Some think Theresa May should call a general election. Here’s why she can’t
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Version 0 of 1. In recent weeks many people have behaved as though Theresa May has discretion to call a general election at any time. Apparently it is very easy to forget about obscure constitutional rules such as the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which the coalition government passed in 2011. Just as Odysseus had his hands tied to the mast so that he could listen to the sirens, the coalition passed a law to prevent an early election before 2015. They did so by allowing only two paths to an early election. The prime minister, and the queen, no longer have a say on their own. One way is for parliament to vote for an early election, if two-thirds of all the members of the House of Commons (434 MPs) agree. The other way is for a simple majority, 51% of those voting, to pass a motion of no confidence in the government. The no-confidence motion has to take a specific form. A government cannot force backbenchers to agree to a bill, as John Major did on the EU, by making a vote on the bill one “of confidence”. If a no-confidence vote is passed, and a new government cannot be formed within two weeks (and approved in a new vote of confidence), then a general election occurs. Parliament can evade the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act in two ways. It can repeal the act altogether, or it can pass a new act dictating that there will be an election on a certain date and that the act will not apply. But like the no-confidence option, this also requires the vote of a majority of the House of Commons. And unlike the no-confidence vote, it has to happen on three readings of the new law. None of these scenarios is attractive to May, and none may be possible in the current parliament. The power dynamic in the current House of Commons and the Conservative government is shaped by the act. May has a working majority of 16 (26, if the Democratic Unionist party and Ulster Unionists are included). Therefore, any 27 Conservative MPs can ensure that this parliament remains in place until May 2020, when a general election is due under the terms of the act. Current Conservative members have a number of incentives to oppose a new election. Seventy-four new Conservative MPs were elected in 2015. They have only had 18 months to prove that they will be good constituency MPs by holding surgeries, solving constituents’ problems, voting on legislation and generally building up a record to show that they can do the job. Older MPs may oppose a new election on ideological grounds, either anti- or pro-Brexit. Anti-Brexiters may believe that given sufficient time, the government will find that negotiations are difficult and that the economy does not perform well under conditions of uncertainty, so they will be able to campaign for a soft Brexit in the next election. Pro-Brexit MPs may fear that there will be short-term economic dislocation that becomes obvious before an election can take place, so that remainers from other parties will be able to challenge them successfully. There is another element of risk. Many Conservatives’ constituents voted in strong opposition to the position that the MP took in the referendum. Numerous Conservatives who campaigned to leave represent strong remain constituencies, according to the estimates of Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia. These include David Burrowes and Charlotte Leslie, who have majorities of less than 5,000. More numerous are the 70 MPs who campaigned to remain in the 100 strongest leave constituencies, including Johnny Mercer, with a majority of only 1,026 and Jackie Doyle-Price, whose majority was 536 in 2015. Any of these 70 could be vulnerable to a challenge from a revitalised Ukip or even from a Labour candidate who supported Brexit. Numerous Conservatives who campaigned to leave represent strongly remain constituencies The next election in 2020 will take place with new constituency boundaries, and 50 seats will be eliminated. That means the current legislative game is being played inside a game of musical chairs: 50 members will lose their seats when the music stops. This increases MPs’ risk-aversion still further. Jeremy Corbyn claims he supports the idea of a new election, but with his current polling that cannot be a rational position. Labour will vote against it. And smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National party are in the delicious position of watching the Conservatives trapped in place, no matter what happens. Unless circumstances become so dire or the political culture changes sufficiently that broad, cross-party agreements are possible, the situation seems almost certain to continue. The coalition did tie hands to the mast – and the hands they tied were May’s. |