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| Readying themselves for the unexpected must be the Democrats’ priority | Readying themselves for the unexpected must be the Democrats’ priority |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| For Democrats over the age of 40, a heartbreaking loss in a presidential election is an uncomfortably familiar feeling. Twice in the past two decades, Democrats have won the popular vote but lost the presidency. | For Democrats over the age of 40, a heartbreaking loss in a presidential election is an uncomfortably familiar feeling. Twice in the past two decades, Democrats have won the popular vote but lost the presidency. |
| Each presidential loss brings three intertwined questions. What happened? What’s the best way to deal with the new administration? And what’s the path back to power in the next midterm and presidential elections? | Each presidential loss brings three intertwined questions. What happened? What’s the best way to deal with the new administration? And what’s the path back to power in the next midterm and presidential elections? |
| This year’s result is so different that each of those questions is perplexing. The underlying cause of the defeat might be that Democrats lost their connection to white working-class voters, particularly in the upper midwest. Or that Hillary Clinton, some time in early 2015, lost her longstanding base of popularity and trust and wasn’t equipped to get it back. There are a dozen or more demographic categories in which Clinton underformed Barack Obama in 2012, in addition to white people without college degrees, suggesting that Clinton’s broad unpopularity was an inescapable problem. | This year’s result is so different that each of those questions is perplexing. The underlying cause of the defeat might be that Democrats lost their connection to white working-class voters, particularly in the upper midwest. Or that Hillary Clinton, some time in early 2015, lost her longstanding base of popularity and trust and wasn’t equipped to get it back. There are a dozen or more demographic categories in which Clinton underformed Barack Obama in 2012, in addition to white people without college degrees, suggesting that Clinton’s broad unpopularity was an inescapable problem. |
| On to a volatile base of distrust, cultural disconnect and raw dishonesty about what a president could achieve for people, Trump and his sometimes unwitting allies added relentless but baseless investigations, Russian cyber-meddling and, finally, FBI director James Comey’s letter 10 days before the election announcing that he was reopening the investigation into Clinton’s email practices. (Nothing came of it, predictably.) These staggering interventions went well beyond the mild constitutional crisis that led to George W Bush’s presidency. | On to a volatile base of distrust, cultural disconnect and raw dishonesty about what a president could achieve for people, Trump and his sometimes unwitting allies added relentless but baseless investigations, Russian cyber-meddling and, finally, FBI director James Comey’s letter 10 days before the election announcing that he was reopening the investigation into Clinton’s email practices. (Nothing came of it, predictably.) These staggering interventions went well beyond the mild constitutional crisis that led to George W Bush’s presidency. |
| And yet Clinton won the popular vote and not by a little but by about 1.5% – more than the proportions enjoyed by several recent presidents. The Trump coalition is smaller than former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s from 2012 and a minority of voters supported Republican House and Senate candidates, overall. These facts can’t change any results, but they have to be acknowledged in any big-picture analysis. | And yet Clinton won the popular vote and not by a little but by about 1.5% – more than the proportions enjoyed by several recent presidents. The Trump coalition is smaller than former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s from 2012 and a minority of voters supported Republican House and Senate candidates, overall. These facts can’t change any results, but they have to be acknowledged in any big-picture analysis. |
| There is, then, no easy guidance for Democrats. And so we should not be surprised that they have started out on an uncertain footing on the second question, of how to relate to the administration. The norms that have been violated are so many and so profound, and the risks so large, that the only moral reaction is to refuse to normalise (suddenly the most overused word in English) the abrupt arrival of reality-show kleptocracy, with a gold-plated sheen, in the democracy that anchors the world order. And yet, however correct that attitude, it is largely meaningless in action. | There is, then, no easy guidance for Democrats. And so we should not be surprised that they have started out on an uncertain footing on the second question, of how to relate to the administration. The norms that have been violated are so many and so profound, and the risks so large, that the only moral reaction is to refuse to normalise (suddenly the most overused word in English) the abrupt arrival of reality-show kleptocracy, with a gold-plated sheen, in the democracy that anchors the world order. And yet, however correct that attitude, it is largely meaningless in action. |
| At other moments, though, Democrats realise that Trump has no fixed ideology or purpose other than bluffing his way through his biggest and most daring fraud ever. He did say “infrastructure”; he did say he would fix “inner cities” (places where “you get shot walking to the store”); he and his daughter Ivanka mentioned paid family leave. Perhaps these are opportunities. Maybe he’s as easily nudged in the direction of such progressive policy goals as he is towards the adamantine conservatism and racism reflected in his first three high-level nominations. | At other moments, though, Democrats realise that Trump has no fixed ideology or purpose other than bluffing his way through his biggest and most daring fraud ever. He did say “infrastructure”; he did say he would fix “inner cities” (places where “you get shot walking to the store”); he and his daughter Ivanka mentioned paid family leave. Perhaps these are opportunities. Maybe he’s as easily nudged in the direction of such progressive policy goals as he is towards the adamantine conservatism and racism reflected in his first three high-level nominations. |
| But those first moves on Trump’s part send two important messages to Democrats, which will also affect mainstream Republicans and conservatives. First, he doesn’t intend to or doesn’t know how to expand the coalition that supports him. Trump is aware only of his hardcore base, the people who came to his rallies and chanted “lock her up” when he mentioned his opponent. | But those first moves on Trump’s part send two important messages to Democrats, which will also affect mainstream Republicans and conservatives. First, he doesn’t intend to or doesn’t know how to expand the coalition that supports him. Trump is aware only of his hardcore base, the people who came to his rallies and chanted “lock her up” when he mentioned his opponent. |
| Second, he’s unlikely to be a popular president in his first months in office, which is unprecedented. On election day, Trump’s favourable rating was comparable to Richard Nixon’s in May 1974. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Will Trump’s 2017 public support move up from Nixonian levels? It might, with the aura of the presidency, or it might not, in the absence of the distrusted Hillary Clinton as a foil. Democrats have to be prepared for it to move in either direction, but down is a safer bet. | Second, he’s unlikely to be a popular president in his first months in office, which is unprecedented. On election day, Trump’s favourable rating was comparable to Richard Nixon’s in May 1974. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Will Trump’s 2017 public support move up from Nixonian levels? It might, with the aura of the presidency, or it might not, in the absence of the distrusted Hillary Clinton as a foil. Democrats have to be prepared for it to move in either direction, but down is a safer bet. |
| Part of Trump’s subtle power is that he doesn’t fit into most of our mental templates for how human beings, much less public figures, should behave. He seems to have neither a forward or backward attention span, except for grudges. He now holds the ultimate public job and yet does not seem to have given thought to anything other than personal gain and attention in his entire life. | Part of Trump’s subtle power is that he doesn’t fit into most of our mental templates for how human beings, much less public figures, should behave. He seems to have neither a forward or backward attention span, except for grudges. He now holds the ultimate public job and yet does not seem to have given thought to anything other than personal gain and attention in his entire life. |
| The course of the presidency of a man like this, with so little public support, is not to be predicted by comparison with Ronald Reagan, a two-term governor of the largest state, in the 1980s or George W Bush two decades later. Trump is a 70-year-old man, though one who often seems like a seven-year-old, embarking on one of the most arduous jobs in the world and one that has nothing to do with anything he’s ever done before. He will have to listen far more than talk, which seems unlikely. | The course of the presidency of a man like this, with so little public support, is not to be predicted by comparison with Ronald Reagan, a two-term governor of the largest state, in the 1980s or George W Bush two decades later. Trump is a 70-year-old man, though one who often seems like a seven-year-old, embarking on one of the most arduous jobs in the world and one that has nothing to do with anything he’s ever done before. He will have to listen far more than talk, which seems unlikely. |
| This may seem a cop-out, but Democrats will have to look at the weeks and years ahead as a period of total uncertainty. Trump’s most trusted aides and nominees today might be exiled along with Chris Christie by New Year’s Day. Republicans might ram through all his nominees or the process might be bogged down for months. Trump’s vague directives, combined with House speaker Paul Ryan’s pre-written agenda, might form legislation passed in the first year, with a massive tax cut for the very rich at the forefront. Or, more likely, that agenda might get mired in the simple complexity of legislative negotiation even within one party. | This may seem a cop-out, but Democrats will have to look at the weeks and years ahead as a period of total uncertainty. Trump’s most trusted aides and nominees today might be exiled along with Chris Christie by New Year’s Day. Republicans might ram through all his nominees or the process might be bogged down for months. Trump’s vague directives, combined with House speaker Paul Ryan’s pre-written agenda, might form legislation passed in the first year, with a massive tax cut for the very rich at the forefront. Or, more likely, that agenda might get mired in the simple complexity of legislative negotiation even within one party. |
| Prediction is impossible, but two facts remain: the US is the same country it was on 6 November, when it was moving roughly towards racial reconciliation and out of the long shadow of the Great Recession. And it is the same country that, the next day, supported Hillary Clinton by a wide margin. Those facts are cold comfort today, but should be Democrats’ only guidestar in the months ahead. | Prediction is impossible, but two facts remain: the US is the same country it was on 6 November, when it was moving roughly towards racial reconciliation and out of the long shadow of the Great Recession. And it is the same country that, the next day, supported Hillary Clinton by a wide margin. Those facts are cold comfort today, but should be Democrats’ only guidestar in the months ahead. |
| Mark Schmitt runs the political reform programme at the New America think tank, and is ex-editor of American Prospect | Mark Schmitt runs the political reform programme at the New America think tank, and is ex-editor of American Prospect |
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