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Brexit united Tory and Labour losers. Now all they need is a battle plan Brexit united Tory and Labour losers. Now all they need is a battle plan
(about 17 hours later)
The choice of new MP for the Oxfordshire seat of Witney in a byelection on Thursday wipes one of the last traces of David Cameron from the surface of British politics. The Conservative candidate will win. Polite tribute will be paid to his predecessor, whose portrait will be quietly taken down. With stunning speed, the man who led the Tories for a decade has become just somebody that they used to know.The choice of new MP for the Oxfordshire seat of Witney in a byelection on Thursday wipes one of the last traces of David Cameron from the surface of British politics. The Conservative candidate will win. Polite tribute will be paid to his predecessor, whose portrait will be quietly taken down. With stunning speed, the man who led the Tories for a decade has become just somebody that they used to know.
Perversely Ukip, which played a significant role in the former prime minister’s political demise, looks bereft, suffering the loss of a treasured enemy. Nigel Farage’s career tracked the rise and fall of the Notting Hill brand of liberal Conservatism that was espoused (but not always practised) by Cameron’s ruling clique.Perversely Ukip, which played a significant role in the former prime minister’s political demise, looks bereft, suffering the loss of a treasured enemy. Nigel Farage’s career tracked the rise and fall of the Notting Hill brand of liberal Conservatism that was espoused (but not always practised) by Cameron’s ruling clique.
It was Cameron who dismissed the Kipper tendency in his own ranks as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, who amplified public anxiety about immigration without identifying a solution, who acquiesced to demands for an EU referendum and then botched the campaign. He fed Ukip as much culture-war grievance as it could swallow, then unwittingly cooked up a Brexit pudding so rich that the party struggles to digest its own victory.It was Cameron who dismissed the Kipper tendency in his own ranks as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, who amplified public anxiety about immigration without identifying a solution, who acquiesced to demands for an EU referendum and then botched the campaign. He fed Ukip as much culture-war grievance as it could swallow, then unwittingly cooked up a Brexit pudding so rich that the party struggles to digest its own victory.
Ukip is now in a “death spiral”, according to Stephen Woolfe, the immigration spokesman who earlier this week resigned from his party. He may be right; he may have spoken prematurely. For a party in total disarray, Ukip’s poll rating is holding up pretty well.Ukip is now in a “death spiral”, according to Stephen Woolfe, the immigration spokesman who earlier this week resigned from his party. He may be right; he may have spoken prematurely. For a party in total disarray, Ukip’s poll rating is holding up pretty well.
But it does feel as if Farage’s reactionary parade and Cameron’s Tory “modernisation” project were bound in political symbiosis, each defined by the opposing force. The decline of one diminishes the other.But it does feel as if Farage’s reactionary parade and Cameron’s Tory “modernisation” project were bound in political symbiosis, each defined by the opposing force. The decline of one diminishes the other.
In that sense, Ukip’s rolling leadership crisis is the extra-parliamentary twin to the malaise afflicting the rump of pro-European Tories inside the Commons. Cameron-era liberals and Faragist reactionaries are both stumbling around the same strange new landscape, their familiar landmarks cast into darkness by the sudden all-eclipsing rise of Theresa May: a prime minster committed to Brexit but maddeningly inscrutable when it comes to the terms.In that sense, Ukip’s rolling leadership crisis is the extra-parliamentary twin to the malaise afflicting the rump of pro-European Tories inside the Commons. Cameron-era liberals and Faragist reactionaries are both stumbling around the same strange new landscape, their familiar landmarks cast into darkness by the sudden all-eclipsing rise of Theresa May: a prime minster committed to Brexit but maddeningly inscrutable when it comes to the terms.
It cannot be said that the Conservative remainers are entirely vanquished, but they are disoriented and leaderless. So it is not surprising that they are finding a degree of fellowship with refugee MPs of a New Labour disposition who are benighted in a haze of their own. They were not strangers. Some hatchets were buried on the campaign trail in pursuit of a remain vote. But now there is an emerging sympathy in shared alienation, as each side sees its party captured by an agenda hatched on their respective fringes.It cannot be said that the Conservative remainers are entirely vanquished, but they are disoriented and leaderless. So it is not surprising that they are finding a degree of fellowship with refugee MPs of a New Labour disposition who are benighted in a haze of their own. They were not strangers. Some hatchets were buried on the campaign trail in pursuit of a remain vote. But now there is an emerging sympathy in shared alienation, as each side sees its party captured by an agenda hatched on their respective fringes.
The Commons tearooms have always hosted cross-party friendships, but they tend to stay hidden behind the wall of tribal antagonism that MPs display to the public. After Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership election victory last year, Tory MPs encountered new candour in Labour counterparts feeling besieged by a radical left movement that targeted them as fifth columnists. Conversations that used to dwell on parliamentary gossip turned into something more like political trauma counselling.The Commons tearooms have always hosted cross-party friendships, but they tend to stay hidden behind the wall of tribal antagonism that MPs display to the public. After Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership election victory last year, Tory MPs encountered new candour in Labour counterparts feeling besieged by a radical left movement that targeted them as fifth columnists. Conversations that used to dwell on parliamentary gossip turned into something more like political trauma counselling.
Then came the referendum, and the horror that some Tory liberals felt watching Eurosceptic colleagues cast off the robes of moderation and economic prudence to splash around in murky pools of xenophobic populism. The experience of fighting a campaign with most of Fleet Street lined up on the other side also gave pro-EU Conservatives a salutary taste of what it feels like to have reasonable arguments incinerated in flames of hysterical press partisanship (a familiar sensation on the left). A common purpose in rehabilitating evidence-based centrism was born.Then came the referendum, and the horror that some Tory liberals felt watching Eurosceptic colleagues cast off the robes of moderation and economic prudence to splash around in murky pools of xenophobic populism. The experience of fighting a campaign with most of Fleet Street lined up on the other side also gave pro-EU Conservatives a salutary taste of what it feels like to have reasonable arguments incinerated in flames of hysterical press partisanship (a familiar sensation on the left). A common purpose in rehabilitating evidence-based centrism was born.
There is a Commons majority for a softer style of Brexit, but any alliance to check the hardliners is in its infancyThere is a Commons majority for a softer style of Brexit, but any alliance to check the hardliners is in its infancy
That is how the government was forced last week to accept a Labour motion demanding that parliament debate the terms of exit from the EU. There was no back-channel plot. Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary, launched a tentative foray and found a platoon of eager Tories at his side. The Conservative whips defused the situation with a face-saving amendment asserting that the referendum mandate must be respected.That is how the government was forced last week to accept a Labour motion demanding that parliament debate the terms of exit from the EU. There was no back-channel plot. Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary, launched a tentative foray and found a platoon of eager Tories at his side. The Conservative whips defused the situation with a face-saving amendment asserting that the referendum mandate must be respected.
The Tory rebellion was partly a spontaneous reaction against the mood at the party’s conference the previous week, where “hard” Brexiteers had set the tone. It felt, according to one former minister, “as if the party was high on amphetamines” in Birmingham, speeding towards disaster, and needed to come down to earth.The Tory rebellion was partly a spontaneous reaction against the mood at the party’s conference the previous week, where “hard” Brexiteers had set the tone. It felt, according to one former minister, “as if the party was high on amphetamines” in Birmingham, speeding towards disaster, and needed to come down to earth.
That alarm blended with simmering resentment at the way allies of Cameron and George Osborne were culled and their legacy trashed in the first days of May’s reign. Downing Street pulled its punches in the referendum campaign, vetoing personal attacks on Brexit-backing ministers in the hope of facilitating post-combat reconciliation. But the leavers observed no such Geneva conventions. Despite May’s own notional remainer allegiance, the new era started with executions of the deposed king’s officers. That massacre has not been forgotten.That alarm blended with simmering resentment at the way allies of Cameron and George Osborne were culled and their legacy trashed in the first days of May’s reign. Downing Street pulled its punches in the referendum campaign, vetoing personal attacks on Brexit-backing ministers in the hope of facilitating post-combat reconciliation. But the leavers observed no such Geneva conventions. Despite May’s own notional remainer allegiance, the new era started with executions of the deposed king’s officers. That massacre has not been forgotten.
There is a Commons majority for a softer style of Brexit, but any alliance to check the hardliners is in its fragile infancy. The referendum result is an irrefutable rebuke to the remainers. They lost the vote. They lost the argument.There is a Commons majority for a softer style of Brexit, but any alliance to check the hardliners is in its fragile infancy. The referendum result is an irrefutable rebuke to the remainers. They lost the vote. They lost the argument.
The fact that Tory and Labour moderates have also lost influence in their parties gives cause for common despair. But there is no obvious mechanism for turning the sympathy they feel for each other into a political renaissance in the country. Throw in all the Lib Dems and you still have a coalition of losers. Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband made impressive, forensically argued speeches in last week’s debate. But they are commentators, not commanders.The fact that Tory and Labour moderates have also lost influence in their parties gives cause for common despair. But there is no obvious mechanism for turning the sympathy they feel for each other into a political renaissance in the country. Throw in all the Lib Dems and you still have a coalition of losers. Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband made impressive, forensically argued speeches in last week’s debate. But they are commentators, not commanders.
It is hard to dispel the pall of decline over the once-mighty liberal centre that cratered when Cameron fell. Its despondent champions wear the faded colours of an ancien regime. They may still claim to represent tens of millions of voters, but they don’t know how to organise their people, nor are they clear about what they are organising around. They see terrible social and economic turbulence ahead if Britain crashes chaotically out of Europe. They fear for the future, and with good reason. But it is hard to win a battle over tomorrow still dressed in mourning for yesterday.It is hard to dispel the pall of decline over the once-mighty liberal centre that cratered when Cameron fell. Its despondent champions wear the faded colours of an ancien regime. They may still claim to represent tens of millions of voters, but they don’t know how to organise their people, nor are they clear about what they are organising around. They see terrible social and economic turbulence ahead if Britain crashes chaotically out of Europe. They fear for the future, and with good reason. But it is hard to win a battle over tomorrow still dressed in mourning for yesterday.
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