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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/03/bank-of-england-growth-inflation-interest-rates-brexit-business-live
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| Version 5 | Version 6 |
|---|---|
| Bank of England's Mark Carney says he has Theresa May's full support – business live | Bank of England's Mark Carney says he has Theresa May's full support – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.30pm GMT | |
| 13:30 | |
| A final question.... is there an inflation level that would force the Bank to take action? | |
| Carney won’t be lured into setting a figure -- perhaps burned by his previous experience of forward guidance. | |
| It all depends what is causing prices to rise over target, and what the best response is. | |
| Carney: Won't give a numerical limit we will tolerate on inflation. Any limit is a product of what's causing inflation overshoot. | |
| #Carney refuses to give a figure which is a beyond tolerable level of inflation; says it depends on what reasons behind the overshoot are | |
| 1.26pm GMT | 1.26pm GMT |
| 13:26 | 13:26 |
| Carney: Consumers aren't being stupid | Carney: Consumers aren't being stupid |
| Q: Are consumers being short-sighted and stupid by still spending, and not realising how difficult things are going to get? | Q: Are consumers being short-sighted and stupid by still spending, and not realising how difficult things are going to get? |
| Not at all - people still have jobs, and are behaving rationally, Mark Carney replies. | Not at all - people still have jobs, and are behaving rationally, Mark Carney replies. |
| 1.24pm GMT | 1.24pm GMT |
| 13:24 | 13:24 |
| Carney: “We don’t feel under any political pressure from the govt. PM & govt fully support monetary policy framework we have in place.” | Carney: “We don’t feel under any political pressure from the govt. PM & govt fully support monetary policy framework we have in place.” |
| 1.21pm GMT | 1.21pm GMT |
| 13:21 | 13:21 |
| Carney: I've got Theresa May's full support | Carney: I've got Theresa May's full support |
| Carney is then asked whether Theresa May’s recent criticism of the Bank’s monetary policy, at the Tory party conference, has undermined him. | Carney is then asked whether Theresa May’s recent criticism of the Bank’s monetary policy, at the Tory party conference, has undermined him. |
| Q: Does he feel any political pressure to change the bank’s forecasts? | |
| Not at all, he replies. | Not at all, he replies. |
| We don’t feel under any pressure from the government, and especially not from the prime minister. | We don’t feel under any pressure from the government, and especially not from the prime minister. |
| The prime minister, and the government, fully support the monetary policy framework we have in place. | The prime minister, and the government, fully support the monetary policy framework we have in place. |
| Updated | |
| at 1.34pm GMT | |
| 1.16pm GMT | 1.16pm GMT |
| 13:16 | 13:16 |
| Hugo Duncan of the Daily Mail tries to get some new forward guidance out of the governor. | Hugo Duncan of the Daily Mail tries to get some new forward guidance out of the governor. |
| Q: Can you tell us whether the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up, or down? | Q: Can you tell us whether the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up, or down? |
| You can see scenarios where it goes either way, we don’t have a bias, Mark Carney replies. | You can see scenarios where it goes either way, we don’t have a bias, Mark Carney replies. |
| But the monetary policy committee currently unanimously believes that the present stance is right. | But the monetary policy committee currently unanimously believes that the present stance is right. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.20pm GMT | at 1.20pm GMT |
| 1.16pm GMT | 1.16pm GMT |
| 13:16 | 13:16 |
| 1.14pm GMT | 1.14pm GMT |
| 13:14 | 13:14 |
| Q: If the Brexit process isn’t completed by 2019, might you stay on longer? | Q: If the Brexit process isn’t completed by 2019, might you stay on longer? |
| Carney repeats that we’ve had enough talk about his future. | Carney repeats that we’ve had enough talk about his future. |
| And he then warns that today’s court ruling on article 50 is just one example of the “series of events” that will take place as Britain leaves the EU, creating uncertainty. | And he then warns that today’s court ruling on article 50 is just one example of the “series of events” that will take place as Britain leaves the EU, creating uncertainty. |
| Everything doesn’t come together until relatively late in the process, and those effects will be there in the economy. | Everything doesn’t come together until relatively late in the process, and those effects will be there in the economy. |
| 1.14pm GMT | 1.14pm GMT |
| 13:14 | 13:14 |
| Q: Should families who are just getting by be worried about your inflation forecasts [hitting 2.7% in 2017]? | Q: Should families who are just getting by be worried about your inflation forecasts [hitting 2.7% in 2017]? |
| We expect inflation to go up, Carney states bluntly, and that will hit people in the pocket. | We expect inflation to go up, Carney states bluntly, and that will hit people in the pocket. |
| But he then flags up that the Bank expects wage growth to be stronger by 2020. | But he then flags up that the Bank expects wage growth to be stronger by 2020. |
| There’s a difficult period here, but it has to be put into context. | There’s a difficult period here, but it has to be put into context. |
| Carney: expect inflation to rise. must make judgment on how fast get it back to target at time when econ abt to undergo big transition | Carney: expect inflation to rise. must make judgment on how fast get it back to target at time when econ abt to undergo big transition |
| 1.09pm GMT | 1.09pm GMT |
| 13:09 | 13:09 |
| Q: How much would the pound have to fall, and how fast, to concern you - and would you intervene in the currency markets? | Q: How much would the pound have to fall, and how fast, to concern you - and would you intervene in the currency markets? |
| Carney says the BoE doesn’t target the sterling exchange rate, but it isn’t ‘indifferent’ to it. | Carney says the BoE doesn’t target the sterling exchange rate, but it isn’t ‘indifferent’ to it. |
| 1.06pm GMT | 1.06pm GMT |
| 13:06 | 13:06 |
| Ben Chu of the Independent takes the governor back to the recent criticism from pro-Brexit MPs, and the claim from former foreign secretary William Hague that central bankers had lost the plot. | Ben Chu of the Independent takes the governor back to the recent criticism from pro-Brexit MPs, and the claim from former foreign secretary William Hague that central bankers had lost the plot. |
| Q: Is this undermining Bank independence, and should your critics take a vow of silence? | Q: Is this undermining Bank independence, and should your critics take a vow of silence? |
| Carney grins, and slips into Canadian as he mutters “Jeez, It’s a trap”. | Carney grins, and slips into Canadian as he mutters “Jeez, It’s a trap”. |
| He then says there is a robust mechanism of accountability, including regular appearances before parliamentary committees. | He then says there is a robust mechanism of accountability, including regular appearances before parliamentary committees. |
| The debate should be as ‘vigorous’ as necessary. And it’s important that the MPC recognises the limits of its responsibilities, he adds. | The debate should be as ‘vigorous’ as necessary. And it’s important that the MPC recognises the limits of its responsibilities, he adds. |
| Carney asked if sniping at governor by MPs undermines independence of central bank. Under his breath says "Jeez, it's a trap" | Carney asked if sniping at governor by MPs undermines independence of central bank. Under his breath says "Jeez, it's a trap" |
| Debate about what Bank does "can be as vigorous as people want" says Mark Carney - seems unbothered by Bexiteer critics | Debate about what Bank does "can be as vigorous as people want" says Mark Carney - seems unbothered by Bexiteer critics |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.08pm GMT | at 1.08pm GMT |
| 1.01pm GMT | 1.01pm GMT |
| 13:01 | 13:01 |
| Q: Three months ago the Bank made major downward revisions to its growth forecasts, and today it’s made major upward revisions. So is there a problem with your forecasting? | Q: Three months ago the Bank made major downward revisions to its growth forecasts, and today it’s made major upward revisions. So is there a problem with your forecasting? |
| Carney argues that we shouldn’t get carried away with short-term revisions. | Carney argues that we shouldn’t get carried away with short-term revisions. |
| Broadly speaking, the size of the UK economy is still expected to be roughly the same in two or three years as we thought in August. | Broadly speaking, the size of the UK economy is still expected to be roughly the same in two or three years as we thought in August. |
| Basically, Carney is saying the BoE has learnt from the past three months that it was right all along. | Basically, Carney is saying the BoE has learnt from the past three months that it was right all along. |
| Deputy governor Ben Broadbent weighs in too, saying that most independent forecasters expected the economy would contract after the Brexit vote. That was more negative (and thus wronger) than the Bank’s own forecasts. | Deputy governor Ben Broadbent weighs in too, saying that most independent forecasters expected the economy would contract after the Brexit vote. That was more negative (and thus wronger) than the Bank’s own forecasts. |
| 12.56pm GMT | 12.56pm GMT |
| 12:56 | 12:56 |
| Carney won't discuss staying beyond 2019 | Carney won't discuss staying beyond 2019 |
| Q: Could you be persuaded to stay at the Bank of England beyond 2019, if things are going well? | Q: Could you be persuaded to stay at the Bank of England beyond 2019, if things are going well? |
| I think we’ve all had enough of that saga, Carney shoots back, in an attempt to keep talk of his future nailed down [reminder, on Monday he agreed to serve one more year, until June 2019] | I think we’ve all had enough of that saga, Carney shoots back, in an attempt to keep talk of his future nailed down [reminder, on Monday he agreed to serve one more year, until June 2019] |
| Carney asked about his future, and could you stay an extra 2 years: "I think we have all had enough of that saga so let's not reopen it" | Carney asked about his future, and could you stay an extra 2 years: "I think we have all had enough of that saga so let's not reopen it" |
| Q: Does the recent news storm over your future show that the relationship between the government and the Bank needs to change? | Q: Does the recent news storm over your future show that the relationship between the government and the Bank needs to change? |
| Carney argues that the current system, in which the government hands control of monetary policy to technocrats such as himself, is working. | Carney argues that the current system, in which the government hands control of monetary policy to technocrats such as himself, is working. |
| “I don’t think the framework needs to change, i think it works quite well” | “I don’t think the framework needs to change, i think it works quite well” |
| Mark Carney praises macro framework of the Bank of England and the "clear designation" of responsibility to technocrats... | Mark Carney praises macro framework of the Bank of England and the "clear designation" of responsibility to technocrats... |
| 12.53pm GMT | 12.53pm GMT |
| 12:53 | 12:53 |
| Q: UK bond yields are up sharply since your stimulus package in August, so has it failed - and has monetary policy shot its bolt? | Q: UK bond yields are up sharply since your stimulus package in August, so has it failed - and has monetary policy shot its bolt? |
| No, Carney replies. He argues that the Bank could still buy more British gilts if needed. | No, Carney replies. He argues that the Bank could still buy more British gilts if needed. |
| 12.51pm GMT | 12.51pm GMT |
| 12:51 | 12:51 |
| Carney denies that the Bank has got ahead of itself and been “presumptuous” by trying to predict the kind of Brexit deal that Britain will end up with. | Carney denies that the Bank has got ahead of itself and been “presumptuous” by trying to predict the kind of Brexit deal that Britain will end up with. |
| Carney on what kind of Brexit UK will get: negotiations not begun and "it's all to play for" | Carney on what kind of Brexit UK will get: negotiations not begun and "it's all to play for" |
| @bankofengland Carney says made no change to hard/soft Brexit assumptions but hit to supply comes through harder later. | @bankofengland Carney says made no change to hard/soft Brexit assumptions but hit to supply comes through harder later. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.53pm GMT | at 12.53pm GMT |
| 12.50pm GMT | 12.50pm GMT |
| 12:50 | 12:50 |
| Q: The bank has cut its growth forecasts for 2018, so is the pain of Brexit simply being delayed? | Q: The bank has cut its growth forecasts for 2018, so is the pain of Brexit simply being delayed? |
| Carney replies that the Bank sees “very modest real income growth” in 2017 and 2018, as inflation eats into wages. | Carney replies that the Bank sees “very modest real income growth” in 2017 and 2018, as inflation eats into wages. |