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Presidential Election: Key Dynamics to Watch For With 6 Days Left Presidential Election: Key Dynamics to Watch For With 6 Days Left
(about 7 hours later)
With only six days left in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump are working overtime to turn out voters, but their power to shift the direction of the race diminishes every day.With only six days left in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump are working overtime to turn out voters, but their power to shift the direction of the race diminishes every day.
Both campaigns still have important decisions to make as they fine-tune their approaches — decisions that could affect who wins, and also how that person wins and how the victory is interpreted. Here are some of the key dynamics we are watching: Both campaigns still have important decisions to make as they fine-tune their approaches — decisions that could affect who wins, and also how that person wins and how the victory is interpreted.
The historic nature of Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy has been emphasized on and off in 2016 — at key moments like the Democratic convention, but not always in the daily back-and-forth of campaigning. Some of the key dynamics we are watching in a race that will undoubtedly twist and turn to the end:
It may be a more consistent theme in the last days of the race, as Mrs. Clinton makes her final argument to voters and Democrats seek to put Mr. Trump on the defensive again over his treatment of women. Mrs. Clinton stressed her support for women and girls on Tuesday in Florida; she was introduced there by Alicia Machado, the former beauty pageant winner whom Mr. Trump ridiculed for her physique. The killing of two police officers in the Des Moines area has caused the Clinton campaign to change its schedule.
Perhaps even more telling was President Obama’s campaign swing in Ohio, where he made an explicit appeal to men, asking them to consider if they were judging Mrs. Clinton differently because she is a woman. That’s a far blunter entreaty than male voters have heard from national Democrats so far this election. Tim Kaine, former President Bill Clinton and the singer Ben Harper were planning a get-out-the vote performance at the Des Moines Social Club on Wednesday night, but the event was scrapped because of the tragedy.
Mr. Trump, who has in the past used attacks on police to amplify his “law and order” message, offered a measured response and said that he was praying for the families of the officers.
“An attack on those who keep us safe is an attack on all of us,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post on Twitter.
The historic nature of Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy has been emphasized on and off in 2016 — at important moments like the Democratic convention, but not always in the daily back-and-forth of campaigning.
It may be a more consistent theme in the last days of the race, as Mrs. Clinton makes her final argument to voters and Democrats seek to put Mr. Trump on the defensive again over his treatment of women. Mrs. Clinton stressed her support for women and girls on Tuesday in Florida; she was introduced there by Alicia Machado, the former beauty pageant winner Mr. Trump ridiculed for her physique.
Perhaps even more telling was President Obama’s campaign swing in Ohio, where he made an explicit appeal to men, asking them to consider if they were judging Mrs. Clinton differently because she is a woman. That’s a far more blunt entreaty than male voters have heard from national Democrats so far this election.
For Mr. Trump, the difference between trailing Mrs. Clinton by a little and trailing by a lot has often been the strength of his backing from other Republicans. Campaigning on a set of themes unlike any other recent Republican nominee, Mr. Trump has occasionally fallen behind by landslide margins when conservative-leaning voters shifted away from him.For Mr. Trump, the difference between trailing Mrs. Clinton by a little and trailing by a lot has often been the strength of his backing from other Republicans. Campaigning on a set of themes unlike any other recent Republican nominee, Mr. Trump has occasionally fallen behind by landslide margins when conservative-leaning voters shifted away from him.
Shunned by many party leaders, Mr. Trump is plainly still working to rally Republicans: His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, has been publicly pleading with partisans to “come home” to their presidential ticket. Mr. Pence will campaign on Wednesday in Arizona, a traditionally conservative state where Mr. Trump has struggled. And Mr. Trump’s campaign released a radio ad on Tuesday night aimed at courting evangelical voters — not a group that usually needs additional attention from a Republican nominee.Shunned by many party leaders, Mr. Trump is plainly still working to rally Republicans: His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, has been publicly pleading with partisans to “come home” to their presidential ticket. Mr. Pence will campaign on Wednesday in Arizona, a traditionally conservative state where Mr. Trump has struggled. And Mr. Trump’s campaign released a radio ad on Tuesday night aimed at courting evangelical voters — not a group that usually needs additional attention from a Republican nominee.
Republican support alone cannot make Mr. Trump the next president. But only by improving and cementing his support on the right can Mr. Trump get close to Mrs. Clinton on Election Day and leave a lasting mark on the party he has helmed since spring.Republican support alone cannot make Mr. Trump the next president. But only by improving and cementing his support on the right can Mr. Trump get close to Mrs. Clinton on Election Day and leave a lasting mark on the party he has helmed since spring.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump are largely battling over a handful of big swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But both are also traveling outside the traditional map this week and throwing money at television commercials in unexpected places.Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump are largely battling over a handful of big swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But both are also traveling outside the traditional map this week and throwing money at television commercials in unexpected places.
Mrs. Clinton will be in Arizona on Wednesday, seeking to exploit Mr. Trump’s weakness with Hispanic voters and suburban whites. Mr. Trump visited Michigan and New Mexico earlier in the week, trying to find new paths to victory in the Electoral College, where Mrs. Clinton holds a considerable advantage. But he will return to conventional turf on Wednesday, making three stops in Florida.Mrs. Clinton will be in Arizona on Wednesday, seeking to exploit Mr. Trump’s weakness with Hispanic voters and suburban whites. Mr. Trump visited Michigan and New Mexico earlier in the week, trying to find new paths to victory in the Electoral College, where Mrs. Clinton holds a considerable advantage. But he will return to conventional turf on Wednesday, making three stops in Florida.
While Democrats express confidence that they can repel Mr. Trump’s forays, they are leaving little to chance: Mrs. Clinton now plans to visit Detroit on Friday. If Mr. Trump finds his path forward continually frustrated, could he add another long-shot state or two?While Democrats express confidence that they can repel Mr. Trump’s forays, they are leaving little to chance: Mrs. Clinton now plans to visit Detroit on Friday. If Mr. Trump finds his path forward continually frustrated, could he add another long-shot state or two?
With his fired-up return to the trail on Tuesday, Mr. Obama showed again why he is Mrs. Clinton’s most valuable surrogate. He is the most popular person in national politics and perhaps uniquely effective at reaching black voters and young people at a moment when Democrats are anxious about turnout. That makes him a powerful asset to Mrs. Clinton in a state like North Carolina, where he will campaign on Wednesday. Although Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, has been dropping in most polls since he was left out of the presidential debates, the ticket could still have an impact in a close race, given its popularity in states such as New Mexico and Colorado.
But for Mr. Trump, who has striven to deliver a strict message over the last week, Mr. Obama is also a uniquely dangerous figure, unusually skilled at goading Mr. Trump into confrontation and anger. Though a fight with Mr. Obama would be politically ill advised, Mr. Trump may struggle to not take the bait if Mr. Obama continues with the kind of onslaught he opened on Tuesday. Confusing the matter is the fact that William Weld the party’s vice-presidential nominee, essentially endorsed Mrs. Clinton in an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday night.
“Well I’m here vouching for Mrs. Clinton and I think it’s high time somebody did and I’m doing it based on my personal experience with her and I think she deserves to have people vouch for her,” Mr. Weld said when asked if his loyalty to the Libertarian Party was stronger than his fear of a Trump presidency.
Mr. Weld, a former Republican governor of Massachusetts, acknowledged that he and Mr. Johnson have many policy disagreements and that they no longer have a chance to win the presidency this year.
For his part, Mr. Johnson has kept up his attacks on Mrs. Clinton and in a debate with Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, he suggested that she would be “engaged in the impeachment process” on day one if elected.
With his fired-up return to the trail on Tuesday, Mr. Obama showed again why he is Mrs. Clinton’s most valuable surrogate. He is the most popular person in national politics and perhaps uniquely effective at reaching black voters and young people at a moment when Democrats are anxious about turnout. That makes him a powerful asset to Mrs. Clinton in a state like North Carolina, where he is campaigning on Wednesday.
But for Mr. Trump, who has striven to deliver a strict message over the last week, Mr. Obama might also be a dangerous figure, unusually skilled at goading Mr. Trump into confrontation and anger. Though a fight with Mr. Obama would be politically ill advised, Mr. Trump may struggle to not take the bait if Mr. Obama continues with the kind of onslaught he opened on Tuesday.
In a campaign fought largely through scorched-earth attacks, the final week might always have been destined to look like this.In a campaign fought largely through scorched-earth attacks, the final week might always have been destined to look like this.
Yet the daily crossfire between the campaigns is still striking for its total and ferocious negativity: Mr. Trump has staked his underdog campaign on savaging Mrs. Clinton as corrupt, while Mrs. Clinton and her aides have battered Mr. Trump for his personal finances and the accusations of sexual assault against him, as well as for Mr. Trump’s warm attitude toward Russia.Yet the daily crossfire between the campaigns is still striking for its total and ferocious negativity: Mr. Trump has staked his underdog campaign on savaging Mrs. Clinton as corrupt, while Mrs. Clinton and her aides have battered Mr. Trump for his personal finances and the accusations of sexual assault against him, as well as for Mr. Trump’s warm attitude toward Russia.
If Mr. Trump has been a slash-and-burn campaigner from the start, Mrs. Clinton has gestured here and there toward uplift: She said on Tuesday that she hoped to persuade people to vote for her, not merely against Mr. Trump. But even a concerted effort to go positive might be unlikely to break through at this stage.If Mr. Trump has been a slash-and-burn campaigner from the start, Mrs. Clinton has gestured here and there toward uplift: She said on Tuesday that she hoped to persuade people to vote for her, not merely against Mr. Trump. But even a concerted effort to go positive might be unlikely to break through at this stage.
She has largely been absent since the Republican convention in July, but Ms. Trump will make an appearance on behalf of her husband in suburban Philadelphia on Thursday.
According to the campaign, Ms. Trump will “address the American people to get out the vote and share what a Trump Administration’s vision would be like for American women, children and families” at the event at the Main Line Sports Center in Berwyn.
Ms. Trump has maintained that she has kept a low profile so that she can focus on raising her young child, but the campaign hinted that she would help her husband make his final pitch to voters.