This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live
The article has changed 13 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| UK GDP growth figures to show Brexit vote's impact on the economy – business live | UK GDP growth figures to show Brexit vote's impact on the economy – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.51am BST | |
| 08:51 | |
| The pound has dropped by almost half a cent this morning, to $1.2202, as traders await the UK GDP report. | |
| 8.46am BST | |
| 08:46 | |
| Just 45 minutes until we get the UK GDP report for the last quarter! | |
| Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi predicts it will get a mixed reception: | |
| Expecting 2 reactions to today's 1st post-#Brexit GDP in the UK:We're still growing, we're doing great!It's starting, we're slowing down! | |
| 8.36am BST | |
| 08:36 | |
| Although the City consensus is that UK growth fell to 0.3% in the last quarter, some forecasts are plumping for a rosier +0.4%. | |
| Ross Finley of Reuters has the details: | |
| Potential upside for UK Q3 GDP? Top 5 most accurate forecasters say 0.4% qq, above 0.3% @ReutersPolls median. SmartEstimate also tilts up pic.twitter.com/dU4MeTvujo | |
| 8.27am BST | |
| 08:27 | |
| HSBC are in the camp predicting that UK growth dipped to 0.3% in the last three months. | |
| But they aren’t ruling out a higher figure, saying: | |
| “The U.K. economy has held up in Q3, defying expectations of a pronounced uncertainty-driven slowdown following the referendum. | |
| Given fairly robust indicators, our forecast is for growth of 0.3% qoq, with risks to the upside.” | |
| 8.21am BST | |
| 08:21 | |
| Lagarde: Brexit uncertainty is damaging | |
| Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the uncertainty over Brexit is bad for the economy. | |
| Speaking on Bloomberg, Lagarde says firms want to know whether London-based banks will lose their rights to ‘passport’ services across the EU single market. | |
| Britain’s future trade deals are another question mark, making it harder for companies to invest and create jobs. | |
| This uncertainty is “not healthy”, says Lagarde. | |
| But she does welcome the government’s commitment to trigger article 50 by the end of March 2017. | |
| One thing we know now is the timetable. | |
| So for the next two and a half years nothing changes, but everything is changed. | |
| IMF @Lagarde says Brexit uncertainty damaging. Worrying about banks affect by any loss of passporting | |
| 8.03am BST | 8.03am BST |
| 08:03 | 08:03 |
| Don’t get too excited if today’s GDP report shows that the economy is still growing, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index. | Don’t get too excited if today’s GDP report shows that the economy is still growing, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index. |
| She predicts that consumer spending will provide the bulk of the growth in the last quarter, as industry and construction struggles over the summer | She predicts that consumer spending will provide the bulk of the growth in the last quarter, as industry and construction struggles over the summer |
| Industrial production has fallen sharply in recent months; it fell by 0.4% in August. Construction is facing a steeper decline, the latest Office for National Statistics data on construction output has fallen 2% since June. | Industrial production has fallen sharply in recent months; it fell by 0.4% in August. Construction is facing a steeper decline, the latest Office for National Statistics data on construction output has fallen 2% since June. |
| In contrast, the service sector PMI bounced back after a sharp decline in service sector sentiment in July. We expect this pattern to be repeated in the Q3 GDP report. | In contrast, the service sector PMI bounced back after a sharp decline in service sector sentiment in July. We expect this pattern to be repeated in the Q3 GDP report. |
| And Brooks also fears that 2017 will be tough, as higher inflation eats into real wages. | And Brooks also fears that 2017 will be tough, as higher inflation eats into real wages. |
| The Bank of England has slashed its growth forecasts for 2017 to a mere 0.8%, compared with 2.2% for 2016. Consultancy firm PWC is forecasting a gloomier outcome at 0.6% for 2017. | The Bank of England has slashed its growth forecasts for 2017 to a mere 0.8%, compared with 2.2% for 2016. Consultancy firm PWC is forecasting a gloomier outcome at 0.6% for 2017. |
| The biggest risk for UK growth is a sharp slowdown in business investment that could become more pronounced in the coming months, once the UK government has triggered Article 50. If the UK looks set to lose its access to the single market, then we may see the consumer show signs of stress, which could knock the UK economy seriously off course, and potentially plunge us into recession. | The biggest risk for UK growth is a sharp slowdown in business investment that could become more pronounced in the coming months, once the UK government has triggered Article 50. If the UK looks set to lose its access to the single market, then we may see the consumer show signs of stress, which could knock the UK economy seriously off course, and potentially plunge us into recession. |
| 7.49am BST | 7.49am BST |
| 07:49 | 07:49 |
| Today’s GDP figures are the most eagerly awaited since the British economy returned to growth four years ago. | Today’s GDP figures are the most eagerly awaited since the British economy returned to growth four years ago. |
| Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, says. | Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, says. |
| “This is an extremely high stakes report – the British economy appears to have been surprisingly resilient to the Brexit upset. | “This is an extremely high stakes report – the British economy appears to have been surprisingly resilient to the Brexit upset. |
| “To be clear, some economic damage is still expected, if not of a recession-inducing magnitude.” | “To be clear, some economic damage is still expected, if not of a recession-inducing magnitude.” |
| That’s via Bloomberg, who reckon the report will “swing the mood of consumers and provide a tool for politicians pushing their view on how tough to be when it comes to actually removing the U.K. from the EU”. | That’s via Bloomberg, who reckon the report will “swing the mood of consumers and provide a tool for politicians pushing their view on how tough to be when it comes to actually removing the U.K. from the EU”. |
| 7.39am BST | 7.39am BST |
| 07:39 | 07:39 |
| Introduction: WELCOME TO GDP DAY | Introduction: WELCOME TO GDP DAY |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| We’re about to find out how well, or badly, Britain’s economy fared in the immediate aftermath of June’s historic vote to quit the European Union. | We’re about to find out how well, or badly, Britain’s economy fared in the immediate aftermath of June’s historic vote to quit the European Union. |
| At 9.30am, the Office for National Statistics will whip the official growth figures for the third quarter of this year out of its hat. | At 9.30am, the Office for National Statistics will whip the official growth figures for the third quarter of this year out of its hat. |
| And we’re expecting to learn that the economy slowed sharply in the July to September quarter. But, GDP probably didn’t go into reverse, despite fears that a Brexit vote would trigger an immediate recession. | And we’re expecting to learn that the economy slowed sharply in the July to September quarter. But, GDP probably didn’t go into reverse, despite fears that a Brexit vote would trigger an immediate recession. |
| Economists predict that the quarterly growth rate probably slowed to around 0.3%, or perhaps 0.4%, down from a healthier 0.7% in the April-June quarter. | Economists predict that the quarterly growth rate probably slowed to around 0.3%, or perhaps 0.4%, down from a healthier 0.7% in the April-June quarter. |
| That would mean that Britain’s economy has been growing for 15th consecutive quarters. | That would mean that Britain’s economy has been growing for 15th consecutive quarters. |
| The breakdown of the GDP report will also show how the service sector, manufacturers and construction firms all fared during the last quarter. | The breakdown of the GDP report will also show how the service sector, manufacturers and construction firms all fared during the last quarter. |
| The figures are likely to shift the pound, and move the stock markets, especially if growth is markedly stronger or weaker than the City expects. | The figures are likely to shift the pound, and move the stock markets, especially if growth is markedly stronger or weaker than the City expects. |
| Morning all, UK GDP expected to show the economy made it through Q3/Brexaggeddon w/o collapsing. FTSE called lower after weak Asia pic.twitter.com/HlZMeIsZ2j | Morning all, UK GDP expected to show the economy made it through Q3/Brexaggeddon w/o collapsing. FTSE called lower after weak Asia pic.twitter.com/HlZMeIsZ2j |
| Other data released since June has suggested that the economy has taken the uncertainty pretty well, with the unemployment rate sticking at 4.9% and consumer spending resilient. | Other data released since June has suggested that the economy has taken the uncertainty pretty well, with the unemployment rate sticking at 4.9% and consumer spending resilient. |
| As RBC Capital Markets put it: | As RBC Capital Markets put it: |
| It does seem that the impact of the referendum won’t have been as immediate as we and many others had initially expected. | It does seem that the impact of the referendum won’t have been as immediate as we and many others had initially expected. |
| But, the true impact of Brexit will be seen over years, of course, not months, as Robin Bew of the Economist Intelligence Unit tweets: | But, the true impact of Brexit will be seen over years, of course, not months, as Robin Bew of the Economist Intelligence Unit tweets: |
| Will be lots of debate over #UK GDP data today, but beside the point. #Brexit effect is a gradual erosion over decades, not a point in time | Will be lots of debate over #UK GDP data today, but beside the point. #Brexit effect is a gradual erosion over decades, not a point in time |
| GDP is obviously the main event. But we’ll also keep an eye on financial results from Barclays and Deutsche Bank, plus cider maker C&C, retailer Debenhams and telecoms group BT. | GDP is obviously the main event. But we’ll also keep an eye on financial results from Barclays and Deutsche Bank, plus cider maker C&C, retailer Debenhams and telecoms group BT. |