This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/24/brexit-harry-truman-trump-polls-election

The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Brexit, Harry Truman, a late October surprise: Trump is running out of options Brexit, Harry Truman, a late October surprise: Trump is running out of options Brexit, Harry Truman, a late October surprise: Trump is running out of options
(about 2 hours later)
Donald Trump used to spend most of his campaign rallies citing his awesome polls in what passed for stump speeches during the primaries. He was up, and his rivals were down. He was a winner, and all the governors and senators were losers.Donald Trump used to spend most of his campaign rallies citing his awesome polls in what passed for stump speeches during the primaries. He was up, and his rivals were down. He was a winner, and all the governors and senators were losers.
But now the polls aren’t so gold-plated, and he thinks they’re mostly all wrong.But now the polls aren’t so gold-plated, and he thinks they’re mostly all wrong.
“Even though we’re doing pretty good in the polls, I don’t believe the polls anymore,” the GOP nominee said last week in Colorado Springs. “Believe me folks, we’re doing great. If we keep our spirit, and we go out and win, this is another Brexit, believe me.”“Even though we’re doing pretty good in the polls, I don’t believe the polls anymore,” the GOP nominee said last week in Colorado Springs. “Believe me folks, we’re doing great. If we keep our spirit, and we go out and win, this is another Brexit, believe me.”
This is the last resort of losing campaigns: the grasping at straws that comes with the sinking feeling that all the time, money and hopes have been for naught. In their final throes, campaigns cling, sometimes bitterly, to an outlier poll, while they mutter darkly about the elites, or the media, or the polls themselves.This is the last resort of losing campaigns: the grasping at straws that comes with the sinking feeling that all the time, money and hopes have been for naught. In their final throes, campaigns cling, sometimes bitterly, to an outlier poll, while they mutter darkly about the elites, or the media, or the polls themselves.
In that regard, Trump is no different from past failures of presidential nominees. But in other ways, he is uniquely of this political moment. What used to be called a throw-the-bums-out mood has turned into a desire to blow the bums up.In that regard, Trump is no different from past failures of presidential nominees. But in other ways, he is uniquely of this political moment. What used to be called a throw-the-bums-out mood has turned into a desire to blow the bums up.
Previous campaigns used to invoke the ghost of Harry Truman to delude themselves through the final days. They loved that old photo of the newly elected president grinning as he brandished the newspaper that declared “Dewey Defeats Truman”.Previous campaigns used to invoke the ghost of Harry Truman to delude themselves through the final days. They loved that old photo of the newly elected president grinning as he brandished the newspaper that declared “Dewey Defeats Truman”.
Trump has no need for Truman because he has Nigel Farage. Never mind that the beer-swilling former leader of the UK Independence party never quite made it to prime minister. Never mind that he was not the mainstream leadership of the “leave” campaign that won the referendum on the European Union.Trump has no need for Truman because he has Nigel Farage. Never mind that the beer-swilling former leader of the UK Independence party never quite made it to prime minister. Never mind that he was not the mainstream leadership of the “leave” campaign that won the referendum on the European Union.
Instead, Trump carries Nigel Farage and Brexit on the campaign trail like some anti-elitist talisman, warding off all the polls that show him losing.Instead, Trump carries Nigel Farage and Brexit on the campaign trail like some anti-elitist talisman, warding off all the polls that show him losing.
“We will win,” he said in Pennsylvania last week. “We will shock the world. This is going to be Brexit-plus.”“We will win,” he said in Pennsylvania last week. “We will shock the world. This is going to be Brexit-plus.”
To the extent that you can consider this an argument, there are two strands to it. One is that the polls were all wrong about Brexit. The other is that Trump is a natural-born winner who has shocked the world through this entire election. So why would 8 November be any different?To the extent that you can consider this an argument, there are two strands to it. One is that the polls were all wrong about Brexit. The other is that Trump is a natural-born winner who has shocked the world through this entire election. So why would 8 November be any different?
First, the Brexit polls. Referendum votes are notoriously hard to model for pollsters for the simple reason that there haven’t been many of them. Will people actually show up when they say they are likely voters? In that sense, the Brexit polls were more unpredictable than presidential election ones are.First, the Brexit polls. Referendum votes are notoriously hard to model for pollsters for the simple reason that there haven’t been many of them. Will people actually show up when they say they are likely voters? In that sense, the Brexit polls were more unpredictable than presidential election ones are.
Still, late surges in turnout can affect the accuracy of polls. Just ask the Kerry campaign, which was openly celebrating its victory based on the first waves of exit polling in 2004. That polling failed to detect the early-day voting patterns in outer suburbs that tipped the contest to President Bush.Still, late surges in turnout can affect the accuracy of polls. Just ask the Kerry campaign, which was openly celebrating its victory based on the first waves of exit polling in 2004. That polling failed to detect the early-day voting patterns in outer suburbs that tipped the contest to President Bush.
Turnout is everything in any election, and the Bush campaign had a best-in-class turnout operation that the Obama campaign learned from in 2008. If Team Trump has something similar, they have done a stunning job of keeping it hidden from the nation at large.Turnout is everything in any election, and the Bush campaign had a best-in-class turnout operation that the Obama campaign learned from in 2008. If Team Trump has something similar, they have done a stunning job of keeping it hidden from the nation at large.
Then there are the Brexit numbers themselves. Until a month out, the “remain” campaign was ahead in the majority of polls. But as the campaign intensified, the Brexit team pulled ahead. Of 18 polls in the first half of June, the leave campaign was ahead in 11 of them, while one was tied.Then there are the Brexit numbers themselves. Until a month out, the “remain” campaign was ahead in the majority of polls. But as the campaign intensified, the Brexit team pulled ahead. Of 18 polls in the first half of June, the leave campaign was ahead in 11 of them, while one was tied.
In the final week, in the midst coverage of the assassination of MP Jo Cox, the polls leaned back in favor of remain. Polling averages ended with the race with the narrowest of edges for remain, between 0.5 and 2 points.In the final week, in the midst coverage of the assassination of MP Jo Cox, the polls leaned back in favor of remain. Polling averages ended with the race with the narrowest of edges for remain, between 0.5 and 2 points.
Today in the presidential contest, the national polling averages – a truly blunt measure in a state-by-state election – place Clinton’s lead at between 6 and 7 points. In the last three months of polling, just eight national polls have given Trump a lead and eight are tied.Today in the presidential contest, the national polling averages – a truly blunt measure in a state-by-state election – place Clinton’s lead at between 6 and 7 points. In the last three months of polling, just eight national polls have given Trump a lead and eight are tied.
Of those 16 more positive polls for Trump, fully nine are the same outlier: a tracking poll by the LA Times and University of Southern California with an unusual methodology that is either “pioneering” as its pollsters suggest, or an embarrassment, as its rivals suggest.Of those 16 more positive polls for Trump, fully nine are the same outlier: a tracking poll by the LA Times and University of Southern California with an unusual methodology that is either “pioneering” as its pollsters suggest, or an embarrassment, as its rivals suggest.
Since the numbers don’t exactly point to another Brexit, all that’s left is Trump’s volatility. Surely a candidate who came out of nowhere could pull off the biggest surprise in political history? Didn’t he do the same in the primaries?Since the numbers don’t exactly point to another Brexit, all that’s left is Trump’s volatility. Surely a candidate who came out of nowhere could pull off the biggest surprise in political history? Didn’t he do the same in the primaries?
Not quite. Trump was consistently ahead in the primary polling from July of last year, just one month after entering the race. You don’t need both hands to count the national polls in which he was trailing during that time.Not quite. Trump was consistently ahead in the primary polling from July of last year, just one month after entering the race. You don’t need both hands to count the national polls in which he was trailing during that time.
Whatever the anti-Trump pundits and forecasters were basing their predictions on, it wasn’t the polling numbers. Instead, it was more likely their personal shock and disbelief at the sight of Trump’s success inside the GOP.Whatever the anti-Trump pundits and forecasters were basing their predictions on, it wasn’t the polling numbers. Instead, it was more likely their personal shock and disbelief at the sight of Trump’s success inside the GOP.
Trump’s personal volatility does not and did not translate into polling volatility. While the candidate may be confusing, his numbers are not. He may blow as hot and cold as a Katy Perry song, but the polls are somewhat less colorful.Trump’s personal volatility does not and did not translate into polling volatility. While the candidate may be confusing, his numbers are not. He may blow as hot and cold as a Katy Perry song, but the polls are somewhat less colorful.
Which brings us back to Brexit. The one takeaway that is relevant to this presidential contest is the importance of turnout. Polling is meaningless if the models are all wrong: if likely voters simply don’t bother with that whole ballot thing. Elections are won with actual votes, not polling data.Which brings us back to Brexit. The one takeaway that is relevant to this presidential contest is the importance of turnout. Polling is meaningless if the models are all wrong: if likely voters simply don’t bother with that whole ballot thing. Elections are won with actual votes, not polling data.
So it’s possible Trump could still win, but it’s not probable. The balance of probabilities lies with the polling trends, which have proved remarkably consistent through this very long election.So it’s possible Trump could still win, but it’s not probable. The balance of probabilities lies with the polling trends, which have proved remarkably consistent through this very long election.
Trump was heading to clear victory through the primaries; he’s heading to a clear defeat now.Trump was heading to clear victory through the primaries; he’s heading to a clear defeat now.