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New Zealand earthquake: up to 100,000 landslides amid aftershocks – live New Zealand earthquake: up to 100,000 landslides amid aftershocks – live
(35 minutes later)
3.41am GMT
03:41
A reader below the line asks:
Does anyone know what the difference between an aftershock and a new quake is, especially as aftershocks can still measure in the 5s and 6s?
This from the United States Geological Survey helps to explain:
Aftershocks are earthquakes that follow the largest shock of an earthquake sequence. They are smaller than the mainshock and within 1-2 rupture lengths distance from the mainshock. Aftershocks can continue over a period of weeks, months, or years.
In general, the larger the mainshock, the larger and more numerous the aftershocks, and the longer they will continue.
My colleague Michael Slezak has also answered some of the questions about the New Zealand earthquake(s) here:
3.29am GMT
03:29
John Key's missed call from Donald Trump
Prime minister John Key has told the NZ Herald that the US, Japan and Malaysia have offered assistance but he is confident the country has the capacity to deal with the aftermath of the earthquakes itself.
And Key explains why he missed a call from Donald Trump in the midst of the quake response:
I didn’t see the call when it came … in the hurly-burly of things I didn’t notice that.
He said the call with the president-elect will now probably happen on Wednesday.
3.20am GMT
03:20
Images show some of these many landslides – and the effects.
In the northeast South Island, a slip has contributed to the breaching of the Clarence river:
Workers have been clearing state highway 1 in the South Island after landslides blocked roads:
Railway lines were also crushed under slips north of Kaikoura:
2.59am GMT2.59am GMT
02:5902:59
'Up to 100,000 landslides''Up to 100,000 landslides'
Geonet says it estimates that between 80,000 and 100,000 landslides have been triggered by the succession of quakes:Geonet says it estimates that between 80,000 and 100,000 landslides have been triggered by the succession of quakes:
We are roughly estimating from yesterday’s reconnaissance flights that there may have been from 80,000 to 100,000 landslides. Much of the area affected by landslides is in the remote and rugged areas of the Inland and Seaward Kaikoura Ranges …We are roughly estimating from yesterday’s reconnaissance flights that there may have been from 80,000 to 100,000 landslides. Much of the area affected by landslides is in the remote and rugged areas of the Inland and Seaward Kaikoura Ranges …
The reports of landslide dams points to a potential developing hazard. Landslide dams can last thousands of years, they can fail slowly or they can fail very quickly. When they fail very quickly they can release large volumes of water and sediment into river systems as a flood wave (flash flood). These floods can be hazardous to river users and we would ask people to stay away from the all rivers on the east coast of the South Island from the Hurunui to the Awatere until inspections have been completed and more precise information can be provided.The reports of landslide dams points to a potential developing hazard. Landslide dams can last thousands of years, they can fail slowly or they can fail very quickly. When they fail very quickly they can release large volumes of water and sediment into river systems as a flood wave (flash flood). These floods can be hazardous to river users and we would ask people to stay away from the all rivers on the east coast of the South Island from the Hurunui to the Awatere until inspections have been completed and more precise information can be provided.
The landslides that have occurred as a result of the earthquake remain dangerous. Material can move at any time. Please exercise caution when in the vicinity of landslides and cracks in the ground on slopes. If it is raining the threat rises as the water can remobilise the debris as debris flows and debris floods (flash floods). Please avoid landslides in wet weather.The landslides that have occurred as a result of the earthquake remain dangerous. Material can move at any time. Please exercise caution when in the vicinity of landslides and cracks in the ground on slopes. If it is raining the threat rises as the water can remobilise the debris as debris flows and debris floods (flash floods). Please avoid landslides in wet weather.
2.37am GMT2.37am GMT
02:3702:37
John Key statementJohn Key statement
John Key, the New Zealand prime minister, has said the weather “certainly isn’t helping” relief efforts:John Key, the New Zealand prime minister, has said the weather “certainly isn’t helping” relief efforts:
The weather here in Wellington is yet another complicating factor to the aftermath of the earthquakes that took place.The weather here in Wellington is yet another complicating factor to the aftermath of the earthquakes that took place.
There are about 140 people that we’re looking to get out of Kaikoura as rapidly as we can; they’re on the priority list.There are about 140 people that we’re looking to get out of Kaikoura as rapidly as we can; they’re on the priority list.
He says aerial support has been offered by the US and Malaysia, and there is now “plenty of capacity” for airlifting those trapped and delivering supplies, weather permitting.He says aerial support has been offered by the US and Malaysia, and there is now “plenty of capacity” for airlifting those trapped and delivering supplies, weather permitting.
2.22am GMT2.22am GMT
02:2202:22
Geonet, the New Zealand earthquake monitor, has posted this update on what it thinks could happen next:Geonet, the New Zealand earthquake monitor, has posted this update on what it thinks could happen next:
We can say one thing with certainty: there will be more earthquakes to come in this area …We can say one thing with certainty: there will be more earthquakes to come in this area …
We’ve developed three scenarios based on what we know so far but be aware that our understanding is evolving as we do more analysis and receive more data.We’ve developed three scenarios based on what we know so far but be aware that our understanding is evolving as we do more analysis and receive more data.
It sets out three possible scenarios for the coming month:It sets out three possible scenarios for the coming month:
Scenario One: Extremely likely (>99% within the next 30 days)Scenario One: Extremely likely (>99% within the next 30 days)
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency (and in line with forecasts) over the next 30 days. Felt aftershocks (e.g. over M5) would occur from the M7.5 epicentre near Culverden, right up along the Kaikoura coastline to the Cape Palliser/Wellington area. This includes the potential for aftershocks of between 6.0 and 6.9 (91% within the next 30 days). Scenario one will continue to play out, even if either scenario two or three also occurs.The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency (and in line with forecasts) over the next 30 days. Felt aftershocks (e.g. over M5) would occur from the M7.5 epicentre near Culverden, right up along the Kaikoura coastline to the Cape Palliser/Wellington area. This includes the potential for aftershocks of between 6.0 and 6.9 (91% within the next 30 days). Scenario one will continue to play out, even if either scenario two or three also occurs.
Scenario Two: Unlikely (15% within the next 30 days)Scenario Two: Unlikely (15% within the next 30 days)
An earthquake smaller than Monday’s mainshock and between M7.0 to M7.5. There are numerous mapped faults in the Marlborough or Cook Strait areas capable of such an earthquake. It may also occur on an unmapped fault. This earthquake may be onshore or offshore but close enough to cause severe shaking on land. This scenario includes the possibility of an earthquake in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone. Such earthquakes have the potential to generate tsunami.An earthquake smaller than Monday’s mainshock and between M7.0 to M7.5. There are numerous mapped faults in the Marlborough or Cook Strait areas capable of such an earthquake. It may also occur on an unmapped fault. This earthquake may be onshore or offshore but close enough to cause severe shaking on land. This scenario includes the possibility of an earthquake in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone. Such earthquakes have the potential to generate tsunami.
Scenario Three: Very unlikely (7% within the next 30 days)Scenario Three: Very unlikely (7% within the next 30 days)
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquake activity will trigger an earthquake larger than Monday’s M7.5 main shock. This includes the possibility for an earthquake of greater than M8.0, which could be on the ‘plate interface’ (where the Pacific Plate meets the Australian Plate). Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since the M7.5 earthquake.A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquake activity will trigger an earthquake larger than Monday’s M7.5 main shock. This includes the possibility for an earthquake of greater than M8.0, which could be on the ‘plate interface’ (where the Pacific Plate meets the Australian Plate). Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since the M7.5 earthquake.
2.07am GMT2.07am GMT
02:0702:07
Two 'severe' earthquakes in north South IslandTwo 'severe' earthquakes in north South Island
Geonet has rated the most recent aftershock near Seddon, in the north of the South Island, as “severe”, of 5.2 magnitude.Geonet has rated the most recent aftershock near Seddon, in the north of the South Island, as “severe”, of 5.2 magnitude.
It was at 2.43pm local time – about 20 minutes ago – at a depth of 12km.It was at 2.43pm local time – about 20 minutes ago – at a depth of 12km.
It was preceded 10 minutes earlier by another “severe” 5.8 magnitude quake in the same region, that one at a depth of just 4km.It was preceded 10 minutes earlier by another “severe” 5.8 magnitude quake in the same region, that one at a depth of just 4km.
1.52am GMT1.52am GMT
01:5201:52
A series of strong aftershocks is currently affecting both islands.A series of strong aftershocks is currently affecting both islands.
All rail services in Wellington – already disrupted due to the weather – have now been cancelled.All rail services in Wellington – already disrupted due to the weather – have now been cancelled.
The strongest aftershocks – close to Kaikoura and Seddon in the South Island – were also felt in the parliament building in the capital:The strongest aftershocks – close to Kaikoura and Seddon in the South Island – were also felt in the parliament building in the capital:
Well that was freaky sitting in Parliament with the finance minister talking about #eqnz when quite a large one hit, English keeps talking!Well that was freaky sitting in Parliament with the finance minister talking about #eqnz when quite a large one hit, English keeps talking!
1.42am GMT1.42am GMT
01:4201:42
Strong aftershock near KaikouraStrong aftershock near Kaikoura
The quakes continue – New Zealand has already experienced over 1,000 of them since Sunday night.The quakes continue – New Zealand has already experienced over 1,000 of them since Sunday night.
These are just within the last few minutes:These are just within the last few minutes:
M5.8 quake causing strong shaking near Kaikoura https://t.co/QNbrwqi458M5.8 quake causing strong shaking near Kaikoura https://t.co/QNbrwqi458
M5.6 quake causing strong shaking near Seddon https://t.co/2Pik7o4X8GM5.6 quake causing strong shaking near Seddon https://t.co/2Pik7o4X8G
1.26am GMT1.26am GMT
01:2601:26
Some of those airlifted out of Kaikoura today have reached Christchurch. Four Air Force NH90 helicopters have been deployed to rescue tourists and those locals who want to leave the stranded town, which currently has no road access.Some of those airlifted out of Kaikoura today have reached Christchurch. Four Air Force NH90 helicopters have been deployed to rescue tourists and those locals who want to leave the stranded town, which currently has no road access.
Civil defence officials earlier said 34 people had been airlifted out of the town on Tuesday morning. Hundreds remain.Civil defence officials earlier said 34 people had been airlifted out of the town on Tuesday morning. Hundreds remain.
1.05am GMT
01:05
Eleanor Ainge Roy
Marlborough civil defence is in the process of evacuating people stranded on the swollen Clarence River, on the northeast of the South Island.
Today it helicoptered out six locals, whom the Red Cross said were “shaken and scared”.
On Monday 16 rafters and 12 kayakers were evacuated. The response team is preparing for further evacuations after heavy rainfall overnight.
12.51am GMT
00:51
Residents of the Hutt Valley, in the Wellington region, are being evacuated due to flooding.
Although the timing of the bad weather – torrential rain and gale-force winds – is an unhappy coincidence following the massive earthquake and its aftershocks that continue to rattle both islands, the quakes have left some areas more vulnerable to landslides, and some slips have been reported in and around Wellington, damaging property and blocking roads. Public transport has, unsurprisingly, been disrupted.
Oh good golly!!! #huttvalley #huttriver @WeatherWatchNZ @HuttHub @HuttCityCouncil pic.twitter.com/7f6h8WNrWN
12.38am GMT
00:38
In case you were worried about the stranded cows, they have now been rescued.
Bonnie Malkin reports:
The happy news that the cattle had been saved came on Tuesday when Newshub reported that the farmer who owned them had used a pick and shovel to dig them out of their predicament.
The farmer said they were part of a larger group of 14 rescued from the paddock, which had been torn up by the quake.
Other livestock were not so lucky. “We did lose stock, there were stock losses, but the whole hillside fell during the earthquake and we had a lot of stock on there – we don’t know what we’ve got,” the unnamed man said.
The cattle had been given water and were safe, the farmer said.
Parts of the property, which lies on a fault line, had moved three metres, he said.
12.24am GMT
00:24
1,078 quakes since Sunday
Geonet, the New Zealand earthquake monitor, says that up to now, there have been 1,078 quakes following the enormous 7.5 magnitude temblor that hit the South Island on Sunday night.
On Tuesday alone, there have been 177 quakes between 6am and 1pm; with 34 aftershocks in the hour since midday alone.
1 pm update: 34 eqs in the last hour, 177 eqs since 6 am today and 1078 eqs since the M7.5. Kaikoura Earthquake. #eqnz
12.17am GMT
00:17
34 people airlifted from Kaikoura today
The ministry of civil defence and emergency management (MCDEM) has just held a press briefing.
Sarah Stuart-Black, director of civil defence, told reporters that damage has been reported to properties in the South and North islands.
She said aftershocks will continue and “could be close to the same size [as Sunday’s] … and could in fact be bigger”.
The number of confirmed deaths still stands at two, and while there are no exact figures on the numbers injured, Stuart-Black said “casualties have been small levels of minor injuries”.
She asked New Zealanders to “continue to look after each other”.
The greatest challenge for civil defence is the logistics to reach stranded communities with no road access, she said, while stressing that there was “good aerial support” for Kaikoura, the HMNZS Canterbury is on its way.
Stuart-Black said the first priority for Kaikoura is water supply: more is being transported in today and the fire service is taking in a water treatment plant.
The transfer of supplies has so far been mainly through helicopter air support; Canterbury will be delivering larger loads, as well as evacuating tourists and locals who want to leave.
By midday on Tuesday, 34 people had been airlifted out, including some relocated for medical reasons. The airlifts will continue:
With the amount of helicopter trips, we’ll be able to get quite a number of people out today.
Some locals in Kaikoura have taken tourists into their homes, she said.
11.53pm GMT
23:53
Evacuations in Wellington region
In Wellington, pounded by heavy rains and strong winds in the wake of the quakes, roads – including state highways – are flooded, leaving the capital city effectively cut off.
Residents in the Hutt Valley region of Wellington are being evacuated from their homes after the Waiwhetu Stream broke its banks.
Flooding closes major routes in and out of #Wellington with motorists warned to stay off the roads https://t.co/EwjsO0OtIH pic.twitter.com/w0KXARQevz
Some Lower Hutt properties are being evacuated due to flooding on the Waiwhetu Stream. We'll have the latest weather news on our show 2night pic.twitter.com/1va1iWwl09
11.42pm GMT
23:42
Radio NZ reports that 40 tourists have been flown out of Kaikoura by military helicopter.
But with hundreds still waiting, it could take up to four days to get everyone out.
UPDATE || One of our Seasprite helicopters is also heading south to assist in the earthquake evacuation // #eqnz #Kaikoura #earthquake pic.twitter.com/RbcVZhUC2a
Updated
at 11.43pm GMT
11.37pm GMT
23:37
Meanwhile, the aftershocks continue, this just a few minutes ago near the beleaguered town of Kaikoura:
M3.6 quake causing light shaking near Kaikoura https://t.co/9YOnwvj7e1
11.32pm GMT
23:32
My colleague Eleanor Ainge Roy is in Hanmer Springs, close to the epicentre of the quake.
She sends this latest on the situation in Kaikoura:
The town has two days of clean water supplies after the council’s water tank sustained major damage. Helicopters are flying in water bladders and engineers to try to re-establish a clean supply.
People in Kaikoura have been told to urgently conserve the existing supply and use it for drinking only. Food and fuel resources are also low, though local restaurants and residents have donated much of their own stores to the relief effort, including seafood and crayfish.
The local marae (Maori meeting house) cooked and served meals for up to 700 people on Monday, Radio NZ reported, and planned to do the same again on Tuesday.
The New Zealand Transport Authority said it was working with contractors to urgently clear an inland route to the town in the coming days, though their efforts have been hampered by frequent aftershocks – up to 800 since the quake, according to GeoNet.
The New Zealand military dispatched helicopters from Wellington, and HMNZS Canterbury left Auckland on Monday night stocked with relief supplies. Its journey south was slowed by severe weather and rough seas.
“From all directions Kaikoura has essentially been isolated,” said Air Commodore Darryn Webb, the acting commander of New Zealand’s joint forces. “There’s a real imperative to support the town because it can’t support itself.”
Webb said the military planned to begin using four NH90 helicopters that could each transport about 18 people out of the town at a time.
“We’re going to get as many people and belongings out as quickly as we can,” Webb said.
It was estimated HMNZS Canterbury may be able to reach Kaikoura by lunchtime on Wednesday.
11.24pm GMT
23:24
A major relief effort is currently underway to reach thousands of people still stranded in the wake of the 7.5 magnitude earthquake that has left roads blocked across parts of the South and North islands.
Military helicopters and a navy ship have been dispatched to rescue about 1,000 tourists, along with residents, who are stuck in the coastal town of Kaikoura, South Island, which has been cut off from land access.
Meanwhile, torrential rain and gale-forced winds have hampered the relief efforts and further disrupted life for many New Zealanders, with the capital, Wellington, flooded.
We’ll have all the latest news here as the day unfolds.
If you’re affected by the aftermath of the earthquake, please do contact us in the comments below or you can reach me directly on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.