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Obama Assists 150 State Candidates, Targeting G.O.P.’s Grip on Legislatures Obama Assists 150 State Candidates, Targeting G.O.P.’s Grip on Legislatures
(about 9 hours later)
FARIBAULT, Minn. — For half a dozen years, Republicans have swept into statehouses across the nation, winning more legislative chambers than at any time in history and pushing states to the right on issues such as abortion, voting rights, labor unions and gender identity.FARIBAULT, Minn. — For half a dozen years, Republicans have swept into statehouses across the nation, winning more legislative chambers than at any time in history and pushing states to the right on issues such as abortion, voting rights, labor unions and gender identity.
But with Donald J. Trump’s stumbles raising alarms for Republicans down the ballot, Democrats hope that a resounding win at the presidential level will translate to significant gains in capitals in Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and beyond. President Obama, who has endured gridlock in Washington as Republicans in the states took direct aim at his vision and legacy, is stepping in to assist more than 150 state legislative candidates, by far his biggest effort to bolster local Democrats since he took office.But with Donald J. Trump’s stumbles raising alarms for Republicans down the ballot, Democrats hope that a resounding win at the presidential level will translate to significant gains in capitals in Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and beyond. President Obama, who has endured gridlock in Washington as Republicans in the states took direct aim at his vision and legacy, is stepping in to assist more than 150 state legislative candidates, by far his biggest effort to bolster local Democrats since he took office.
“You are going to see a level of engagement down to the state representative level that I don’t think you’ve seen too many presidents engage in,” said David Simas, the White House political director. “You are going to see a level of engagement down to the state representative level that I don’t think you’ve seen too many presidents engage in,” said David Simas, the director of the White House’s Office of Political Strategy and Outreach.
Still, Democrats have a long way to go. Republicans effectively control 68 of the nation’s 99 statehouse chambers, compared with 36 at the start of 2010. For years, Democrats complained that Mr. Obama and his political operation paid too little attention to the health of the party, and during his tenure, more than 800 Democratic state lawmakers have been voted out of office, among the worst losses for the party under any president in more than 100 years.Still, Democrats have a long way to go. Republicans effectively control 68 of the nation’s 99 statehouse chambers, compared with 36 at the start of 2010. For years, Democrats complained that Mr. Obama and his political operation paid too little attention to the health of the party, and during his tenure, more than 800 Democratic state lawmakers have been voted out of office, among the worst losses for the party under any president in more than 100 years.
Republicans control at least 22 capitals entirely, holding governors’ offices as well as legislatures. Seven years ago, they had complete control of nine.Republicans control at least 22 capitals entirely, holding governors’ offices as well as legislatures. Seven years ago, they had complete control of nine.
Matt Walter, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, acknowledged that his party was facing a challenge. “When you’re at an all-time-high number in the legislatures, naturally you have a lot more ground to defend,” he said.Matt Walter, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, acknowledged that his party was facing a challenge. “When you’re at an all-time-high number in the legislatures, naturally you have a lot more ground to defend,” he said.
The volatile state of the presidential election has also muddied predictions about who will go to the polls on Nov. 8 and what that will mean for races to elect more than 5,900 state lawmakers and 12 governors.The volatile state of the presidential election has also muddied predictions about who will go to the polls on Nov. 8 and what that will mean for races to elect more than 5,900 state lawmakers and 12 governors.
“This is an opportunity year for the Democrats, and that’s more true now than it was two weeks ago,” said Tim Storey, an elections expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures who tracks state legislative contests. “But the question mark is turnout. The presidential race has made it really hard to know what’s going to get people to the polls or what’s going to keep them away.”“This is an opportunity year for the Democrats, and that’s more true now than it was two weeks ago,” said Tim Storey, an elections expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures who tracks state legislative contests. “But the question mark is turnout. The presidential race has made it really hard to know what’s going to get people to the polls or what’s going to keep them away.”
Here in Faribault, an hour south of the Twin Cities, Patti Fritz, a Democrat, has seen the puzzle over turnout up close. Ms. Fritz, whose effort to win back a seat in the Minnesota House of Representatives could help her party retake full control of the capital, recalled meeting a woman at a grocery store who said she was so disillusioned by the presidential election that she was considering not voting. Maybe she would vote for Jesus, she said.Here in Faribault, an hour south of the Twin Cities, Patti Fritz, a Democrat, has seen the puzzle over turnout up close. Ms. Fritz, whose effort to win back a seat in the Minnesota House of Representatives could help her party retake full control of the capital, recalled meeting a woman at a grocery store who said she was so disillusioned by the presidential election that she was considering not voting. Maybe she would vote for Jesus, she said.
“Well, write him in for president,” Ms. Fritz said she urged the woman, “and then go down further and vote for me.”“Well, write him in for president,” Ms. Fritz said she urged the woman, “and then go down further and vote for me.”
Democrats hope Mr. Obama’s involvement, which began in earnest last week, broadens their chances. Dozens of candidates for state posts were getting word of the support only last week. In Minnesota, Mr. Obama is backing Jamie Becker-Finn in her campaign for a different State House seat. José Javier Rodríguez, a state representative in Florida, hopes Mr. Obama can help him move to the State Senate. And in Georgia, Mr. Obama recorded an automated telephone call to support keeping Kimberly Alexander in the State House seat she won in 2012.Democrats hope Mr. Obama’s involvement, which began in earnest last week, broadens their chances. Dozens of candidates for state posts were getting word of the support only last week. In Minnesota, Mr. Obama is backing Jamie Becker-Finn in her campaign for a different State House seat. José Javier Rodríguez, a state representative in Florida, hopes Mr. Obama can help him move to the State Senate. And in Georgia, Mr. Obama recorded an automated telephone call to support keeping Kimberly Alexander in the State House seat she won in 2012.
“This is Barack Obama, urging you to get to the polls to vote for the candidate who has my back, and yours: Kimberly Alexander,” he says in the call. “Thanks. Go vote!”“This is Barack Obama, urging you to get to the polls to vote for the candidate who has my back, and yours: Kimberly Alexander,” he says in the call. “Thanks. Go vote!”
Mr. Simas, the White House political director, said Mr. Obama was motivated in part by a deepening frustration with conservative legislation passed in statehouses. In North Carolina, lawmakers restricted bathroom use by transgender people. Republican-led states across the country have passed hundreds of restrictive abortion laws. Many Republican-led legislatures have sought to toughen voter identification laws. And the Republicans’ sweep into power has led to redrawn political maps, often creating tougher challenges for Democrats. Mr. Simas, the White House political strategy director, said Mr. Obama was motivated in part by a deepening frustration with conservative legislation passed in statehouses. In North Carolina, lawmakers restricted bathroom use by transgender people. Republican-led states across the country have passed hundreds of restrictive abortion laws. Many Republican-led legislatures have sought to toughen voter identification laws. And the Republicans’ sweep into power has led to redrawn political maps, often creating tougher challenges for Democrats.
Even after Mr. Obama leaves the White House, officials said, he will lend support to Eric H. Holder Jr., his former attorney general, who is leading a new group aimed at helping Democrats win redistricting fights in 2020. Democrats hope to avoid a repeat of 2010, when Republicans’ control of legislatures put them in a position to reshape districts in their favor for a decade.Even after Mr. Obama leaves the White House, officials said, he will lend support to Eric H. Holder Jr., his former attorney general, who is leading a new group aimed at helping Democrats win redistricting fights in 2020. Democrats hope to avoid a repeat of 2010, when Republicans’ control of legislatures put them in a position to reshape districts in their favor for a decade.
In addition to statehouses, a surprisingly large number of governors’ races — as many as seven — are seen as up for grabs, including some that could alter control of capitals. If John Gregg, a Democrat, wins a tight race to replace Mike Pence as governor of Indiana, that state’s Republican-controlled Legislature will face roadblocks to its agenda. The same will be true in North Carolina if Attorney General Roy Cooper, another Democrat, wins.In addition to statehouses, a surprisingly large number of governors’ races — as many as seven — are seen as up for grabs, including some that could alter control of capitals. If John Gregg, a Democrat, wins a tight race to replace Mike Pence as governor of Indiana, that state’s Republican-controlled Legislature will face roadblocks to its agenda. The same will be true in North Carolina if Attorney General Roy Cooper, another Democrat, wins.
In Missouri, a victory for Eric Greitens, the Republican nominee for governor, would end divided rule in Jefferson City, potentially easing Republican lawmakers’ efforts to pass measures such as “right to work” legislation. If Phil Scott, a Republican, becomes governor of Vermont, Democrats will no longer have total control of Montpelier and will most likely be derailed in their push for paid family leave and renewable energy development.In Missouri, a victory for Eric Greitens, the Republican nominee for governor, would end divided rule in Jefferson City, potentially easing Republican lawmakers’ efforts to pass measures such as “right to work” legislation. If Phil Scott, a Republican, becomes governor of Vermont, Democrats will no longer have total control of Montpelier and will most likely be derailed in their push for paid family leave and renewable energy development.
But the far larger number of state legislative contests could have a broader effect. At least 20 chambers are seen as highly competitive in the election, and a majority of those are now controlled by Republicans. Democrats are setting their sights on chambers not only in Minnesota but also in states like Maine, New Mexico and New York. Republicans hope to hold control and extend their reach in places like Iowa, Kentucky and Washington.But the far larger number of state legislative contests could have a broader effect. At least 20 chambers are seen as highly competitive in the election, and a majority of those are now controlled by Republicans. Democrats are setting their sights on chambers not only in Minnesota but also in states like Maine, New Mexico and New York. Republicans hope to hold control and extend their reach in places like Iowa, Kentucky and Washington.
Such races are often decided by a few hundred votes or fewer, so turnout is essential — and, this year, a muddle. Democrats say their state candidates will benefit if Republicans appalled by Mr. Trump stay home. Republicans, though, say Mr. Trump’s core supporters are more motivated to vote than others, particularly given negative views of Hillary Clinton. Such races are often decided by a few hundred votes or fewer, so turnout is essential — and, this year, a muddle. Democrats say their state candidates will benefit if Republicans appalled by Mr. Trump stay home. Republicans, though, say his core supporters are more motivated to vote than others, particularly given negative views of Hillary Clinton.
“In a lot of our areas where we are going on offense, he is extremely popular and Hillary Clinton is extremely unpopular,” said Jonathan Shell, a state representative from Kentucky, where Republicans have not held a majority in the House since the 1920s. Mr. Shell, a farmer who has worked to recruit Republican candidates, believes frustration over lost coal mining jobs and enthusiasm for Mr. Trump may finally help change that.“In a lot of our areas where we are going on offense, he is extremely popular and Hillary Clinton is extremely unpopular,” said Jonathan Shell, a state representative from Kentucky, where Republicans have not held a majority in the House since the 1920s. Mr. Shell, a farmer who has worked to recruit Republican candidates, believes frustration over lost coal mining jobs and enthusiasm for Mr. Trump may finally help change that.
Democrats anticipate a different Trump effect. They have begun demanding that Republican opponents take stances on Mr. Trump and address his lewd remarks about women and allegations that he sexually assaulted women.Democrats anticipate a different Trump effect. They have begun demanding that Republican opponents take stances on Mr. Trump and address his lewd remarks about women and allegations that he sexually assaulted women.
“Do these Republicans step away from him and hold on to their socially conservative base, or do they double down on Trump and stay with him?” said Jessica Post, the executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.“Do these Republicans step away from him and hold on to their socially conservative base, or do they double down on Trump and stay with him?” said Jessica Post, the executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
The pressure is intensifying for them to make a decision. In some legislative districts, voters are getting recorded phone calls insisting that local Republicans must either reject Mr. Trump or be considered in support of him. In Washington State, where Republicans need two additional seats to win control of the House, Lynnette Vehrs issued a blunt question to her Republican opponent: “Do you condone the words and actions of Donald Trump, and how can you continue to stand by him?” The pressure is intensifying for them to make a decision. In some districts, voters are getting recorded phone calls insisting that local Republicans must either reject Mr. Trump or be considered in support of him. In Washington State, where Republicans need two additional seats to win control of the House, Lynnette Vehrs issued a blunt question to her Republican opponent: “Do you condone the words and actions of Donald Trump, and how can you continue to stand by him?”
Risks for Republicans, even at the bottom of the ticket, are clear: Alienate Mr. Trump’s voters or alienate those perturbed by his behavior. “At this point, you really are trying to run out the clock,” said David Flaherty, a Republican pollster and the chief executive of Magellan Strategies, based in Colorado, where Republicans are trying to hold or expand a one-seat majority in the Senate. “You’re damned if you do, and you’re damned if you don’t.”Risks for Republicans, even at the bottom of the ticket, are clear: Alienate Mr. Trump’s voters or alienate those perturbed by his behavior. “At this point, you really are trying to run out the clock,” said David Flaherty, a Republican pollster and the chief executive of Magellan Strategies, based in Colorado, where Republicans are trying to hold or expand a one-seat majority in the Senate. “You’re damned if you do, and you’re damned if you don’t.”
With control of the Minnesota House at stake, radio ads are nearly constant in Faribault. Politicians from far-flung districts drive in to help. And Ms. Fritz, who faces a rematch with Brian Daniels, the Republican who defeated her two years ago by 221 votes, is calling on volunteers from this small city’s growing Somali and Hispanic populations to knock on doors.With control of the Minnesota House at stake, radio ads are nearly constant in Faribault. Politicians from far-flung districts drive in to help. And Ms. Fritz, who faces a rematch with Brian Daniels, the Republican who defeated her two years ago by 221 votes, is calling on volunteers from this small city’s growing Somali and Hispanic populations to knock on doors.
This month, Mr. Daniels explained his feelings about Mr. Trump this way: “He wasn’t one of my first dozen choices, but what gives me hope is he picked a really good vice-presidential candidate.”This month, Mr. Daniels explained his feelings about Mr. Trump this way: “He wasn’t one of my first dozen choices, but what gives me hope is he picked a really good vice-presidential candidate.”
In a bitter wind, Mr. Daniels drove a golf cart around a subdivision to talk to voters. At one door, he spoke of his time in office — two years when a newly Republican-held State House at times blocked Democrats, who control the rest of the capital, from rushing ideas through. He told the resident that his colleagues had slowed state spending increases. He said they had prevented a gas tax increase.In a bitter wind, Mr. Daniels drove a golf cart around a subdivision to talk to voters. At one door, he spoke of his time in office — two years when a newly Republican-held State House at times blocked Democrats, who control the rest of the capital, from rushing ideas through. He told the resident that his colleagues had slowed state spending increases. He said they had prevented a gas tax increase.
He did not mention Mr. Trump.He did not mention Mr. Trump.