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Presidential Election: Voters Decide Between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Presidential Election: Voters Decide Between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
(35 minutes later)
Election Day is here at last. America is set to decide between Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump.Election Day is here at last. America is set to decide between Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump.
But the long, unusual and often ugly 2016 presidential campaign has been about the country’s changing demographics and the shifting coalitions of the two major parties as much as about the two main candidates.But the long, unusual and often ugly 2016 presidential campaign has been about the country’s changing demographics and the shifting coalitions of the two major parties as much as about the two main candidates.
Here is what to look for from the voters, who now get their say.Here is what to look for from the voters, who now get their say.
The changing nature of the presidential map can be deduced from where Mrs. Clinton went on Monday. She was assured enough of her prospects for winning Florida, a state that George W. Bush won twice, to not return to one of the biggest battlegrounds, but she held her second event in four days in Michigan, a state no Republican has won since 1988. The changing nature of the presidential map can be deduced from where Mrs. Clinton went on Monday. She was assured enough of her prospects for winning Florida, a state that George W. Bush won twice, to not return to the biggest battleground of them all, but she held her second event in four days in Michigan, a state no Republican has won since 1988.
Mrs. Clinton’s aides express confidence that the results will go their way, in large part because of their optimism about Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia, but they are less bullish about their prospects in Michigan and states like Iowa and Ohio. It is a striking turnabout given how rooted Democrats once were in the heavily unionized Midwest and how much they struggled in the South and parts of the West.Mrs. Clinton’s aides express confidence that the results will go their way, in large part because of their optimism about Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia, but they are less bullish about their prospects in Michigan and states like Iowa and Ohio. It is a striking turnabout given how rooted Democrats once were in the heavily unionized Midwest and how much they struggled in the South and parts of the West.
But they have effectively swapped much of their working-class white base for the so-called rising demographic of millennials, nonwhite voters and suburbanites clustered near cities such as Denver, Miami, Las Vegas and Washington.But they have effectively swapped much of their working-class white base for the so-called rising demographic of millennials, nonwhite voters and suburbanites clustered near cities such as Denver, Miami, Las Vegas and Washington.
From watching these communities, it will become clear on Tuesday why Mrs. Clinton’s party enjoys a structural advantage in the Electoral College. But this election may also hasten the day when more of the heartland becomes out of reach, illustrating what Democrats lost as much as what they gained.From watching these communities, it will become clear on Tuesday why Mrs. Clinton’s party enjoys a structural advantage in the Electoral College. But this election may also hasten the day when more of the heartland becomes out of reach, illustrating what Democrats lost as much as what they gained.
Mrs. Clinton could sweep away the gender barrier from the White House, yet her history-making potential has not received the attention that Mr. Obama’s candidacy did when he broke the presidential color line eight years ago.Mrs. Clinton could sweep away the gender barrier from the White House, yet her history-making potential has not received the attention that Mr. Obama’s candidacy did when he broke the presidential color line eight years ago.
But that is not to say her potential to be America’s first female president, along with the boorish comments that Mr. Trump has made about women, have not captured the attention of many voters. In every battleground state, the share of women as a percentage of the overall electorate has been higher in early voting than it was in the 2012 election.But that is not to say her potential to be America’s first female president, along with the boorish comments that Mr. Trump has made about women, have not captured the attention of many voters. In every battleground state, the share of women as a percentage of the overall electorate has been higher in early voting than it was in the 2012 election.
Women, especially those with college degrees, have been galvanized this year. If they continue with their trend in the early vote and outperform their turnout from 2012, Mr. Trump could face a punishing defeat.Women, especially those with college degrees, have been galvanized this year. If they continue with their trend in the early vote and outperform their turnout from 2012, Mr. Trump could face a punishing defeat.
Mr. Trump has one real path to the presidency: run up the score among white voters without a college degree enough to compensate for his losses among well-educated and nonwhite voters.Mr. Trump has one real path to the presidency: run up the score among white voters without a college degree enough to compensate for his losses among well-educated and nonwhite voters.
National surveys suggest Mr. Trump is poised to fare far better among white voters without a degree than Mr. Romney did four years ago, even if the same surveys show Mrs. Clinton in the lead. He leads that group by an average of 30 points in recent national surveys, compared to Mr. Romney’s 23-point edge in 2012.National surveys suggest Mr. Trump is poised to fare far better among white voters without a degree than Mr. Romney did four years ago, even if the same surveys show Mrs. Clinton in the lead. He leads that group by an average of 30 points in recent national surveys, compared to Mr. Romney’s 23-point edge in 2012.
If the polls and reporting are correct, Mr. Trump could make big gains in places that have been Democratic strongholds for generations, like Scranton, Pa.; Youngstown, Ohio; or Duluth, Minn.If the polls and reporting are correct, Mr. Trump could make big gains in places that have been Democratic strongholds for generations, like Scranton, Pa.; Youngstown, Ohio; or Duluth, Minn.
Mr. Trump excelled in these areas in the Republican primary. The old bastions of the industrial left in Britain voted resoundingly to leave the European Union this year.Mr. Trump excelled in these areas in the Republican primary. The old bastions of the industrial left in Britain voted resoundingly to leave the European Union this year.
The nation’s growing Hispanic population has been considered something of a sleeping giant in electoral politics.The nation’s growing Hispanic population has been considered something of a sleeping giant in electoral politics.
Early voting data indicate that it’s now awake.Early voting data indicate that it’s now awake.
The Hispanic turnout will be far higher than it was in 2012: The number of Hispanics who voted early in Florida this year is about the same as the total number that voted four years ago. The same story holds in heavily Hispanic areas across the country, whether the Latino neighborhoods of Las Vegas or the Texas counties along the Rio Grande.The Hispanic turnout will be far higher than it was in 2012: The number of Hispanics who voted early in Florida this year is about the same as the total number that voted four years ago. The same story holds in heavily Hispanic areas across the country, whether the Latino neighborhoods of Las Vegas or the Texas counties along the Rio Grande.
Mrs. Clinton’s exact margin among Hispanic voters could prove just as important. She will probably win Latino voters by an even wider margin than Mr. Obama did, but polls have not always been clear on just how much she might beat Mr. Obama’s 2012 results. He won Latino voters by a margin of 71 percent to 27 percent, according to exit polls.Mrs. Clinton’s exact margin among Hispanic voters could prove just as important. She will probably win Latino voters by an even wider margin than Mr. Obama did, but polls have not always been clear on just how much she might beat Mr. Obama’s 2012 results. He won Latino voters by a margin of 71 percent to 27 percent, according to exit polls.
The Latino vote has the best shot of deciding the election in Florida, where Hispanic voters represent a well-above-average share of the population. Mr. Trump does not have a credible path to the presidency without the state’s 29 electoral votes.The Latino vote has the best shot of deciding the election in Florida, where Hispanic voters represent a well-above-average share of the population. Mr. Trump does not have a credible path to the presidency without the state’s 29 electoral votes.
Chester County, Pa.: Mitt Romney won this county outside Philadelphia four years ago, even as he lost the state by five points to Mr. Obama. If Mr. Trump is defeated in this traditionally Republican community, it will portend an even more decisive defeat elsewhere in southeastern Pennsylvania — and doom his chances to win statewide. Chester County, Pa.: This is the one suburban Philadelphia county where Mitt Romney won four years ago, even as he lost the state by five points to Mr. Obama. If Mr. Trump is defeated in this traditionally Republican community, it will portend an even more decisive defeat elsewhere in southeastern Pennsylvania — and doom his chances to win statewide.
Orange County, Fla: Orlando, the Central Florida city best known as a Disney hub, was a true battleground in 2004: John Kerry won the surrounding county by fewer than 1,000 votes. Today, thanks to an influx of young voters and migrants from Puerto Rico, this community is part of the Democratic firewall that Mrs. Clinton hopes will deny Mr. Trump Florida and the presidency. No other locality on the American political map may speak as loudly about the Republican Party’s demographic challenges.Orange County, Fla: Orlando, the Central Florida city best known as a Disney hub, was a true battleground in 2004: John Kerry won the surrounding county by fewer than 1,000 votes. Today, thanks to an influx of young voters and migrants from Puerto Rico, this community is part of the Democratic firewall that Mrs. Clinton hopes will deny Mr. Trump Florida and the presidency. No other locality on the American political map may speak as loudly about the Republican Party’s demographic challenges.
Oakland County, Mich: How to know if Mr. Trump can score an upset in Michigan? Watch this prosperous suburb of Detroit closely. Mr. Romney, who grew up in the county, lost it by eight points four years ago. If Mr. Trump cannot reduce that deficit, he will be hard-pressed to carry the state, no matter how much he resonates with blue-collar whites.Oakland County, Mich: How to know if Mr. Trump can score an upset in Michigan? Watch this prosperous suburb of Detroit closely. Mr. Romney, who grew up in the county, lost it by eight points four years ago. If Mr. Trump cannot reduce that deficit, he will be hard-pressed to carry the state, no matter how much he resonates with blue-collar whites.
Maricopa County, Ariz: The decision by the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to continue looking into Mrs. Clinton’s email server issue may have put Arizona out of reach. But if she is to have a chance there it will be because of the large Hispanic turnout in this, the most populous county in the state. It is worth watching how much Mrs. Clinton can cut into the 12-point margin that Mr. Romney enjoyed in the county four years ago. Given the surge in Latino registration and early voting, Republicans may be hard-pressed to replicate that number in the near future.Maricopa County, Ariz: The decision by the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to continue looking into Mrs. Clinton’s email server issue may have put Arizona out of reach. But if she is to have a chance there it will be because of the large Hispanic turnout in this, the most populous county in the state. It is worth watching how much Mrs. Clinton can cut into the 12-point margin that Mr. Romney enjoyed in the county four years ago. Given the surge in Latino registration and early voting, Republicans may be hard-pressed to replicate that number in the near future.
Live Coverage Follow the candidates and get on-the-ground reporting and photographs from around the country.Live Coverage Follow the candidates and get on-the-ground reporting and photographs from around the country.
Election Results Race projections and real-time results of the presidential race and the fight for control of Congress.Election Results Race projections and real-time results of the presidential race and the fight for control of Congress.
Live Chat Join Times reporters for a real-time updates and analysis.Live Chat Join Times reporters for a real-time updates and analysis.
Social Media Follow us on Twitter at @nytpolitics. Get updates and interviews on Facebook at Facebook.com/nytpolitics.Social Media Follow us on Twitter at @nytpolitics. Get updates and interviews on Facebook at Facebook.com/nytpolitics.