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| A post-Brexit recovery – for Gove at least | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Michael Gove must have once dreamed that by now he would be leading Britain’s charge out of the European Union as prime minister, fighting off reluctance from remainers and high court challenges alike. Instead, after his well-publicised battle for the leadership with Boris Johnson – which neither won – he seemed destined to be barracking from the back benches. But a revival of fortunes has seen him become part of the committee of MPs who will scrutinise the Brexit process in parliament. | Michael Gove must have once dreamed that by now he would be leading Britain’s charge out of the European Union as prime minister, fighting off reluctance from remainers and high court challenges alike. Instead, after his well-publicised battle for the leadership with Boris Johnson – which neither won – he seemed destined to be barracking from the back benches. But a revival of fortunes has seen him become part of the committee of MPs who will scrutinise the Brexit process in parliament. |
| This week he will get his chance to explain to company bosses his views on how they should deal with leaving the EU at a conference organised by the Economist called Business after Brexit. In front of an audience of executives from middle-sized businesses, the event will consider whether the UK is about to enter a recession, the timetable for Brexit and what should happen during the negotiation period with the EU. | This week he will get his chance to explain to company bosses his views on how they should deal with leaving the EU at a conference organised by the Economist called Business after Brexit. In front of an audience of executives from middle-sized businesses, the event will consider whether the UK is about to enter a recession, the timetable for Brexit and what should happen during the negotiation period with the EU. |
| (And given that the conference is the same day as the US election, there is the awful possibility that there might need to be a quick follow-up event on Business after Trump.) | (And given that the conference is the same day as the US election, there is the awful possibility that there might need to be a quick follow-up event on Business after Trump.) |
| Meanwhile Gove will be talking in particular about the future trade deals necessary to boost UK exports. He is the final speaker at the conference, so let’s hope he has got his childcare arrangements sorted out. | Meanwhile Gove will be talking in particular about the future trade deals necessary to boost UK exports. He is the final speaker at the conference, so let’s hope he has got his childcare arrangements sorted out. |
| Halfords rides into a headwind | Halfords rides into a headwind |
| Halfords is pedalling hard, but not quite managing to stand still. The car parts and bicycles business is expected to report a near 10% drop in first-half profits on Thursday to around £42m, despite a strong performance from its cycling division in the peak seven-week period over the summer. The division was boosted by weak comparative figures last year, promotional activity, good weather conditions and the Rio Olympics. | Halfords is pedalling hard, but not quite managing to stand still. The car parts and bicycles business is expected to report a near 10% drop in first-half profits on Thursday to around £42m, despite a strong performance from its cycling division in the peak seven-week period over the summer. The division was boosted by weak comparative figures last year, promotional activity, good weather conditions and the Rio Olympics. |
| That strong performance might have continued in September – given the reasonable weather that month – but the overall outlook for the company seems less impressive. Analysts at Peel Hunt said: “Like-for-like sales growth is hard to come by here and cost inflation will not go away, so it is hard to see vast progress in profit terms.” | That strong performance might have continued in September – given the reasonable weather that month – but the overall outlook for the company seems less impressive. Analysts at Peel Hunt said: “Like-for-like sales growth is hard to come by here and cost inflation will not go away, so it is hard to see vast progress in profit terms.” |
| Competition is increasing and Berenberg analysts said: “Following two years of investment, management has targeted profit growth from 2018 and beyond. We remain cautious, however, given the low-growth markets in which Halfords operates, foreign exchange headwinds and cost pressure driven by its aspirations to grow into the premium cycling market.” | Competition is increasing and Berenberg analysts said: “Following two years of investment, management has targeted profit growth from 2018 and beyond. We remain cautious, however, given the low-growth markets in which Halfords operates, foreign exchange headwinds and cost pressure driven by its aspirations to grow into the premium cycling market.” |
| Tobacco takeover bid sets sector ablaze | Tobacco takeover bid sets sector ablaze |
| British American Tobacco (BAT) lit a spark under the tobacco sector last month by proposing a $47bn (£37bn) deal to take over US rival Reynolds. If it goes ahead, the takeover will create the world’s biggest listed cigarette company. The news rekindled talk of further consolidation in the sector and Imperial Brands, owner of Lambert & Butler and Gauloises, was again in the spotlight. While the US deal could rule out a BAT move for Imperial, analysts say it could be a target for another predator. | British American Tobacco (BAT) lit a spark under the tobacco sector last month by proposing a $47bn (£37bn) deal to take over US rival Reynolds. If it goes ahead, the takeover will create the world’s biggest listed cigarette company. The news rekindled talk of further consolidation in the sector and Imperial Brands, owner of Lambert & Butler and Gauloises, was again in the spotlight. While the US deal could rule out a BAT move for Imperial, analysts say it could be a target for another predator. |
| Analysts at Deutsche Bank recently pointed out that Japan Tobacco has aspirations to be the largest tobacco company in the world – so it might want to make a move in the wake of the BAT-Reynolds deal. Deutsche suggested a possible bid price of £51 a share compared to the current £38. On the other hand, Imperial might decide to go on the acquisition trail itself. | Analysts at Deutsche Bank recently pointed out that Japan Tobacco has aspirations to be the largest tobacco company in the world – so it might want to make a move in the wake of the BAT-Reynolds deal. Deutsche suggested a possible bid price of £51 a share compared to the current £38. On the other hand, Imperial might decide to go on the acquisition trail itself. |
| Investors will be keen to hear the company’s views when it reports full-year results on Tuesday, as well as any update on how the falling pound has affected US revenues, which account for more than a quarter of its business | Investors will be keen to hear the company’s views when it reports full-year results on Tuesday, as well as any update on how the falling pound has affected US revenues, which account for more than a quarter of its business |
| Its e-cigarette brands such as blu will also be in focus. In all, Deutsche Bank expects Imperial to report a rise in profits from £2.6bn to just over £3bn, with a 10% increase in the dividend. | Its e-cigarette brands such as blu will also be in focus. In all, Deutsche Bank expects Imperial to report a rise in profits from £2.6bn to just over £3bn, with a 10% increase in the dividend. |