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Diabetes: Tenth of adults at risk of disease by 2035 | Diabetes: Tenth of adults at risk of disease by 2035 |
(35 minutes later) | |
Health experts are warning that one in 10 adults in the UK will be at risk of developing diabetes by 2035. | Health experts are warning that one in 10 adults in the UK will be at risk of developing diabetes by 2035. |
For the first time, Public Health England forecasts the number of people with the disease could top five million if obesity rates continue to increase. | For the first time, Public Health England forecasts the number of people with the disease could top five million if obesity rates continue to increase. |
About 90% of patients have type 2 diabetes, which is linked to being overweight. | About 90% of patients have type 2 diabetes, which is linked to being overweight. |
A separate analysis says the cost of treating the UK's "diabetes epidemic" could soar to 17% of the NHS budget. | A separate analysis says the cost of treating the UK's "diabetes epidemic" could soar to 17% of the NHS budget. |
Experts are warning the burden of treating diabetes, especially new cases of type 2, could bankrupt the NHS. | Experts are warning the burden of treating diabetes, especially new cases of type 2, could bankrupt the NHS. |
Statisticians at Public Health England have published a new forecast for the number of people who will develop diabetes in the coming years. | Statisticians at Public Health England have published a new forecast for the number of people who will develop diabetes in the coming years. |
Their analysis includes type one, which is an auto-immune disease and accounts for about 10% of cases in the UK. | Their analysis includes type one, which is an auto-immune disease and accounts for about 10% of cases in the UK. |
But the remaining 90% have type 2, which can be affected by where you come from and your family history, but in most cases is associated with being overweight. | But the remaining 90% have type 2, which can be affected by where you come from and your family history, but in most cases is associated with being overweight. |
In 2015, there were around 3.8 million people living with diabetes in England alone. | In 2015, there were around 3.8 million people living with diabetes in England alone. |
If obesity rates remain stable, Public Health England predicts that by 2035 that figure could have leapt to 4.9 million. | If obesity rates remain stable, Public Health England predicts that by 2035 that figure could have leapt to 4.9 million. |
But if obesity rates increase by 3% every five years, an extra 263,000 people will have developed diabetes by 2035, putting the overall figure at more than five million. | But if obesity rates increase by 3% every five years, an extra 263,000 people will have developed diabetes by 2035, putting the overall figure at more than five million. |
Chris Askew, chief executive of Diabetes UK, says there are clear implications of what he calls a "diabetes epidemic". | Chris Askew, chief executive of Diabetes UK, says there are clear implications of what he calls a "diabetes epidemic". |
"As things stand we are certainly looking at a crisis in diabetes which threatens to bankrupt the NHS if we continue with these current trends. | "As things stand we are certainly looking at a crisis in diabetes which threatens to bankrupt the NHS if we continue with these current trends. |
"I believe we're facing a crisis and we really need concerted action right across society for us to fund more research, provide best possible care and crucially prevent so many cases of type 2 in the future." | "I believe we're facing a crisis and we really need concerted action right across society for us to fund more research, provide best possible care and crucially prevent so many cases of type 2 in the future." |
At the same time, an analysis of the costs of treating complications associated with diabetes shows how they could spiral out of control. | At the same time, an analysis of the costs of treating complications associated with diabetes shows how they could spiral out of control. |
The York Health Economics Consortium says that across the UK, the NHS currently spends about 10% of its entire budget on diabetic care. | The York Health Economics Consortium says that across the UK, the NHS currently spends about 10% of its entire budget on diabetic care. |
But researchers predict that figure could rise to 17% if rates continue to grow. | But researchers predict that figure could rise to 17% if rates continue to grow. |
Nick Hex is the economist who calculated the new figures. | Nick Hex is the economist who calculated the new figures. |
"There is a fixed amount of money for the NHS so clearly if one disease area like diabetes is taking up more, a considerable amount of that cost, then there is less money to spend on cancer. | "There is a fixed amount of money for the NHS so clearly if one disease area like diabetes is taking up more, a considerable amount of that cost, then there is less money to spend on cancer. |
"So it's really important policymakers think about ways costs can be mitigated over next few years because there won't be enough to go round." | "So it's really important policymakers think about ways costs can be mitigated over next few years because there won't be enough to go round." |
Those comments are echoed by Professor Jonathan Valabhji, the national clinical director for obesity and diabetes for NHS England. | Those comments are echoed by Professor Jonathan Valabhji, the national clinical director for obesity and diabetes for NHS England. |
"We need to stem the tide, otherwise we could see crisis and there are issues of sustainability for the NHS if we do nothing differently." | "We need to stem the tide, otherwise we could see crisis and there are issues of sustainability for the NHS if we do nothing differently." |
Type 2 Diabetes | |
Diabetes is a condition that causes a person's blood sugar to become too high. | Diabetes is a condition that causes a person's blood sugar to become too high. |