluded, “an idea whose time has not come”. Some names have been changed |