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High court Brexit ruling: what does it all mean? High court Brexit ruling: what does it all mean?
(35 minutes later)
Can this stop Brexit?Can this stop Brexit?
Almost certainly not. But it does make the position much more confused. It risks driving an even bigger wedge between the leavers and the remainers, particularly since the leavers are likely to interpret this as one more desperate attempt by the Metropolitan liberal elite to thwart the will of the people (a suspicion that is going to shape the thinking of a lot of MPs). Almost certainly not. But it does make the position much more confused. MPs are talking of the high court triggering a constitutional crisis without any indication of how to get out of it.
The government has said it will appeal the decision and it has permission to go straight to the supreme court, which has set aside time on 7 and 8 December. All 11 of the justices in position will have a chance to decide on a matter that goes to the heart of the UK’s unwritten constitution. It also risks driving an even bigger wedge between leavers and remainers, particularly since the leavers are likely to interpret this as one more desperate attempt by the Metropolitan liberal elite to thwart the will of the people (a suspicion that is going to shape the thinking of a lot of MPs).
The government has said it will appeal against the decision and it has permission to go straight to the supreme court, which has set aside time on 7 and 8 December. All 11 of the justices in position will have a chance to decide on a matter that goes to the heart of the UK’s unwritten constitution.
It is by no means certain that the supreme court will buy the high court’s thinking on this. In particular, it is likely to be extremely sensitive to public opinion about the role of the court, and whether it is making decisions that are more political than judicial.It is by no means certain that the supreme court will buy the high court’s thinking on this. In particular, it is likely to be extremely sensitive to public opinion about the role of the court, and whether it is making decisions that are more political than judicial.
How will parliament be consulted?How will parliament be consulted?
This is not clear at the moment. Is a straight yes or no vote - a kind of parliamentary referendum - enough? Or does there have to be legislation? If there has to be a whole new bill that goes to the Commons and Lords stage by stage, it will be a long and (for the government) dangerous fight. If it’s just yes or no, the vote could happen quickly - and probably within Theresa May’s previously stated timetable of triggering article 50 by the end of March. The biggest question of all. Is a straight yes or no vote a kind of parliamentary referendum enough? Or does there have to be legislation? The people who brought the case argued that it would be constitutionally impossible to change the law of Britain (as of course leaving the EU would, massively) without an act of parliament.
If there has to be a whole new bill that goes to the Commons and Lords stage by stage, it will be a long and (for the government) dangerous fight. If it’s just yes or no, the vote could happen quickly - and probably within Theresa May’s previously stated timetable of triggering article 50 by the end of March.
How would MPs vote on article 50?How would MPs vote on article 50?
That’s not clear. Most MPs supported remain, but most represent constituencies that voted leave. This will go right to the heart of how the British constitution works: whether MPs should vote according to the wishes of their constituents or in their best judgement (leaving the electorate to decide whether to keep them in a job at the next election).That’s not clear. Most MPs supported remain, but most represent constituencies that voted leave. This will go right to the heart of how the British constitution works: whether MPs should vote according to the wishes of their constituents or in their best judgement (leaving the electorate to decide whether to keep them in a job at the next election).
Having said that, leave was the majority view in nearly 70% of Labour seats for example, so it would probably be electoral suicide for MPs to rebel (and perhaps even abstain). Such a move could open the gates to Ukip. Having said that, leave was the majority view in nearly 70% of Labour seats for example, so it would probably be electoral suicide for the party’s MPs to rebel (or perhaps even abstain). Such a move could open the gates to Ukip.
Does it make an early general election more likely?Does it make an early general election more likely?
Yes, it must. That is one thing that MPs could possibly do to sort out the conflict between what they think is in the national interest and what their voters want. Although it is hard to think of a single Labour MP who would fancy the idea right now - and it would take a two-third majority in the Commons to trigger an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Yes, it must. That is one thing that MPs could possibly do to sort out the conflict between what they think is in the national interest and what their voters want. Although it is hard to think of a single Labour MP who would fancy the idea right now - and it would take a two-thirds majority in the Commons to trigger an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.