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S&P says 'uncertainty' remains about 'inexperienced' Trump – live S&P says 'uncertainty' remains about 'inexperienced' Trump – live
(35 minutes later)
3.21am GMT
03:21
SUMMARY
OK, the stock markets have proceeded magisterially today despite a background of major tectonic shifts in the financial landscape.
Here are the main points:
3.08am GMT
03:08
More on the implications for Asia’s big emerging economies – and Australia.
Saul Eslake, the independent economist, has warned about the implications for Asutralia if Trump were to start a trade war with China and undermine the Fed, pushing the US dollar down.
[This would create] a great deal of uncertainty in our part of the world, about the geopolitical environment by making a less wholesome commitment to longstanding US alliances with countries like South Korea and Japan ... Those things, particulary a trade war with China, would be highly negative for Australia.
Saul Eslake: the Australian economy will be negatively impacted if @realDonaldTrump starts a trade war with China https://t.co/gvPVUtJ8pM
2.55am GMT2.55am GMT
02:5502:55
Like every measure in the last 24 hours, the US dollar has been topsy-turvy. The chance of a Fed rate cut dropped to 30% on Wednesday but is now more than 80%, according to IG.Like every measure in the last 24 hours, the US dollar has been topsy-turvy. The chance of a Fed rate cut dropped to 30% on Wednesday but is now more than 80%, according to IG.
#Fed to proceed with December U.S. rate rise despite #Trump upset: @ReutersPolls https://t.co/Jt0UCpNHT5#Fed to proceed with December U.S. rate rise despite #Trump upset: @ReutersPolls https://t.co/Jt0UCpNHT5
The dollar index against major currencies recovered from 95.885 on Wednesday to around 98.448 on Thursday.The dollar index against major currencies recovered from 95.885 on Wednesday to around 98.448 on Thursday.
But the longer-term outlook is uncertain as Trump pushes his protectionist agenda (see below). Tim Condon, an Singapore-based economist at ING, told Reuters:But the longer-term outlook is uncertain as Trump pushes his protectionist agenda (see below). Tim Condon, an Singapore-based economist at ING, told Reuters:
We expect a Trump Treasury to elevate the importance of the bilateral trade surplus with the US in identifying currency manipulators and intensify pressure on trade partners to allow currencies to appreciate.We expect a Trump Treasury to elevate the importance of the bilateral trade surplus with the US in identifying currency manipulators and intensify pressure on trade partners to allow currencies to appreciate.
2.39am GMT2.39am GMT
02:3902:39
Yuan fixed at lowest point since 2010Yuan fixed at lowest point since 2010
The yuan has been fixed today at 6.7885 – its lowest point since September 2010.The yuan has been fixed today at 6.7885 – its lowest point since September 2010.
Bearing in mind that Trump labelled China a “currency manipulator” on his way to winning the presidency, the issue could prove to be a flashpoint between the two countries.Bearing in mind that Trump labelled China a “currency manipulator” on his way to winning the presidency, the issue could prove to be a flashpoint between the two countries.
China has pushed the value of its currency steadily downwards in the past year – very clumsily to begin with, sparking last year’s mini-stock market crash – as it tries to export its way out of slowing economic growth.China has pushed the value of its currency steadily downwards in the past year – very clumsily to begin with, sparking last year’s mini-stock market crash – as it tries to export its way out of slowing economic growth.
Chart: Renminbi (USD/CNY) 1-month forward rate - pic.twitter.com/uFsDKHRJmuChart: Renminbi (USD/CNY) 1-month forward rate - pic.twitter.com/uFsDKHRJmu
But everyone else has got the same idea (including Abe of course). The US dollar is holding its gains on Thursday and was sitting at 105.32 yen, up from below 102 on Wednesday. But for Trump’s manufacturing recovery to work you expect that he will want it come down.But everyone else has got the same idea (including Abe of course). The US dollar is holding its gains on Thursday and was sitting at 105.32 yen, up from below 102 on Wednesday. But for Trump’s manufacturing recovery to work you expect that he will want it come down.
2.14am GMT2.14am GMT
02:1402:14
Shinzo Abe 'to meet Trump on 17 November' – official saysShinzo Abe 'to meet Trump on 17 November' – official says
The Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is planning to meet the US president-elect in New York on 17 November, a Japanese government official has said.The Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is planning to meet the US president-elect in New York on 17 November, a Japanese government official has said.
Reuters reports that the pair had “talked by telephone and confirmed close cooperation between their two nations”.Reuters reports that the pair had “talked by telephone and confirmed close cooperation between their two nations”.
It might be interesting to hear what they have to say to each other about trade and the economy. Like China, Japan has a lot to be worried about. Trump is an avowed opponent of the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal which would be a huge blow for Abe’s plans to boost his country’s huge manufacturing sector.It might be interesting to hear what they have to say to each other about trade and the economy. Like China, Japan has a lot to be worried about. Trump is an avowed opponent of the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal which would be a huge blow for Abe’s plans to boost his country’s huge manufacturing sector.
1.54am GMT1.54am GMT
01:5401:54
The commodities market is looking slightly different to stocks today.The commodities market is looking slightly different to stocks today.
While equities are surging ahead, the price of oil has dropped amid concerns about the impact of Trump on global trade.While equities are surging ahead, the price of oil has dropped amid concerns about the impact of Trump on global trade.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 20c at $45.07 a barrel at 0131 GMT on Thursday. The more widely traded Brent was at $46.29 per barrel, down 7% from the last close.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 20c at $45.07 a barrel at 0131 GMT on Thursday. The more widely traded Brent was at $46.29 per barrel, down 7% from the last close.
Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of the IHS Markit think tank, told Reuters:Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of the IHS Markit think tank, told Reuters:
The outcome of the U.S. election adds to the challenges for the oil exporters because it will likely lead to weaker economic growth in an already fragile global economy. And that means additional pressure on oil demand.The outcome of the U.S. election adds to the challenges for the oil exporters because it will likely lead to weaker economic growth in an already fragile global economy. And that means additional pressure on oil demand.
Gold meanwhile dipped overnight $1,278.25 an ounce as risk receded in the markets. It rose nearly 5% to $1,337.40 on Wednesday before tumbling back down as US markets reacted positively to the Trump win.Gold meanwhile dipped overnight $1,278.25 an ounce as risk receded in the markets. It rose nearly 5% to $1,337.40 on Wednesday before tumbling back down as US markets reacted positively to the Trump win.
1.31am GMT1.31am GMT
01:3101:31
S&P affirms US's AA+/A-1+ sovereign ratingS&P affirms US's AA+/A-1+ sovereign rating
Reuters reports that S&P, the ratings agency, has affirmed the country’s investment-grade AA+/A-1+ sovereign rating on Wednesday while maintaining its stable outlook.Reuters reports that S&P, the ratings agency, has affirmed the country’s investment-grade AA+/A-1+ sovereign rating on Wednesday while maintaining its stable outlook.
It welcomed calls for unity from all sides of US politics in the wake of Trump’s win but “high general government debt and increased uncertainty” meant there it could not restore the coveted AAA rating it removed in 2011.It welcomed calls for unity from all sides of US politics in the wake of Trump’s win but “high general government debt and increased uncertainty” meant there it could not restore the coveted AAA rating it removed in 2011.
Its analysis feels like a good summary of market sentiment:Its analysis feels like a good summary of market sentiment:
Given Mr Trump’s lack of experience in public office, and his win as a political outsider without an established policy track record, there is a degree of uncertainty over policy formulation and execution. However, there is a difference between campaign rhetoric and concrete policy proposals and execution once in office. We await further information on the formation of a cabinet and policy proposals, particularly once the president-elect assumes office.Given Mr Trump’s lack of experience in public office, and his win as a political outsider without an established policy track record, there is a degree of uncertainty over policy formulation and execution. However, there is a difference between campaign rhetoric and concrete policy proposals and execution once in office. We await further information on the formation of a cabinet and policy proposals, particularly once the president-elect assumes office.
Alongside Mr. Trump’s victory, the Senate remains in Republican hands, as does the House of Representatives. Hence, the president-elect and the Republicans have a mandate for and ability to effect policy change more easily than with a more divided government in recent years.Alongside Mr. Trump’s victory, the Senate remains in Republican hands, as does the House of Representatives. Hence, the president-elect and the Republicans have a mandate for and ability to effect policy change more easily than with a more divided government in recent years.
1.14am GMT1.14am GMT
01:1401:14
Trading has been underway for an hour now in Japan and Korea. Here’s where the main indexes stand:Trading has been underway for an hour now in Japan and Korea. Here’s where the main indexes stand:
The yen, which gained so much during yesterday’s turmoil, fell sharply overnight as the US dollar recovered. It’s now at 105.6740, close to a four-month high. The pound and the euro are both down slightly against the greenback however, as the pattern from yesterday is reversed.The yen, which gained so much during yesterday’s turmoil, fell sharply overnight as the US dollar recovered. It’s now at 105.6740, close to a four-month high. The pound and the euro are both down slightly against the greenback however, as the pattern from yesterday is reversed.
Imre Speizer, an economist at Westpac in Australia, said:Imre Speizer, an economist at Westpac in Australia, said:
An astonishing turnaround in risk appetite pushed equities and Treasury yields higher. Markets appeared to reassess the economic outlook under Trump, towards one of higher growth and higher inflation.An astonishing turnaround in risk appetite pushed equities and Treasury yields higher. Markets appeared to reassess the economic outlook under Trump, towards one of higher growth and higher inflation.
1.02am GMT1.02am GMT
01:0201:02
New Zealand cuts rates to record lowNew Zealand cuts rates to record low
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hasn’t waited around to see what a Trump presidency might mean for US monetary policy – it cut its base rate 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75% this morning.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hasn’t waited around to see what a Trump presidency might mean for US monetary policy – it cut its base rate 25 basis points to a record low of 1.75% this morning.
The move was expected and is the third cut this year. It’s driven partly by a need to get the NZ dollar down to help the country’s huge dairy industry.The move was expected and is the third cut this year. It’s driven partly by a need to get the NZ dollar down to help the country’s huge dairy industry.
Governor Graeme Wheeler said the rate-setters had met on Thursday to discuss whether the cut was still needed in the wake of Trump’s win. They decided it was but pushed back on expectations of yet another reduction soon. He said:Governor Graeme Wheeler said the rate-setters had met on Thursday to discuss whether the cut was still needed in the wake of Trump’s win. They decided it was but pushed back on expectations of yet another reduction soon. He said:
We think at this stage that we won’t need another cut. The economy is doing well and you certainly wouldn’t want to create excessive volatility in respect of interest rates and output in the exchange rate by surprising the market with interest rate adjustments.We think at this stage that we won’t need another cut. The economy is doing well and you certainly wouldn’t want to create excessive volatility in respect of interest rates and output in the exchange rate by surprising the market with interest rate adjustments.
12.46am GMT12.46am GMT
00:4600:46
Volatility 'fear index' falls 36% in three daysVolatility 'fear index' falls 36% in three days
This is an interesting chart. Wednesday saw one of the biggest drops in volatility ever recorded as the markets quickly put their concerns behind them and went into risk-on mode.This is an interesting chart. Wednesday saw one of the biggest drops in volatility ever recorded as the markets quickly put their concerns behind them and went into risk-on mode.
Volatility Index has fallen 36% thus far this week, the 3rd largest 3-day decline in history (more than post-Brexit, now 5th on list) $VIX pic.twitter.com/tmbm2YyIekVolatility Index has fallen 36% thus far this week, the 3rd largest 3-day decline in history (more than post-Brexit, now 5th on list) $VIX pic.twitter.com/tmbm2YyIek
12.40am GMT12.40am GMT
00:4000:40
But as with Australia, it’s not clear where this is going. A Trump presidency promises a more aggressive US trading position which the markets have implicitly welcomed. But not everyone can be winners here, can they?But as with Australia, it’s not clear where this is going. A Trump presidency promises a more aggressive US trading position which the markets have implicitly welcomed. But not everyone can be winners here, can they?
China is the obvious loser in Asia if, let’s say, Trump tries to force Apple to make its iPhones in the US instead of Shenzhen and Shangahi.China is the obvious loser in Asia if, let’s say, Trump tries to force Apple to make its iPhones in the US instead of Shenzhen and Shangahi.
Here’s a snippet from Larry Elliott’s piece:Here’s a snippet from Larry Elliott’s piece:
Beijing would have two choices. It might take an emollient line, promising to increase direct investment into the US as a way of supporting Trump’s attempt to rebuild the American economy.Beijing would have two choices. It might take an emollient line, promising to increase direct investment into the US as a way of supporting Trump’s attempt to rebuild the American economy.
More likely, though, China would adopt an aggressive, nationalistic stance. Beijing is not without economic weapons, since it has amassed a vast stock of US Treasury bonds in recent years, the proceeds of its trade surplus with America. Beijing could meet Trump’s threat with one of its own: to dump US assets. A tit-for-tat trade war, in which China puts tariffs on US exports, could not be ruled out either.More likely, though, China would adopt an aggressive, nationalistic stance. Beijing is not without economic weapons, since it has amassed a vast stock of US Treasury bonds in recent years, the proceeds of its trade surplus with America. Beijing could meet Trump’s threat with one of its own: to dump US assets. A tit-for-tat trade war, in which China puts tariffs on US exports, could not be ruled out either.
But as Chris Weston from IG says in his morning note, these concerns appear for another day as markets focus on the upside:But as Chris Weston from IG says in his morning note, these concerns appear for another day as markets focus on the upside:
Like many I had been concerned market participants would be worried about Trump’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and a number of their key trade partners (such as China and Japan), but again this concern is for another time it seems.Like many I had been concerned market participants would be worried about Trump’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and a number of their key trade partners (such as China and Japan), but again this concern is for another time it seems.
12.23am GMT12.23am GMT
00:2300:23
Japanese stocks up 6%Japanese stocks up 6%
The market in Japan has opened very strongly with the Nikkei rising more than 6%, reversing the huge losses of Wednesday.The market in Japan has opened very strongly with the Nikkei rising more than 6%, reversing the huge losses of Wednesday.
The Kospi in Seoul is also up.The Kospi in Seoul is also up.
TOKYO'S NIKKEI SHARE AVERAGE EXTENDS GAINS, UP 6.00 PCTTOKYO'S NIKKEI SHARE AVERAGE EXTENDS GAINS, UP 6.00 PCT
#JAPAN: Nikkei 225 cruises past 17,000, closing in on 6 percent gains early session $NKY $USDJPY#JAPAN: Nikkei 225 cruises past 17,000, closing in on 6 percent gains early session $NKY $USDJPY
12.13am GMT12.13am GMT
00:1300:13
The Aussie dollar has risen this morning from overnight lows of below US76c as the markets yo-yoed around during US election night.The Aussie dollar has risen this morning from overnight lows of below US76c as the markets yo-yoed around during US election night.
The Aussie is trading at US76.50c this morning.The Aussie is trading at US76.50c this morning.
But experts say it’s hard to say where it will go from here given the mixed bag of signals out of a Trump win.But experts say it’s hard to say where it will go from here given the mixed bag of signals out of a Trump win.
Here’s Greg McKenna writing at axitrader.com:Here’s Greg McKenna writing at axitrader.com:
I think if Trump delivers on his campaign promises then we face a more volatile global economic and geopolitical environment in the years ahead ... For the Aussie that means it benefits from the reflationary aspects of Trumponomics, but could suffer from the rise in US bonds, and likely Fed hike in December if Australian interest rate markets don’t go with those moves higher.I think if Trump delivers on his campaign promises then we face a more volatile global economic and geopolitical environment in the years ahead ... For the Aussie that means it benefits from the reflationary aspects of Trumponomics, but could suffer from the rise in US bonds, and likely Fed hike in December if Australian interest rate markets don’t go with those moves higher.
12.01am GMT12.01am GMT
00:0100:01
Australian shares up nearly 3%Australian shares up nearly 3%
Huge lead from Australia this morning. The ASX/S&P200 is up nearly 3% and resource and financial stocks have led the way. The iron ore producer Fortescue is the top riser at well over 10.6% but Macquarie and BHP have also shown big gains.Huge lead from Australia this morning. The ASX/S&P200 is up nearly 3% and resource and financial stocks have led the way. The iron ore producer Fortescue is the top riser at well over 10.6% but Macquarie and BHP have also shown big gains.
My colleague Melissa Davey has just filed this report on the morning’s surge.My colleague Melissa Davey has just filed this report on the morning’s surge.
Meanwhile, Chris Weston at IG in Melbourne has this:Meanwhile, Chris Weston at IG in Melbourne has this:
The combination of huge gains in materials, fiscals and energy should push the ASX 200 3.4%, which if it closes at that level would be the strongest gain since 6 October 2011The combination of huge gains in materials, fiscals and energy should push the ASX 200 3.4%, which if it closes at that level would be the strongest gain since 6 October 2011
Incredible gains this morning. Many were predicting further losses after Trump was elected. Will this last? #ASX200Incredible gains this morning. Many were predicting further losses after Trump was elected. Will this last? #ASX200
There's a 'Trump turnaround' in 1st hour of trade on the Australian share market #ASX200 +3.0% to 5,311. $BHP +8.6% $BLS +12.0% @ABCNews24There's a 'Trump turnaround' in 1st hour of trade on the Australian share market #ASX200 +3.0% to 5,311. $BHP +8.6% $BLS +12.0% @ABCNews24
11.37pm GMT11.37pm GMT
23:3723:37
Hello and welcome to the markets live blog from Sydney.Hello and welcome to the markets live blog from Sydney.
Well, that didn’t turn out quite how it was expected to – on a number of levels. The surprise of Trump’s win looked like leading to market meltdown across the world. But it didn’t, thanks in part it seems to Trump’s conciliatory speech, proving that investors hate uncertainty more than anything. The promise of a smooth handover of power, a united Congress, tax cuts and a huge infrastructure spending boost was enough to turn red screens green.Well, that didn’t turn out quite how it was expected to – on a number of levels. The surprise of Trump’s win looked like leading to market meltdown across the world. But it didn’t, thanks in part it seems to Trump’s conciliatory speech, proving that investors hate uncertainty more than anything. The promise of a smooth handover of power, a united Congress, tax cuts and a huge infrastructure spending boost was enough to turn red screens green.
Here’s how they finished in the US and EuropeHere’s how they finished in the US and Europe
In Australia the market has already taken that lead and opened up by nearly 3%. Can it be sustained?In Australia the market has already taken that lead and opened up by nearly 3%. Can it be sustained?
Here’s one informed verdict. Michael McCarthy at CMC Markets in Sydney, said:Here’s one informed verdict. Michael McCarthy at CMC Markets in Sydney, said:
The stunning turn in sentiment suggests there is now a consensus building that much of the policy announced during the campaign was a sales pitch rather than a commitment to act. Investors ignored the potential for damage to international trade and growth prospects and focussed on Republican control of both houses of Congress as well as the White House. This offers the prospect of reform that could stimulate the US economy. However, last night’s action may be as good as it gets for markets for some time. Policy uncertainty and populist agendas rarely lead to sustainable economic growth.The stunning turn in sentiment suggests there is now a consensus building that much of the policy announced during the campaign was a sales pitch rather than a commitment to act. Investors ignored the potential for damage to international trade and growth prospects and focussed on Republican control of both houses of Congress as well as the White House. This offers the prospect of reform that could stimulate the US economy. However, last night’s action may be as good as it gets for markets for some time. Policy uncertainty and populist agendas rarely lead to sustainable economic growth.
There’s much to look at and talk about. But in the meantime start with our economics editor Larry Elliott’s examination of what a Trump win might mean for the global economy.There’s much to look at and talk about. But in the meantime start with our economics editor Larry Elliott’s examination of what a Trump win might mean for the global economy.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.49pm GMTat 11.49pm GMT