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| Concacaf World Cup qualifying is broken. But what should replace the Hex? | Concacaf World Cup qualifying is broken. But what should replace the Hex? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Two games into the Hexagonal and USA are rooted to the bottom of the table. The 1-2 loss to Mexico and the 0-4 drubbing away to Costa Rica has left US soccer in need of some serious soul-searching, and Jürgen Klinsmann has again found himself on the chopping block. | Two games into the Hexagonal and USA are rooted to the bottom of the table. The 1-2 loss to Mexico and the 0-4 drubbing away to Costa Rica has left US soccer in need of some serious soul-searching, and Jürgen Klinsmann has again found himself on the chopping block. |
| Yet despite their poor start, USA are still odds-on to make it to the 2018 World Cup – an indictment on a qualification system that is not only outdated, but serves the confederation’s big teams in a disproportionate way. | Yet despite their poor start, USA are still odds-on to make it to the 2018 World Cup – an indictment on a qualification system that is not only outdated, but serves the confederation’s big teams in a disproportionate way. |
| Consider this: we’re 570 days away from the opening match in Russia, and 82% of Concacaf’s teams have already been eliminated. It’s a point not lost on Victor Montagliani, the confederation’s president, who derided the qualifying system earlier this year. “Something needs to change because you can’t have 85% of your members who are on the outside looking in two years before the World Cup,” Montagliani said. | Consider this: we’re 570 days away from the opening match in Russia, and 82% of Concacaf’s teams have already been eliminated. It’s a point not lost on Victor Montagliani, the confederation’s president, who derided the qualifying system earlier this year. “Something needs to change because you can’t have 85% of your members who are on the outside looking in two years before the World Cup,” Montagliani said. |
| The first seven Concacaf teams were eliminated in March 2015. And while the likes of the Cayman Islands, Montserrat and the US Virgin Islands are unlikely to become world-beaters anytime soon, the winner-takes-all early rounds of qualifying, where a four-year project can come down to a home and away tie three years before the actual competition, is more than a tad harsh. | |
| The plight of the minnows is probably not even the worst of it. Those most affected are the teams just outside the Hex, the ones on the cusp that would certainly benefit from a more inclusive system. The likes of Canada, Haiti, Jamaica and Guatemala – teams that can be formidable on their day. These teams were all eliminated this past summer after the second phase of qualifying. What are they supposed to do now? | The plight of the minnows is probably not even the worst of it. Those most affected are the teams just outside the Hex, the ones on the cusp that would certainly benefit from a more inclusive system. The likes of Canada, Haiti, Jamaica and Guatemala – teams that can be formidable on their day. These teams were all eliminated this past summer after the second phase of qualifying. What are they supposed to do now? |
| Concacaf in its current form has become a top-heavy feedback loop. Yes, the likes of the US, Mexico and Costa Rica deserve their positions at the top of the region but the system – which explicitly states on its site that it aims to “develop, promote and manage football throughout the region with integrity, transparency, and passion in order to inspire participation in the game” – isn’t doing that. | |
| In its current iteration, the perennial Hex teams – only 10 teams have qualified for this final stage since 1998 – reap the rewards both on and off the field. Everything is concentrated at the top. The minnows of the federation are forced to scrap in the prelim stages with a sliver of hope that they would get any further. | In its current iteration, the perennial Hex teams – only 10 teams have qualified for this final stage since 1998 – reap the rewards both on and off the field. Everything is concentrated at the top. The minnows of the federation are forced to scrap in the prelim stages with a sliver of hope that they would get any further. |
| Here’s how the loop functions: the extra competitive matches mean the Hex’s six teams are likely to get a favorable seeding when qualifying starts again two years later. For the Cayman Islands or Suriname, for example, it would take a few World Cup cycles of consistent success and a healthy dose of luck to get a decent enough seeding to avoid being knocked out a full three years ahead. “Caribbean countries have problems climbing the Fifa rankings, just because we are not able to play as many international games as you want to,” Suriname soccer president John Krishnadath told the Associated Press. | Here’s how the loop functions: the extra competitive matches mean the Hex’s six teams are likely to get a favorable seeding when qualifying starts again two years later. For the Cayman Islands or Suriname, for example, it would take a few World Cup cycles of consistent success and a healthy dose of luck to get a decent enough seeding to avoid being knocked out a full three years ahead. “Caribbean countries have problems climbing the Fifa rankings, just because we are not able to play as many international games as you want to,” Suriname soccer president John Krishnadath told the Associated Press. |
| For a real-world example of how this could work, look at Uefa. Their expanded qualifying system has been viewed as a resounding success. The likes of Albania, Wales and Iceland benefited from an expanded system that allowed them to play against tougher competition consistently. Wales and Northern Ireland finished second-bottom of their 2014 qualifying groups, yet bounced back with impressive runs in the European Championships this year. | |
| And then there’s Iceland, a nation of only 325,000 people that has climbed over 100 spots in the Fifa ranking in three years. Iceland, of course, invested heavily in domestic football, but without the prospect of consistent competition they would have stagnated. | |
| Solely based on population size alone – for comparison, Trinidad and Tobago has 1.3 million people – Iceland has no business appearing at major tournaments, far less doing well. But Europe’s approach to qualifying means that every two years major stars head to Reykjavík, drawing attention and sponsorship dollars. Over time, it all adds up. | |
| This six-team system in Concacafalso encourages complacency: with 3.5 spots available, there isn’t a final round in qualifying that offers such fantastic odds for success. Despite the USA’s horrendous start, it would be a shock if they didn’t qualify. Look no further than Mexico’s performance in the last cycle – winning just two of 10 matches in the Hex was enough for El Tri to secure a playoff spot and a berth in the final tournament. | This six-team system in Concacafalso encourages complacency: with 3.5 spots available, there isn’t a final round in qualifying that offers such fantastic odds for success. Despite the USA’s horrendous start, it would be a shock if they didn’t qualify. Look no further than Mexico’s performance in the last cycle – winning just two of 10 matches in the Hex was enough for El Tri to secure a playoff spot and a berth in the final tournament. |
| One possible proposal would be to extend the hexagonal to an octagonal: the top teams would still make the final round, but we’d see more turnover in those sixth to eighth positions, where teams can truly begin to make the leap. From a logistical standpoint, having more teams involved at the final stage means more teams gaining ranking points in competitive fixtures later in the cycle as well. | |
| Having three groups of six as the final round could work, with the winner of each group and the best third-place finisher going to a playoff. In this scenario we do lose the big top-heavy fixtures as the likes of the US, Mexico and Costa Rica are likely to be separated, but over time the teams outside of the top handful are going to get stronger and present a tougher challenge. | |
| Another solution would be to allow the elites the prospect of increased competition without compromising things for the other teams. Concacaf and Conmebol have been flirting with each other for years and the rousing success of the Copa America Centenario could be a proxy for more things to come. A full merger would likely be far too complicated, but a partial merger could offer some interesting solutions. | Another solution would be to allow the elites the prospect of increased competition without compromising things for the other teams. Concacaf and Conmebol have been flirting with each other for years and the rousing success of the Copa America Centenario could be a proxy for more things to come. A full merger would likely be far too complicated, but a partial merger could offer some interesting solutions. |
| How about Mexico, the US and Costa Rica moving to Conmebol? In this scenario, two qualification spots could move there, to make 6.5 spots for 13 teams. Concacaf would still retain 1.5 spots, but it would result in far more parity, and upward mobility for the smaller nations (and more meaningful games). | |
| But Concacaf should live up to its credo, not cut and run. In addition, without Mexico and the US, Concacaf would become an afterthought at a time where the region has made massive strides on the world stage, considering their success at the 2014 World Cup. | |
| A few days ago, Thomas Müller came under fire for his comments after Germany’s 8-0 win over San Marino. The Bayern Munich star said that “matches like the one against San Marino have nothing to do with professional football”. The backlash was swift and Müller was given a full dressing down – and a 10-point manifesto to boot – by San Marino press officer Alan Gasperoni. | |
| Point six in his Müller manifesto: “It was helpful to your federation (and to ours too) to earn image rights money with which they, in addition to pay you for the trouble, can build structure for the kids in your country, football academies, safer stadiums. Our federation will build a new field in an isolated little town called Acquaviva. You could have built it with six months of your salary; we will with the money from a 90-minute-match. Not bad, is it?” | Point six in his Müller manifesto: “It was helpful to your federation (and to ours too) to earn image rights money with which they, in addition to pay you for the trouble, can build structure for the kids in your country, football academies, safer stadiums. Our federation will build a new field in an isolated little town called Acquaviva. You could have built it with six months of your salary; we will with the money from a 90-minute-match. Not bad, is it?” |
| Concacaf doesn’t have to go all-in on either approach. But by deciding which side they want to be on, they could make the system fairer, and better, for everyone involved. |