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| The Observer view on Donald Trump’s election victory | The Observer view on Donald Trump’s election victory |
| (about 13 hours later) | |
| It is no use pretending. Donald Trump’s presidential election victory is a disaster for the United States and the world. It is, at least in part, a victory for prejudice and fear, for ignorance and spite. It represents the triumph of economic nationalism and introspection over internationalism and the global good. It is a victory built on fabrications. Because of this, Trumpism will ultimately fail, confounded by its contradictions and its immorality. It will be defeated. But correcting this deformation will not be easy. It will take time and the damage will be considerable. | It is no use pretending. Donald Trump’s presidential election victory is a disaster for the United States and the world. It is, at least in part, a victory for prejudice and fear, for ignorance and spite. It represents the triumph of economic nationalism and introspection over internationalism and the global good. It is a victory built on fabrications. Because of this, Trumpism will ultimately fail, confounded by its contradictions and its immorality. It will be defeated. But correcting this deformation will not be easy. It will take time and the damage will be considerable. |
| Many explanations have been offered for Hillary Clinton’s defeat last week. All have an element of truth. For some, she was an uncharismatic figure. The Democratic base was uninspired and many stayed at home. Doubts surrounded her past conduct, not least in respect of the Clinton Foundation. In many minds, she represented a discredited political establishment. There was about her candidacy an off-putting sense of entitlement. There was her husband’s inescapable, ambiguous legacy. And Clinton was a woman, reaching up to a place of power no woman has ever gone. A mostly unspoken misogyny undoubtedly played a part in her downfall. | Many explanations have been offered for Hillary Clinton’s defeat last week. All have an element of truth. For some, she was an uncharismatic figure. The Democratic base was uninspired and many stayed at home. Doubts surrounded her past conduct, not least in respect of the Clinton Foundation. In many minds, she represented a discredited political establishment. There was about her candidacy an off-putting sense of entitlement. There was her husband’s inescapable, ambiguous legacy. And Clinton was a woman, reaching up to a place of power no woman has ever gone. A mostly unspoken misogyny undoubtedly played a part in her downfall. |
| More broadly, the complacency of the Democratic party and America’s liberal left, too comfortable after eight safe years of Barack Obama, did Clinton a great disservice. The party and its elected representatives badly misread the mood of the nation. So, too, for the most part, did independent pollsters and the US media. They initially dismissed Trump as a clown and then proceeded, with honourable exceptions, to give him too easy a ride. | More broadly, the complacency of the Democratic party and America’s liberal left, too comfortable after eight safe years of Barack Obama, did Clinton a great disservice. The party and its elected representatives badly misread the mood of the nation. So, too, for the most part, did independent pollsters and the US media. They initially dismissed Trump as a clown and then proceeded, with honourable exceptions, to give him too easy a ride. |
| All these factors contributed to Clinton’s demise. But they are not the whole story. Trump won because he successfully tapped the alienation and disillusionment of white voters, men and women who comprise 69% of the electorate and turned out for him in large numbers. As polling breakdowns show, the determining factors were not education or gender, not age, religion or geography, not Trump’s sexual predations or Clinton’s FBI entanglements – they were race and colour, linked to economic distress. Trump exploited a feeling among whites from all backgrounds, urban, suburban and rural, that Obama’s multicultural, multiracial, tolerant, inclusive and open, outward-looking America was not working for them. | All these factors contributed to Clinton’s demise. But they are not the whole story. Trump won because he successfully tapped the alienation and disillusionment of white voters, men and women who comprise 69% of the electorate and turned out for him in large numbers. As polling breakdowns show, the determining factors were not education or gender, not age, religion or geography, not Trump’s sexual predations or Clinton’s FBI entanglements – they were race and colour, linked to economic distress. Trump exploited a feeling among whites from all backgrounds, urban, suburban and rural, that Obama’s multicultural, multiracial, tolerant, inclusive and open, outward-looking America was not working for them. |
| There were significant numbers of people who felt their grievances were no longer being listened to by a centrist party that had loosed itself from its blue-collar moorings. As Thomas Frank said in these pages last week: “The Democrats went from being the party of Decatur (a down-at-heel town in Illinois) to the party of Martha’s Vineyard (home of the ‘coastal elites’) and they did so at roughly the same time that the Republicans were sharpening their deadly image of the ‘liberal elite’.” | |
| Part of the constituency that switched to Trump was railing against a sense of being overlooked during eight years of President Obama. Race unquestionably played a part. When Trump shrieked his slogan “Make America Great Again”, what he was really saying was “Make America White Again”. When he spoke about curbing immigration and building a Mexican wall, when he demonised Muslims, minorities and people from foreign countries he does not know or trust, when he vowed to scrap international trade deals that he claims are destroying jobs in the midwest, when he railed against selfish allies who do not pay their way, the subliminal message was always the same: fear of the foreigner in America’s midst. | Part of the constituency that switched to Trump was railing against a sense of being overlooked during eight years of President Obama. Race unquestionably played a part. When Trump shrieked his slogan “Make America Great Again”, what he was really saying was “Make America White Again”. When he spoke about curbing immigration and building a Mexican wall, when he demonised Muslims, minorities and people from foreign countries he does not know or trust, when he vowed to scrap international trade deals that he claims are destroying jobs in the midwest, when he railed against selfish allies who do not pay their way, the subliminal message was always the same: fear of the foreigner in America’s midst. |
| Trump conjured the illusion of a return to a simpler, homogenous, monocultural society of secure employment, safe neighbourhoods and agreed values. No wonder African Americans, Latinos and other dark-skinned minorities are frightened. No wonder US relations around the globe are in turmoil and rightwing European populists and hard Brexiters are celebrating. No wonder observers speak of the end of the west and the demise of liberal democracy. Trumpism has stormed the shining city on a hill, betrayed the founding fathers who stood tall for human dignity and universal rights and now presages an isolationist America made in Trump’s image – a beacon of discrimination and malice. | Trump conjured the illusion of a return to a simpler, homogenous, monocultural society of secure employment, safe neighbourhoods and agreed values. No wonder African Americans, Latinos and other dark-skinned minorities are frightened. No wonder US relations around the globe are in turmoil and rightwing European populists and hard Brexiters are celebrating. No wonder observers speak of the end of the west and the demise of liberal democracy. Trumpism has stormed the shining city on a hill, betrayed the founding fathers who stood tall for human dignity and universal rights and now presages an isolationist America made in Trump’s image – a beacon of discrimination and malice. |
| There are the peculiarities of the American electoral system to consider, too. Hillary Clinton won a majority of the popular vote but was handsomely beaten in the race for electoral college votes. And too little attention was paid to the effect of a decision by the supreme court in 2013 when it struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 by a five to four vote. What this did was allow nine states with long records of voting discrimination, such as Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, to no longer seek federal approval to change their laws. The effect was seen last week. As the New York Times explained: “Consider what has been happening in North Carolina, a battleground state with a history of racial discrimination in voting. Republican lawmakers and officials have gone to remarkable lengths to drive down turnout among black voters, who disproportionately favour Democrats.” There were numerous other examples across the country, including stringent voter ID rules that the federal government had stated earlier this year had a disproportionate effect on minorities. For the so-called leader of the free world to allow legalised voter suppression is beyond irony. | There are the peculiarities of the American electoral system to consider, too. Hillary Clinton won a majority of the popular vote but was handsomely beaten in the race for electoral college votes. And too little attention was paid to the effect of a decision by the supreme court in 2013 when it struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 by a five to four vote. What this did was allow nine states with long records of voting discrimination, such as Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, to no longer seek federal approval to change their laws. The effect was seen last week. As the New York Times explained: “Consider what has been happening in North Carolina, a battleground state with a history of racial discrimination in voting. Republican lawmakers and officials have gone to remarkable lengths to drive down turnout among black voters, who disproportionately favour Democrats.” There were numerous other examples across the country, including stringent voter ID rules that the federal government had stated earlier this year had a disproportionate effect on minorities. For the so-called leader of the free world to allow legalised voter suppression is beyond irony. |
| What supporters and opponents alike are about to discover is that Trump’s appeal, like the blue-collar billionaire himself, is two-faced. Much of what he promised on the campaign trail will not be delivered or will be so watered down as to make no difference. | What supporters and opponents alike are about to discover is that Trump’s appeal, like the blue-collar billionaire himself, is two-faced. Much of what he promised on the campaign trail will not be delivered or will be so watered down as to make no difference. |
| Trump says he will cut taxes, raise public spending and slash the federal deficit. That’s impossible all at once. Trump says he will renegotiate or scrap Nafta and other free-trade treaties. But his conceit that this will help uncompetitive carmakers in Detroit or steel-makers in Ohio is implausible. | Trump says he will cut taxes, raise public spending and slash the federal deficit. That’s impossible all at once. Trump says he will renegotiate or scrap Nafta and other free-trade treaties. But his conceit that this will help uncompetitive carmakers in Detroit or steel-makers in Ohio is implausible. |
| He says he will slap swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, but he knows the geopolitical and commercial realities mean he will not. He says he will make America strong and honour its friends, then kowtows to Vladimir Putin, the west’s most formidable strategic challenger, and undermines Nato. He says he will be Israel’s best friend. But his campaign was not above antisemitic signalling. | He says he will slap swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, but he knows the geopolitical and commercial realities mean he will not. He says he will make America strong and honour its friends, then kowtows to Vladimir Putin, the west’s most formidable strategic challenger, and undermines Nato. He says he will be Israel’s best friend. But his campaign was not above antisemitic signalling. |
| If Trump voters really believe the Mexican border wall plan, they need a reality check. The power of US presidents to act unilaterally in this, or any other domestic matter, is extremely circumscribed. Trump would face endless legal challenges and he would need agreement and funding from Congress. | If Trump voters really believe the Mexican border wall plan, they need a reality check. The power of US presidents to act unilaterally in this, or any other domestic matter, is extremely circumscribed. Trump would face endless legal challenges and he would need agreement and funding from Congress. |
| The prospect that much of what Trump has promised or threatened will not happen is welcome. Perhaps the responsibilities of office will temper his worst instincts, producing a Trump-lite. | The prospect that much of what Trump has promised or threatened will not happen is welcome. Perhaps the responsibilities of office will temper his worst instincts, producing a Trump-lite. |
| Crucially, the incoherence and contradictory nature of his economic ideas for boosting growth and jobs and revitalising moribund industrial areas suggest his grassroots supporters are destined for disappointment. Economic performance is what will ultimately define the Trump presidency. | Crucially, the incoherence and contradictory nature of his economic ideas for boosting growth and jobs and revitalising moribund industrial areas suggest his grassroots supporters are destined for disappointment. Economic performance is what will ultimately define the Trump presidency. |
| Trumpism has plenty of other horrors in store, while Trump’s volatile personality and inexperience add extreme unpredictability, at home and abroad, to a host of other worries. Trump now has the opportunity to stack the supreme court with conservative reactionaries like himself. That will pose a direct threat to abortion rights, despite his earlier support for Roe v Wade. In his latest comments, Trump appeared to soften his hostility to Obama’s healthcare reforms. His pledge to abolish them outright was a central plank of his campaign. What he will eventually do remains unclear. | Trumpism has plenty of other horrors in store, while Trump’s volatile personality and inexperience add extreme unpredictability, at home and abroad, to a host of other worries. Trump now has the opportunity to stack the supreme court with conservative reactionaries like himself. That will pose a direct threat to abortion rights, despite his earlier support for Roe v Wade. In his latest comments, Trump appeared to soften his hostility to Obama’s healthcare reforms. His pledge to abolish them outright was a central plank of his campaign. What he will eventually do remains unclear. |
| Even as he postures as the champion of ordinary working Americans, Trump intends to cut corporate taxes and ease bank regulation. Who knows how he will react if a nuclear-armed North Korea challenges his will? Hypocrisy, narcissism and fabrications are the watchwords as Trump readies himself for power. He must – and will be – challenged. | Even as he postures as the champion of ordinary working Americans, Trump intends to cut corporate taxes and ease bank regulation. Who knows how he will react if a nuclear-armed North Korea challenges his will? Hypocrisy, narcissism and fabrications are the watchwords as Trump readies himself for power. He must – and will be – challenged. |
| • Comments will be opened later | • Comments will be opened later |