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Election Day Weather Not Expected to Hurt Voter Turnout Election Day Weather Not Expected to Hurt Voter Turnout
(about 20 hours later)
If any events are likely to affect voter turnout on Election Day, the weather won’t be one of them. Cold and rain are predicted in some key states on Tuesday, but nationwide the weather is expected to be mild enough to have little impact, forecasters say.If any events are likely to affect voter turnout on Election Day, the weather won’t be one of them. Cold and rain are predicted in some key states on Tuesday, but nationwide the weather is expected to be mild enough to have little impact, forecasters say.
Though a federal judge extended Florida’s voter registration deadline because of the effects of Hurricane Matthew in October, so far the run-up to Election Day has escaped any major disruption like that from Hurricane Sandy, which threw the final week of the 2012 race into uncertainty over the status of polling places in the Northeast and the prospect of displaced voters. President Obama and Mitt Romney also rescheduled or canceled campaign appearances. Greg Carbin, the forecast operations branch chief at the Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said on Tuesday that he saw nothing in the forecast to deter anyone from going to the polls.
The weather this year is similar to what it was in 2008, when fair skies and little rain were predicted in some of the places up for grabs as Mr. Obama held a narrow lead in most polls. “So a very mild Election Day for 2016 across much of the nation,” he said in a telephone interview.
Greg Carbin, the forecast operations branch chief at the Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said on Monday that he saw nothing in the forecast for Tuesday to deter anyone from voting. Temperatures will be above normal highs for this time of year in most of the United States. On Election Day in 2012, the average temperature nationwide was about 48 degrees, and it was 53 degrees in 2008, according to Mr. Carbin’s survey of temperatures on all the Election Days since 1900.
“Right now the forecast looks like you do not have a weather excuse,” he said in a telephone interview. “There are plenty of other excuses, but as far as the weather goes, it is as tranquil as you will see in much of the nation.” But there will be small pockets of rain in some states, including Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Arkansas, he added. Michigan and Ohio could also get some rain on Tuesday, forecasts show.
“That wouldn’t necessarily keep people from going out, or staying in line,” he said. “If you are hit with rain, it is probably going to brief.”
“There is no winter weather anywhere,” Mr. Carbin said of the continental United States.
Alaska’s forecast calls for rain and ice, and temperatures as low as 31 degrees.
Forecasters have been watching the battleground states in particular. The weather this year is similar to what it was in 2008, when fair skies and little rain were predicted in some of the places up for grabs as President Obama held a narrow lead in most polls.
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy threw the final week of the race into turmoil because of the uncertain status of polling places in the Northeast and the prospect of displaced voters.
But there was no similar major disruption this year, although a federal judge extended Florida’s voter registration deadline because of Hurricane Matthew in October.
Weather has long been a factor in trying to predict election outcomes because only the most determined Americans will slog through heavy snow or stand in lines in relentless rain to vote. Researchers have studied whether some groups of voters are more susceptible to decisions about weather than others.Weather has long been a factor in trying to predict election outcomes because only the most determined Americans will slog through heavy snow or stand in lines in relentless rain to vote. Researchers have studied whether some groups of voters are more susceptible to decisions about weather than others.
An often-cited saying in voter turnout analysis is that “Republicans should pray for rain.” The suggestion is that Democratic voters tend to be less affluent than Republicans and tend to live in larger cities, where they depend on public transportation and vote in precincts that are prone to long lines, as a Times analysis of weather during the 2008 election reported.An often-cited saying in voter turnout analysis is that “Republicans should pray for rain.” The suggestion is that Democratic voters tend to be less affluent than Republicans and tend to live in larger cities, where they depend on public transportation and vote in precincts that are prone to long lines, as a Times analysis of weather during the 2008 election reported.
But this year, the Eastern United States will be “high and dry,” Mr. Carbin said, with temperatures slightly below normal along the Eastern Seaboard — from the 60s or 70s in Florida to the 30s in Maine — with no precipitation along the East Coast.
West of the Appalachian Mountains, above-normal temperatures will blanket the rest of the country, although they will be colder in higher elevations like the Rockies, he said.
Temperatures in the mid-30s will hit the Northern Plains and rise to the 60s along the Gulf Coast, Mr. Carbin said, adding, “Generally above-normal conditions across the bulk of the nation.”
A weak cold front will move across the middle Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley during the day, and there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Michigan-Indiana area, southwest to Texas and Louisiana, he said.
Election Day weather can be tracked here:Election Day weather can be tracked here:
Here are forecasts based on an AccuWeather report on battleground states. Here are predictions based on an AccuWeather report on battleground states.
■ Maine and New Hampshire: Temperatures will be at or below freezing early in the morning and then rebound to highs mostly in the 50s, which is slightly above normal.■ Maine and New Hampshire: Temperatures will be at or below freezing early in the morning and then rebound to highs mostly in the 50s, which is slightly above normal.
■ Pennsylvania: Temperatures in the 30s in some parts of the state early on Tuesday will rise to the 60s statewide in the afternoon, and they will be above normal in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Harrisburg.■ Pennsylvania: Temperatures in the 30s in some parts of the state early on Tuesday will rise to the 60s statewide in the afternoon, and they will be above normal in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Harrisburg.
■ Ohio and Michigan: A few showers will take place in the morning in Michigan and later in the day in Ohio. Columbus and Cleveland will remain dry until the late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan to the upper 60s along the Ohio River.■ Ohio and Michigan: A few showers will take place in the morning in Michigan and later in the day in Ohio. Columbus and Cleveland will remain dry until the late afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan to the upper 60s along the Ohio River.
■ North Carolina: Temperatures will be in the 30s and lower 40s early in the day, particularly in Raleigh. Afternoon temperatures will rise to the middle 60s and low 70s.■ North Carolina: Temperatures will be in the 30s and lower 40s early in the day, particularly in Raleigh. Afternoon temperatures will rise to the middle 60s and low 70s.
■ Georgia and Florida: A light and brief shower will dampen Florida’s coast, and the morning will be colder than normal in northeastern Georgia. But afternoon temperatures throughout these two states will be near to slightly above normal: They will range from the lower 70s in Atlanta to the lower 80s in Tampa, Orlando and Miami.■ Georgia and Florida: A light and brief shower will dampen Florida’s coast, and the morning will be colder than normal in northeastern Georgia. But afternoon temperatures throughout these two states will be near to slightly above normal: They will range from the lower 70s in Atlanta to the lower 80s in Tampa, Orlando and Miami.
■ Iowa: Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal, with highs to the upper 50s.■ Iowa: Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal, with highs to the upper 50s.
■ Colorado, Arizona and Nevada: High temperatures will be near or above average for this time of year, ranging from the 60s in Denver to near 80 degrees in Las Vegas. Phoenix is in store for temperatures of around 90.■ Colorado, Arizona and Nevada: High temperatures will be near or above average for this time of year, ranging from the 60s in Denver to near 80 degrees in Las Vegas. Phoenix is in store for temperatures of around 90.
■ New Mexico: Temperatures will hold to the 50s in the higher elevations and to the 60s elsewhere.■ New Mexico: Temperatures will hold to the 50s in the higher elevations and to the 60s elsewhere.