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France's 'Fillon miracle' forces rethinking of loyalties on centre-right Fillon calls for 'transformation' after first-round win in French primary
(about 1 hour later)
The surprise victor of the first round of France’s centre-right presidential primary has called for a “profound change and transformation” in the country, a day after seeing off former president Nicolas Sarkozy in the battle to become candidate for the Elysée palace.The surprise victor of the first round of France’s centre-right presidential primary has called for a “profound change and transformation” in the country, a day after seeing off former president Nicolas Sarkozy in the battle to become candidate for the Elysée palace.
Speaking on Monday night, François Fillon, a former prime minister who won 44% of the vote in Sunday’s first-round primary, denied his victory was an “outsider’s revenge” against his rivals, Sarkozy and Alain Juppé.Speaking on Monday night, François Fillon, a former prime minister who won 44% of the vote in Sunday’s first-round primary, denied his victory was an “outsider’s revenge” against his rivals, Sarkozy and Alain Juppé.
In a television interview Fillon, 62, said he was convinced his economically liberal and socially conservative political ideas had resonated with the French people.In a television interview Fillon, 62, said he was convinced his economically liberal and socially conservative political ideas had resonated with the French people.
“There is a form of revolt by the French people against the political class, and against opinion poll after poll that gave the impression that the result was a foregone conclusion and they had no role to play,” he said.“There is a form of revolt by the French people against the political class, and against opinion poll after poll that gave the impression that the result was a foregone conclusion and they had no role to play,” he said.
He added: “Everyone said I had no chance for my programme, which I admit is a difficult programme … but for the French to choose with such a big percentage to support me means they believe in this programme.He added: “Everyone said I had no chance for my programme, which I admit is a difficult programme … but for the French to choose with such a big percentage to support me means they believe in this programme.
“We need a profound change and transformation of our country … I believe the majority of the French people want this.”“We need a profound change and transformation of our country … I believe the majority of the French people want this.”
In the wake of Sunday’s result, which saw Juppé, the former favourite, come second with 28% of the vote, France’s centre-right heavyweights were forced to realign their loyalties to either Fillon or Juppé, 71.In the wake of Sunday’s result, which saw Juppé, the former favourite, come second with 28% of the vote, France’s centre-right heavyweights were forced to realign their loyalties to either Fillon or Juppé, 71.
The two men will go head-to-head in a televised debate before next Sunday’s second round of voting by their party, Les Républicains.The two men will go head-to-head in a televised debate before next Sunday’s second round of voting by their party, Les Républicains.
Former ministers and losing candidates – including former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who once described his one-time prime minister as “Mister Nobody” – declared they would support Fillon in the second round.Former ministers and losing candidates – including former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who once described his one-time prime minister as “Mister Nobody” – declared they would support Fillon in the second round.
Whichever of the two former prime ministers wins is expected to be the only credible opponent to the far-right’s Marine Le Pen in the presidential election next spring.Whichever of the two former prime ministers wins is expected to be the only credible opponent to the far-right’s Marine Le Pen in the presidential election next spring.
Some analysts have said Fillon may prove a less formidable opponent against her than Juppé. Some analysts have said Fillon, an avowed Thatcherite, may prove a less formidable opponent against her than Juppé.
Dominique Moïsi, political analyst from the thinktank the Institut Montaigne, said he was sure Fillon would win the second round, but feared rightwing voters had “not chosen well”.Dominique Moïsi, political analyst from the thinktank the Institut Montaigne, said he was sure Fillon would win the second round, but feared rightwing voters had “not chosen well”.
“I’m afraid they have chosen someone – Mr Fillon – who is a very shrewd number two, but not a number one. Mr Juppé is not an ideal candidate but he would, in my view, be a good president. He is a centrist, he could rally people, and he is the only person who left-wing voters could vote for, in the absence of a Socialist candidate.”“I’m afraid they have chosen someone – Mr Fillon – who is a very shrewd number two, but not a number one. Mr Juppé is not an ideal candidate but he would, in my view, be a good president. He is a centrist, he could rally people, and he is the only person who left-wing voters could vote for, in the absence of a Socialist candidate.”
He added that the “primary consideration” should be choosing a presidential candidate who could defeat Le Pen.He added that the “primary consideration” should be choosing a presidential candidate who could defeat Le Pen.
“The French system mitigates against a far-right victory; this remains unlikely, but for the first time I would not say it is impossible.”“The French system mitigates against a far-right victory; this remains unlikely, but for the first time I would not say it is impossible.”
Sarkozy crashed out of the primaries with only 20.6% of the vote. Shortly after his defeat he called on supporters to throw their weight behind Fillon.Sarkozy crashed out of the primaries with only 20.6% of the vote. Shortly after his defeat he called on supporters to throw their weight behind Fillon.
Among those who responded to the call were former prime minister and presidential candidate Édouard Balladur, and Sarkozy supporters Brice Hortefeux and Rachida Dati, as well as fellow first-round loser Bruno Le Maire.Among those who responded to the call were former prime minister and presidential candidate Édouard Balladur, and Sarkozy supporters Brice Hortefeux and Rachida Dati, as well as fellow first-round loser Bruno Le Maire.
On the other hand, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, who came fourth in the primary has announced she will support Juppé, as have former prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin and former minister Valérie Pécresse.On the other hand, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, who came fourth in the primary has announced she will support Juppé, as have former prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin and former minister Valérie Pécresse.
The other first-round contenders, Jean-François Copé, former head of the centre-right party, and Jean-Frédéric Poisson of the Christian Democrat party, have yet to declare their second-round allegiance. François Bayrou, the president of the centrist party MoDem, has already called for his supporters to vote for Juppé.The other first-round contenders, Jean-François Copé, former head of the centre-right party, and Jean-Frédéric Poisson of the Christian Democrat party, have yet to declare their second-round allegiance. François Bayrou, the president of the centrist party MoDem, has already called for his supporters to vote for Juppé.
For French pollsters and politicians alike, Fillon’s massive victory came almost out of nowhere. Just a week ago, polls had him rising in popularity but still relegated to third place, behind Juppé and Sarkozy.For French pollsters and politicians alike, Fillon’s massive victory came almost out of nowhere. Just a week ago, polls had him rising in popularity but still relegated to third place, behind Juppé and Sarkozy.
But a strong performance in primary debates appears to have meant his programme, described as an “economic and social transformation” to the right of that proposed by the more centrist Juppé, cut through.But a strong performance in primary debates appears to have meant his programme, described as an “economic and social transformation” to the right of that proposed by the more centrist Juppé, cut through.
Fillon’s key measures include increasing the 35-hour maximum working week to a 39-hour week for public sector workers, gradually raising the retirement age to 65, reducing unemployment benefits, increasing VAT by two points and reducing direct taxes, as well as cutting 500,000 public sector jobs and making €100bn spending cuts to reduce the public debt and balance the country’s books.Fillon’s key measures include increasing the 35-hour maximum working week to a 39-hour week for public sector workers, gradually raising the retirement age to 65, reducing unemployment benefits, increasing VAT by two points and reducing direct taxes, as well as cutting 500,000 public sector jobs and making €100bn spending cuts to reduce the public debt and balance the country’s books.
A la une de Libé demain. https://t.co/Ubl5DuNwJy pic.twitter.com/mNVeBh0NBr
Juppé, who served as prime minister under President Jacques Chirac, has also pledged to do away with the 35-hour week in both public and private sectors, to increase the number of police and gendarmes to counter the terrorist threat, to create full employment by 2022, to make cuts in unemployment benefits and to reduce taxes, particularly for businesses, as well as cutting public spending.Juppé, who served as prime minister under President Jacques Chirac, has also pledged to do away with the 35-hour week in both public and private sectors, to increase the number of police and gendarmes to counter the terrorist threat, to create full employment by 2022, to make cuts in unemployment benefits and to reduce taxes, particularly for businesses, as well as cutting public spending.
Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, of the ruling Socialist party, which will hold its own primaries in the new year – most likely without the desperately unpopular President François Hollande – said: “The right has chosen a candidate who is well to the right, he’s the ultra candidate: ultra-conservative, ultra-liberal, ultra-anti-gay marriage, ultra-antisocial, he ticks all the boxes. It’s the ultra-right and it’s also a straight bridge with the Front National in terms of identity and the idea of the family.”Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, of the ruling Socialist party, which will hold its own primaries in the new year – most likely without the desperately unpopular President François Hollande – said: “The right has chosen a candidate who is well to the right, he’s the ultra candidate: ultra-conservative, ultra-liberal, ultra-anti-gay marriage, ultra-antisocial, he ticks all the boxes. It’s the ultra-right and it’s also a straight bridge with the Front National in terms of identity and the idea of the family.”
Although Sarkozy’s final speech on Sunday advised followers to vote for Fillon, an avowed Thatcherite, there is little love lost between the two men. Although Sarkozy’s final speech on Sunday advised followers to vote for Fillon there is little love lost between the two men.
In 2007, the then newly elected president, Sarkozy, appointed Fillon to the PM’s post as a gesture of gratitude for a successful campaign he had run. Those close to Sarkozy expected him to fire Fillon shortly afterwards.In 2007, the then newly elected president, Sarkozy, appointed Fillon to the PM’s post as a gesture of gratitude for a successful campaign he had run. Those close to Sarkozy expected him to fire Fillon shortly afterwards.
The dismissal never came. Not because Sarkozy had changed his mind, but because Fillon’s popularity rose with the voting public, enabling him to doggedly cling to his post. The president then spent his five years in office humiliating his colleague, referring to him publicly as an underling there to carry out presidential orders.The dismissal never came. Not because Sarkozy had changed his mind, but because Fillon’s popularity rose with the voting public, enabling him to doggedly cling to his post. The president then spent his five years in office humiliating his colleague, referring to him publicly as an underling there to carry out presidential orders.
On Sunday, Fillon served his revenge cold. “Fillon has signed Sarkozy’s political death warrant: this historical boomerang, a double surprise of the right and centre’s primary, will go down in history,” wrote Cécile Cornudet in Les Echos.On Sunday, Fillon served his revenge cold. “Fillon has signed Sarkozy’s political death warrant: this historical boomerang, a double surprise of the right and centre’s primary, will go down in history,” wrote Cécile Cornudet in Les Echos.
She added: “On paper, François Fillon had no chance of finishing ahead in the first round Sunday … but the voters’ wishing to play with the predictions went in his favour. History has shown us that nobody is ever dead in politics, and has added a nuance in this curious period where surprise has become the rule and when one can rise in the polls and reverse the table in less than three weeks.”She added: “On paper, François Fillon had no chance of finishing ahead in the first round Sunday … but the voters’ wishing to play with the predictions went in his favour. History has shown us that nobody is ever dead in politics, and has added a nuance in this curious period where surprise has become the rule and when one can rise in the polls and reverse the table in less than three weeks.”
The French press agreed it was the ultimate humiliation for the former president who was declared the victim of a wave of “anti-Sarkozism”. Libération described it as “the Fillon miracle”.The French press agreed it was the ultimate humiliation for the former president who was declared the victim of a wave of “anti-Sarkozism”. Libération described it as “the Fillon miracle”.
“Behind the right’s primary was hidden a referendum over the return to business for Nicolas Sarkozy, but also a stupefying majority in favour of François Fillon,” it wrote.“Behind the right’s primary was hidden a referendum over the return to business for Nicolas Sarkozy, but also a stupefying majority in favour of François Fillon,” it wrote.
Bruno Cautrès, of the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), said Sarkozy had failed to renew his political discourse.Bruno Cautrès, of the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), said Sarkozy had failed to renew his political discourse.
“He wanted to repeat the themes of his 2012 campaign, that’s to say, national identity, security and immigration, and we didn’t hear much about the economy, while François Fillon made this a priority in his primary campaign,” he told Le Monde.“He wanted to repeat the themes of his 2012 campaign, that’s to say, national identity, security and immigration, and we didn’t hear much about the economy, while François Fillon made this a priority in his primary campaign,” he told Le Monde.
“Even if one is never dead in politics, it does look like the end of his [Sarkozy’s] career. I can’t see him coming back to politics, but then again he’s a formidable political animal.“Even if one is never dead in politics, it does look like the end of his [Sarkozy’s] career. I can’t see him coming back to politics, but then again he’s a formidable political animal.
“Does the end of Nicolas Sarkozy signal the end of Sarkozyism, that’s the big question.”“Does the end of Nicolas Sarkozy signal the end of Sarkozyism, that’s the big question.”
Le Monde’s editorial said the second round would be a battle between the “Thatcher right and the Chirac right”. Fillon, it wrote, represented the “traditional right, solid, serious, provincial and Catholic, notable and well-brought-up”.Le Monde’s editorial said the second round would be a battle between the “Thatcher right and the Chirac right”. Fillon, it wrote, represented the “traditional right, solid, serious, provincial and Catholic, notable and well-brought-up”.
On the other side, it described Juppé as a successor to Chirac, under whom he served as prime minister – unlikely to cause a social revolution after provoking three weeks of mass demonstrations over his proposed social security reforms in 1995.On the other side, it described Juppé as a successor to Chirac, under whom he served as prime minister – unlikely to cause a social revolution after provoking three weeks of mass demonstrations over his proposed social security reforms in 1995.
“He is the upholder of a more moderate, more careful and, he says, more realistic right,” it said.“He is the upholder of a more moderate, more careful and, he says, more realistic right,” it said.