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Mark Carney to decide future after winning Theresa May's backing – business live Mark Carney to decide future after winning Theresa May's backing – business live
(35 minutes later)
5.31pm GMT
17:31
Investors would probably be reassured if Mark Carney announces he’ll stay at the Bank of England for another three years.
This is from Reuters’ latest update on the governor:
The career plans of a man once dubbed the “outstanding central banker of his generation” have gripped financial markets. Some of the recent slide in sterling and rise in government bond yields have been attributed by analysts to the prospect of Carney leaving the BoE.
“If Carney was to stay until 2021 that would somewhat reassure markets,” said Hetal Mehta, senior European economist with Legal & General Investment Management.
“It would be really unwelcome for (finance minister) Philip Hammond to have to find someone new over the course of next year when he will have a million and one other things to worry about.”
5.00pm GMT
17:00
While we wait for developments, here’s a video clip of Mark Carney responding to an MP’s question:
Mark Carney Vines at the ready https://t.co/Y6Op1tbuB4
4.59pm GMT4.59pm GMT
16:5916:59
Danny Blanchflower, a former Bank of England policymaker, has warned that Mark Carney is the main defence between Britain and chaos.Danny Blanchflower, a former Bank of England policymaker, has warned that Mark Carney is the main defence between Britain and chaos.
Writing in the Guardian tonight, Blanchflower says:Writing in the Guardian tonight, Blanchflower says:
Mark Carney is unequivocally not responsible for the slowing of the UK economy or the fall in the pound. Quite the contrary, he almost single-handedly turned around a potential collapse in output and sentiment in the days after the EU referendum on 23 June. Far from harming Britain, Carney has been the country’s saviour.Mark Carney is unequivocally not responsible for the slowing of the UK economy or the fall in the pound. Quite the contrary, he almost single-handedly turned around a potential collapse in output and sentiment in the days after the EU referendum on 23 June. Far from harming Britain, Carney has been the country’s saviour.
I have criticised the Bank of England governor rather harshly in the past, especially for his claim in August 2015, that “sustained momentum” in the UK economy and rising inflation would “likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalisation into sharper relief around the turn of this year”.I have criticised the Bank of England governor rather harshly in the past, especially for his claim in August 2015, that “sustained momentum” in the UK economy and rising inflation would “likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalisation into sharper relief around the turn of this year”.
That didn’t happen. But I have changed my mind. Right now we all need to stand behind Carney for the good of the country. Without him, chaos reigns.That didn’t happen. But I have changed my mind. Right now we all need to stand behind Carney for the good of the country. Without him, chaos reigns.
Here’s the full piece.Here’s the full piece.
My new column on Brexiteers “Stay away from a fool, for you will not find knowledge on their lips” Carney is saviourhttps://t.co/dTi6HRvEhlMy new column on Brexiteers “Stay away from a fool, for you will not find knowledge on their lips” Carney is saviourhttps://t.co/dTi6HRvEhl
4.44pm GMT4.44pm GMT
16:4416:44
We could get an announcement from the Bank of England tonight, according to Jason Groves of the Daily Mail.We could get an announcement from the Bank of England tonight, according to Jason Groves of the Daily Mail.
That’s not official, though -- so hopefully it won’t interfere with anyone’s trick or treating....That’s not official, though -- so hopefully it won’t interfere with anyone’s trick or treating....
Growing rumours of an announcement on Mark Carney's future tonight - cd come by 6pmGrowing rumours of an announcement on Mark Carney's future tonight - cd come by 6pm
4.34pm GMT4.34pm GMT
16:3416:34
Over at the Oxford Union, the US treasury secretary is educating students about the problems in the global economy.Over at the Oxford Union, the US treasury secretary is educating students about the problems in the global economy.
Jack Lew is running through a familiar litany of problems -- from corporate tax avoidance to worries about migration, and the rise of popularism among those who feel they’re getting an unfair deal.Jack Lew is running through a familiar litany of problems -- from corporate tax avoidance to worries about migration, and the rise of popularism among those who feel they’re getting an unfair deal.
Our economics reporter Katie Allen is tweeting the key points:Our economics reporter Katie Allen is tweeting the key points:
US Treas sec Lew says ppl worried abt a US econ that seems lopsided. Workers pay tax but intl firms seem to be paying nothing in some casesUS Treas sec Lew says ppl worried abt a US econ that seems lopsided. Workers pay tax but intl firms seem to be paying nothing in some cases
Lew recognises when ppl question old models they lash out and focus on immigration. "walls not the answer", but must not ignore anxietiesLew recognises when ppl question old models they lash out and focus on immigration. "walls not the answer", but must not ignore anxieties
On populism, Lew says one thing driving anger is "sense that there are different rules for people in companies that are very successful"On populism, Lew says one thing driving anger is "sense that there are different rules for people in companies that are very successful"
Lew says proud that fin system in better shape now to withstand shocks like Brexit vote but says must not lead to sense of complacencyLew says proud that fin system in better shape now to withstand shocks like Brexit vote but says must not lead to sense of complacency
Hopefully one of the students will ask Lew why the government he’s served in hasn’t managed to tackle these problems...Hopefully one of the students will ask Lew why the government he’s served in hasn’t managed to tackle these problems...
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.34pm GMTat 4.34pm GMT
4.19pm GMT4.19pm GMT
16:1916:19
That ‘pop’ in the pound a few minutes ago may simply be due to trading around the 4pm fix - when the value of the pound is recorded each day, City traders tell me.That ‘pop’ in the pound a few minutes ago may simply be due to trading around the 4pm fix - when the value of the pound is recorded each day, City traders tell me.
Today’s fix may be more volatile as it is the final reading of the month, so investors may be rebalancing their portfolios.Today’s fix may be more volatile as it is the final reading of the month, so investors may be rebalancing their portfolios.
End of month 4pm fix in FX - always spooky moves pic.twitter.com/DJpINszEEzEnd of month 4pm fix in FX - always spooky moves pic.twitter.com/DJpINszEEz
Here’s an explanation of The Fix.Here’s an explanation of The Fix.
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.21pm GMTat 4.21pm GMT
4.11pm GMT4.11pm GMT
16:1116:11
Here’s the official (no) comment from Downing Street about today’s meeting between Theresa May and Mark Carney.Here’s the official (no) comment from Downing Street about today’s meeting between Theresa May and Mark Carney.
“This was a scheduled, planned meeting that had been in the diary for a while.“This was a scheduled, planned meeting that had been in the diary for a while.
I’m not going to go into the details of the discussions.”I’m not going to go into the details of the discussions.”
4.05pm GMT4.05pm GMT
16:0516:05
Curiously, the pound just jumped by half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.2217.Curiously, the pound just jumped by half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.2217.
It’s also up half a percent against the euro, to €1.114.It’s also up half a percent against the euro, to €1.114.
It’s not clear what sparked this mini rally, or whether it will last.It’s not clear what sparked this mini rally, or whether it will last.
Carney and the pound. pic.twitter.com/CWxjsGFKYwCarney and the pound. pic.twitter.com/CWxjsGFKYw
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.13pm GMTat 4.13pm GMT
4.02pm GMT4.02pm GMT
16:0216:02
Theresa May’s spokeswoman won’t say how the meeting with Mark Carney went, alas.Theresa May’s spokeswoman won’t say how the meeting with Mark Carney went, alas.
*MAY SPOKESWOMAN WON'T COMMENT ON DETAILS OF CARNEY TALKS TODAY*MAY SPOKESWOMAN WON'T COMMENT ON DETAILS OF CARNEY TALKS TODAY
4.00pm GMT4.00pm GMT
16:0016:00
The long-term value of the pound will be determined by the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU and the trade deals it secures, not the identity of the Bank of England governor.The long-term value of the pound will be determined by the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU and the trade deals it secures, not the identity of the Bank of England governor.
So argues Neil Wilson of City trading firm ETX Capital, who says Carney’s future shouldn’t distract from the fundamental issues affecting the UK economy.So argues Neil Wilson of City trading firm ETX Capital, who says Carney’s future shouldn’t distract from the fundamental issues affecting the UK economy.
He writes:He writes:
Investors are selling the pound for a variety of reasons and the whole Carney saga doesn’t amount to a hill of beans for the currency....Investors are selling the pound for a variety of reasons and the whole Carney saga doesn’t amount to a hill of beans for the currency....
Sterling was the worst performing currency in October, having had its worst month since June, which has more to do with ‘hard Brexit’ talk since the Tory party conference than speculation over Mr Carney’s future.Sterling was the worst performing currency in October, having had its worst month since June, which has more to do with ‘hard Brexit’ talk since the Tory party conference than speculation over Mr Carney’s future.
For sterling what really matters is how Britain handles the Brexit process and what direction Theresa May and co plan to take the country in the coming months before invoking Article 50. The chief drivers of the pound value now are political, not which city Mr Carney chooses to live in. (Also if the economy continues to hold up well into next year we could see sterling crank higher.)For sterling what really matters is how Britain handles the Brexit process and what direction Theresa May and co plan to take the country in the coming months before invoking Article 50. The chief drivers of the pound value now are political, not which city Mr Carney chooses to live in. (Also if the economy continues to hold up well into next year we could see sterling crank higher.)
And while Mr Carney provides continuity and reassurance, it’s hard to see him doing an awful lot between now and 2018 that would be different to any other central banker.”And while Mr Carney provides continuity and reassurance, it’s hard to see him doing an awful lot between now and 2018 that would be different to any other central banker.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.08pm GMTat 4.08pm GMT
3.41pm GMT3.41pm GMT
15:4115:41
Even the satirists are having their say:Even the satirists are having their say:
As Michael Gove tells Mark Carney to “curb his arrogance”, Jacob Rees-Mogg says he should cut back on his over-privileged pomposity too.As Michael Gove tells Mark Carney to “curb his arrogance”, Jacob Rees-Mogg says he should cut back on his over-privileged pomposity too.
3.28pm GMT
15:28
Unless we get a late rally tonight, the pound is going to rack up its worst month since June - having dropped by over 6% in October.
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, says the uncertainty over Mark Carney’s future has weighed on sterling.
“The talk of Carney not taking up the extra three years after 2018 has rattled investors in what is a very uncertain outlook.
Until his decision to stay on is formally acknowledged,markets are correct in treating the situation as uncertain.”
3.07pm GMT
15:07
Carney also waved what looked like an A4 leather binder towards the press pack as he exited Number 10 a few minutes ago:
Updated
at 3.10pm GMT
3.00pm GMT
15:00
Photos: Carney leaves Downing Street
Here you go -- photos of Mark Carney leaving his meeting with Theresa May - with a shy smile for the cameras (but no words, alas)
2.57pm GMT
14:57
Mark Carney has just left his meeting with Theresa May, according to Sky’s Ed Conway.
No news on his future yet, though....
Mark Carney has left Downing St after an hour and 40 minutes. Didn't say anything. Watch this space
Mark Carney has left the building! No comments to reporters.
2.55pm GMT
14:55
Mark Carney hasn’t been slack at the BoE. Since joining in summer 2013 he’s:
Our timeline has the full story:
Brexit warnings, plastic banknotes and serenity. Mark Carney's time as Bank of England governor – timeline https://t.co/bLAfnS1Ld1
2.41pm GMT
14:41
Mark Carney has long been rumoured to fancy a career in politics. And recent events suggests he may have a fine grasp of the dark arts of political spin.
The Telegraph’s James Kirkup argues that Carney has played a blinder this month, by using the attacks from Brexit supporters to spark a debate about his future.
The key to the saga is Carney’s declaration last week that his decision on whether to stay or go in 2018 was “entirely personal”. That sent the hare running.... and it got a second burst of speed when various Carney ‘friends’ suggested he was leaning towards a return to Canada.
Kirkup explains how Carney outfoxed his detractors within Theresa May’s government:
Before the row over his ideological commitment to Brexit blew up, there was a perfectly respectable question to be asked about Mr Carney’s future based on his competence as a central banker. Some of his policies, especially “forward guidance” about rates, have been less than impressive, leading to confusion instead of the clarity he promised.
But the Carney-bashers have allowed that debate to shift from economics into politics, an arena where Mr Carney does rather well. He understood that Mrs May could not afford to have markets and investors (and even some voters) see Brexit Britain as the sort of country where the central bank governor can be purged for failing to pass a political purity test.
Simply, it might (just) have been viable to let Mr Carney go for being incompetent, but it wasn’t sensible to do so for reasons of politics. The Governor saw that and upped the ante accordingly: he could afford to walk away; could Britain afford to have him go?
Mark Carney hasn't just played a political game, he's won it hands down https://t.co/DysNcGVOMT via @telegraphnews
2.19pm GMT
14:19
Here’s our latest news story on Mark Carney’s future, by economics editor Larry Elliott:
2.12pm GMT
14:12
A quick catch-up
Right, let’s quickly recap before Mark Carney emerges from his meeting at Number 10 Downing Street.
The future of Britain’s central bank chief could be decided soon, following a weekend of speculation that has gripped the City.
Mark Carney is meeting with Theresa May now, less than a day after the Financial Times reported that he was ready to serve another three years as Bank of England governor.
Theresa May’s spokeswoman has already signalled that the government backs Carney, following several days of criticism from politicians who campaigned for Brexit.
The spokeswoman said that Carney was “absolutely” the right man to run the BoE, saying:
The PM has been clear in her support for the governor, the work he is doing for the country. It is clearly a decision for him, but the PM would certainly be supportive of him going on beyond his five years.
The PM has always had a good working relationship with the governor of the Bank of England and intends to continue that.
As things stand, Carney’s current contract expires in the summer of 2018, but he has the option of a three-year extension.
A string of City investors and economists have argued that Carney should stay on, to provide stability at this time.
Prominent voices today include Hendrik Du Toit, the chief executive of Investec Asset Management, former BoE policymaker Adam Posen, and Lothar Mentel, CIO of Tatton Investment Management.
But Carney’s critics insist that the governor’s reputation has been damaged by his comments in the run-up to June’s referendum, and his actions since.
Daniel Hannan, the MEP who played a key role making Brexit a reality, said Carney has made mistakes at the Bank - and needed to stop acting like a politician.
He told the Today Programme that:
If he does stay, it’s on the basis that he’s not the rockstar banker who presumes to tell Scotland how to vote, and [instead he] stays narrowly to his brief.
Two Conservative MPs, Nicholas Soames and Anna Soubry, also publicly backed Carney this morning.
But the pound remains under pressure, and is now down 0.2% at $1.216. Traders say that the criticism of Carney may have undermined the Bank of England’s independence, even if he does decide to stay on until 2021.
Updated
at 2.17pm GMT
1.53pm GMT
13:53
Carney arrives for talks with May
Mark Carney has arrived at Downing Street, and is meeting with Theresa May right now... just a couple of hours after the PM offered the governor her full support.
Could an announcement on his future come today?....
Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney arrives at Downing Street to meet the Prime Minister pic.twitter.com/JuqZKBwzyq
1.31pm GMT
13:31
This uncertainty over Mark Carney’s future has come at a bad time, says Costas Milas, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool, in a new blog post.
With Britain probably entering a “increasing economic uncertainty”, the governor needs to reassure himself that he has Downing Street’s full support, before deciding whether to extend his tenure until 2012.
Milas writes:
One of the unwritten rules of football is never substitute a player – let alone your captain – when defending a corner. Indeed, with Brexit headwinds moving fast(?) our way, this is not the time to replace the Governor.
Mark Carney himself should seek reassurances of no further ‘foul play’ by the government so that he confirms his Governorship until 2021. Unless, of course, government officials have already found a ‘suitable’ replacement.
But then again, would another candidate be willing to risk their reputation on such a demanding job knowing, or at least suspecting, that their predecessor decided to step down partly because of rising tensions and/or interference by government officials?
Let Mark Carney do his job – why this is not the time to replace the Governor of the Bank of England https://t.co/HxZUJKew85 pic.twitter.com/81nHK0DLPZ