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| Australia's refugee deal may be scuppered by Trump, US expert warns Australia's refugee deal may be scuppered by Trump, US expert warns | |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| Donald Trump is likely to tear up Australia’s refugee resettlement deal with the United States unless the US gets something significant in return, an American immigration expert has warned. | Donald Trump is likely to tear up Australia’s refugee resettlement deal with the United States unless the US gets something significant in return, an American immigration expert has warned. |
| Niels Frenzen, the director of the immigration clinic at the University of Southern California school of law, also warned that if US vetting had not already started, refugees would not be resettled before Trump was inaugurated as president on 20 January. | Niels Frenzen, the director of the immigration clinic at the University of Southern California school of law, also warned that if US vetting had not already started, refugees would not be resettled before Trump was inaugurated as president on 20 January. |
| On Sunday the Australian government announced a deal to resettle an unspecified number of refugees in the US. On Monday, Turnbull clarified that the US would determine how many refugees it took and said they would come out of its existing refugee quota. | On Sunday the Australian government announced a deal to resettle an unspecified number of refugees in the US. On Monday, Turnbull clarified that the US would determine how many refugees it took and said they would come out of its existing refugee quota. |
| Malcolm Turnbull has said he is confident the deal will hold. On Monday night the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, said he knew whether Trump would honour the deal, but could not reveal the answer. | Malcolm Turnbull has said he is confident the deal will hold. On Monday night the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, said he knew whether Trump would honour the deal, but could not reveal the answer. |
| On Tuesday, Frenzen told Radio National he assumed Trump would scrap the refugee deal. | On Tuesday, Frenzen told Radio National he assumed Trump would scrap the refugee deal. |
| “In all likelihood the only way it’s going to happen is if the refugees are transferred to the US before inauguration day [20 January],” he said. | “In all likelihood the only way it’s going to happen is if the refugees are transferred to the US before inauguration day [20 January],” he said. |
| “If the US has not already begun its own vetting or so-called background checks until now, if you look at the time the US has taken to vet Syrian refugees ... it’s unlikely that that could be accomplished in a few months.” | “If the US has not already begun its own vetting or so-called background checks until now, if you look at the time the US has taken to vet Syrian refugees ... it’s unlikely that that could be accomplished in a few months.” |
| But Frenzen said if the US had been negotiating with Australia since January and vetting had been “ongoing” it was possible refugees could be settled before 20 January. | But Frenzen said if the US had been negotiating with Australia since January and vetting had been “ongoing” it was possible refugees could be settled before 20 January. |
| Frenzen warned that Trump would rescind the deal without the approval of congress. “A deal is a deal, until the deal is changed,” he said. | Frenzen warned that Trump would rescind the deal without the approval of congress. “A deal is a deal, until the deal is changed,” he said. |
| Frenzen said the US election debate on immigration and refugees had been “volatile”. | Frenzen said the US election debate on immigration and refugees had been “volatile”. |
| “I don’t see that there’s much political chance of Trump allowing this deal to go through, unless there is something else going on we’re not aware of right now, which is certainly a possibility.” | “I don’t see that there’s much political chance of Trump allowing this deal to go through, unless there is something else going on we’re not aware of right now, which is certainly a possibility.” |
| In September the Australian government agreed to take refugees in Costa Rica. Labor has questioned whether that commitment formed the first half of a bigger deal with the US to take Australia’s refugees from Manus Island and Nauru. | In September the Australian government agreed to take refugees in Costa Rica. Labor has questioned whether that commitment formed the first half of a bigger deal with the US to take Australia’s refugees from Manus Island and Nauru. |
| On ABC’s 7.30 program on Monday, Turnbull was asked what the government would tell Trump if he asked why he should accept Australia’s refugees. | On ABC’s 7.30 program on Monday, Turnbull was asked what the government would tell Trump if he asked why he should accept Australia’s refugees. |
| He replied: “Well it’s the basis of a very long history of cooperation and you’ve seen the way we responded to President Obama’s refugee summit in New York, taking additional refugees from Central America.” | He replied: “Well it’s the basis of a very long history of cooperation and you’ve seen the way we responded to President Obama’s refugee summit in New York, taking additional refugees from Central America.” |
| Asked if the deal was unlikely under Trump, Turnbull said: “You’re entitled to speculate about that but I’m confident that the arrangements we’ve set in place will continue.” He refused to countenance a plan B, saying only he was confident the deal would continue. | Asked if the deal was unlikely under Trump, Turnbull said: “You’re entitled to speculate about that but I’m confident that the arrangements we’ve set in place will continue.” He refused to countenance a plan B, saying only he was confident the deal would continue. |
| On ABC’s Q&A, Joyce was asked if he believed Trump would honour the deal. He replied: “Even if I do know and the problem with it is because I’m on the national security committee, I do know … I really can’t answer you.” | On ABC’s Q&A, Joyce was asked if he believed Trump would honour the deal. He replied: “Even if I do know and the problem with it is because I’m on the national security committee, I do know … I really can’t answer you.” |
| Frenzen said he did not believe the Costa Rica deal would be sufficient to convince Trump and suggested taking detainees from Guantanamo Bay would be a bigger bargaining chip. | Frenzen said he did not believe the Costa Rica deal would be sufficient to convince Trump and suggested taking detainees from Guantanamo Bay would be a bigger bargaining chip. |
| He noted “one of the biggest barriers” to the deal is that “a significant number of [the Nauru and Manus refugees], if not the majority ... are Muslim”. In the campaign Trump called for a ban on Muslims entering the US, then appeared to shift his position by saying properly vetted Muslims might still be allowed in. | He noted “one of the biggest barriers” to the deal is that “a significant number of [the Nauru and Manus refugees], if not the majority ... are Muslim”. In the campaign Trump called for a ban on Muslims entering the US, then appeared to shift his position by saying properly vetted Muslims might still be allowed in. |
| Frenzen doubted Trump would be able to deliver on promises to deport illegal immigrants and build a wall or fence between Mexico. | Frenzen doubted Trump would be able to deliver on promises to deport illegal immigrants and build a wall or fence between Mexico. |
| He said he was “not sure” who the two to three million criminal illegal immigrants Trump plans to deport were, because Obama had already deported many in that category. | He said he was “not sure” who the two to three million criminal illegal immigrants Trump plans to deport were, because Obama had already deported many in that category. |
| “People will get over walls or over fences, or under walls. Wall or fence – it’s just a campaign slogan, nothing more.” | “People will get over walls or over fences, or under walls. Wall or fence – it’s just a campaign slogan, nothing more.” |