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| UK missing deficit target, as households grow gloomier about Brexit – as it happened | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| 5.48pm GMT | |
| 17:48 | |
| European shares climb as US markets hit new peaks | |
| Taking their cue from overnight records set on Wall Street, and boosted by further gains as US markets opened higher once more, European investors pushed shares higher once more. Despite dips in the oil price on renewed doubts about Opec agreeing output cuts next week, the prospect of a Trump boost to spending continued to support markets. | |
| In Europe, French and German markets were lifted once again by recent political developments - Francois Fillon’s victory in the French presidential primary and Angela Merkel standing for a fourth term as German chancellor. | |
| As for the UK, the pound weakened ahead of Wednesday’s Autumn Statement, but shares simply shrugged this off. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG,said: | |
| Ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn Statement sterling remains weak, dropping back from yesterday’s highs above $1.25. It is clear that the chancellor faces a difficult set of choices, with little wiggle room. Given the still murky path ahead for the UK economy, it is hard to see how Mr Hammond can do more than tinker around the edges. Markets will be watching closely for signs of concern about the economic outlook, which could see the pound weaken further against the dollar and the euro. | |
| The final scores showed: | |
| On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 0.12% at 18980, having earlier surged past 19,000 to 19014. | |
| On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow. | |
| 4.48pm GMT | 4.48pm GMT |
| 16:48 | 16:48 |
| Here’s an interesting chart showing the moves in various commodities following Donald Trump’s US election victory: | Here’s an interesting chart showing the moves in various commodities following Donald Trump’s US election victory: |
| Diverging fortunes across commodities after #Trump win. Oil has been a loser but #OPEC supply cut could change that: https://t.co/tawCcuTQwC pic.twitter.com/hL6FO3Ji2y | Diverging fortunes across commodities after #Trump win. Oil has been a loser but #OPEC supply cut could change that: https://t.co/tawCcuTQwC pic.twitter.com/hL6FO3Ji2y |
| 3.43pm GMT | 3.43pm GMT |
| 15:43 | 15:43 |
| Despite the better than expected eurozone consumer confidence figures, there is a chance the mood may not last, says economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank: | Despite the better than expected eurozone consumer confidence figures, there is a chance the mood may not last, says economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank: |
| Eurozone consumers have good reason to cheer in November. The oil price fell sharply at the start of the month and Eurozone stock prices have gained on the Trump victory. | Eurozone consumers have good reason to cheer in November. The oil price fell sharply at the start of the month and Eurozone stock prices have gained on the Trump victory. |
| The unemployment rate has been flat over the summer months, but the employment outlook has been improving recently as companies are indicating to be hiring at a faster pace in both services and industry. This seems to have humoured the Eurozone consumer, who had been cautious through the summer months awaiting a negative Brexit response that has turned out to be mild so far. | The unemployment rate has been flat over the summer months, but the employment outlook has been improving recently as companies are indicating to be hiring at a faster pace in both services and industry. This seems to have humoured the Eurozone consumer, who had been cautious through the summer months awaiting a negative Brexit response that has turned out to be mild so far. |
| The question is whether this momentum can continue to build in the coming months though. While some of the tailwind for the consumer is likely to be maintained, there are also factors that could bring the consumer down to earth. As inflation is likely to continue to increase in the coming months, real wages will probably take a hit before nominal wage growth edges up again. | The question is whether this momentum can continue to build in the coming months though. While some of the tailwind for the consumer is likely to be maintained, there are also factors that could bring the consumer down to earth. As inflation is likely to continue to increase in the coming months, real wages will probably take a hit before nominal wage growth edges up again. |
| And after a mild response to Brexit and the Trump election, will the Eurozone consumer respond more negatively to political uncertainty within the Eurozone? As a ‘no’ in the Italian referendum is ahead in the polls for the moment, it could well be that we will soon find out. | And after a mild response to Brexit and the Trump election, will the Eurozone consumer respond more negatively to political uncertainty within the Eurozone? As a ‘no’ in the Italian referendum is ahead in the polls for the moment, it could well be that we will soon find out. |
| 3.19pm GMT | 3.19pm GMT |
| 15:19 | 15:19 |
| The improved eurozone consumer confidence figures bode well for future growth in the region, says Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHG Markit: | The improved eurozone consumer confidence figures bode well for future growth in the region, says Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHG Markit: |
| An encouraging boost to Eurozone growth prospects as consumer confidence rose for a third month running in November - and markedly - to reach an 11-month high. Furthermore, consumer confidence is now at a very decent level compared to long-term norms. Consumers across the Eurozone hare currently benefiting from pretty decent fundamentals overall, notably including higher employment and still very low inflation. | An encouraging boost to Eurozone growth prospects as consumer confidence rose for a third month running in November - and markedly - to reach an 11-month high. Furthermore, consumer confidence is now at a very decent level compared to long-term norms. Consumers across the Eurozone hare currently benefiting from pretty decent fundamentals overall, notably including higher employment and still very low inflation. |
| This buoys hopes that the Eurozone is on course for improved GDP growth in the fourth quarter after expansion was limited to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in both the third and second quarters. We currently expect fourth-quarter GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and believe that 0.5% expansion is a genuine possibility. However, we have significant concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook for 2017 amid an uncertain political outlook. | This buoys hopes that the Eurozone is on course for improved GDP growth in the fourth quarter after expansion was limited to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in both the third and second quarters. We currently expect fourth-quarter GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and believe that 0.5% expansion is a genuine possibility. However, we have significant concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook for 2017 amid an uncertain political outlook. |
| While there are no details available, it seems reasonable suspect that the marked rise in Eurozone consumer confidence in November was due to improved perceptions on the economic situation and outlook. It is also likely that job concerns eased across the Eurozone after recently worsening. This was certainly true of both the Netherlands and Belgium, which have released their November surveys. Significantly, latest data showed that Eurozone unemployment dropped at an increased rate in September after labour markets had shown signs of faltering. | While there are no details available, it seems reasonable suspect that the marked rise in Eurozone consumer confidence in November was due to improved perceptions on the economic situation and outlook. It is also likely that job concerns eased across the Eurozone after recently worsening. This was certainly true of both the Netherlands and Belgium, which have released their November surveys. Significantly, latest data showed that Eurozone unemployment dropped at an increased rate in September after labour markets had shown signs of faltering. |
| Any improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence – particularly a marked increase – is to be welcomed as the consumer clearly is vital to Eurozone growth prospects. | Any improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence – particularly a marked increase – is to be welcomed as the consumer clearly is vital to Eurozone growth prospects. |
| 3.09pm GMT | 3.09pm GMT |
| 15:09 | 15:09 |
| Eurozone consumer confidence beats forecasts | Eurozone consumer confidence beats forecasts |
| Back with the eurozone, and consumer confidence rose by more than expected in November, despite the continuing uncertainties of Brexit. | Back with the eurozone, and consumer confidence rose by more than expected in November, despite the continuing uncertainties of Brexit. |
| The initial estimate for the eurozone rose by 1.9 points to -6.1 points, better than the forecast -7.8 points. | The initial estimate for the eurozone rose by 1.9 points to -6.1 points, better than the forecast -7.8 points. |
| In the European Union as a while, confidence edged up by 0.7 points to -5.8. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: | In the European Union as a while, confidence edged up by 0.7 points to -5.8. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: |
| EU consumer confidence hasn’t been in positive territory for nearly two decades so today’s negative reading is no surprise, but [ECB president] Mario Draghi will be pleased to see the above expectations data is at least moving in the right direction. | EU consumer confidence hasn’t been in positive territory for nearly two decades so today’s negative reading is no surprise, but [ECB president] Mario Draghi will be pleased to see the above expectations data is at least moving in the right direction. |
| Draghi deserves credit for maintaining a relatively stable eurozone economy at one of the most uncertain geopolitical times in memory. | Draghi deserves credit for maintaining a relatively stable eurozone economy at one of the most uncertain geopolitical times in memory. |
| With the cloud of Brexit hanging over the future direction of the eurozone, in addition to volatile elections and referendums on the horizon that could add further uncertainty, holding firm is likely just what the doctor ordered. | With the cloud of Brexit hanging over the future direction of the eurozone, in addition to volatile elections and referendums on the horizon that could add further uncertainty, holding firm is likely just what the doctor ordered. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.12pm GMT | at 3.12pm GMT |
| 3.04pm GMT | 3.04pm GMT |
| 15:04 | 15:04 |
| Some upbeat US economic news, with new home sales rising to their highest level in more than nine and a half years in October. | Some upbeat US economic news, with new home sales rising to their highest level in more than nine and a half years in October. |
| The National Association of Realtors said sales rose 2% to an annual rate of 5.6m, with September’s figure revised up from 5.47m to 5.49m. | The National Association of Realtors said sales rose 2% to an annual rate of 5.6m, with September’s figure revised up from 5.47m to 5.49m. |
| Analysts had expected a figure of 5.43m in October. | Analysts had expected a figure of 5.43m in October. |
| Meanwhile the Richmond Federal Reserve composite manufacturing index came in at +4 in November, compared to -4 in October. | Meanwhile the Richmond Federal Reserve composite manufacturing index came in at +4 in November, compared to -4 in October. |
| 2.52pm GMT | 2.52pm GMT |
| 14:52 | 14:52 |
| Maybe it will be louder at NYSE if/when Dow tops 20K. Some cheers just after Dow hit a new record. But nothing crazy. Now it's quiet again. | Maybe it will be louder at NYSE if/when Dow tops 20K. Some cheers just after Dow hit a new record. But nothing crazy. Now it's quiet again. |
| 2.34pm GMT | 2.34pm GMT |
| 14:34 | 14:34 |
| Wall Street hits new highs as Dow reaches 19,000 | Wall Street hits new highs as Dow reaches 19,000 |
| The surge in US markets - based on the recent strength of the oil price and hopes that Donald Trumps infrastructure plans will boost the economy - is continuing. | The surge in US markets - based on the recent strength of the oil price and hopes that Donald Trumps infrastructure plans will boost the economy - is continuing. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average has breached 19,000 for the first time, touching 19007, before slipping back to 18,991, up 0.18%. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average has breached 19,000 for the first time, touching 19007, before slipping back to 18,991, up 0.18%. |
| Both the Nasdaq Composite - up 0.37% - and the S&P 500 - 0.23% better - opened at new peaks. | Both the Nasdaq Composite - up 0.37% - and the S&P 500 - 0.23% better - opened at new peaks. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.35pm GMT | at 2.35pm GMT |
| 2.15pm GMT | 2.15pm GMT |
| 14:15 | 14:15 |
| Over in the eurozone, and some good news from Portugal: | Over in the eurozone, and some good news from Portugal: |
| #Portugal default probability drops as govt says made €2.1bn early repayment of IMF loans today that were due between Sep2018-Feb2019. pic.twitter.com/6ltC3wukIo | #Portugal default probability drops as govt says made €2.1bn early repayment of IMF loans today that were due between Sep2018-Feb2019. pic.twitter.com/6ltC3wukIo |
| 1.57pm GMT | 1.57pm GMT |
| 13:57 | 13:57 |
| Oil slips back on new Opec deal doubts | Oil slips back on new Opec deal doubts |
| The oil price has been rising in recent days on growing expectation that Opec might agree to limit output at its meeting next week, following an outline plan drawn up in Algiers in September. | The oil price has been rising in recent days on growing expectation that Opec might agree to limit output at its meeting next week, following an outline plan drawn up in Algiers in September. |
| But as is always the case, it does not take much to dent the mood. Reuters is reporting that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia have doubts about the proposed output cut. | But as is always the case, it does not take much to dent the mood. Reuters is reporting that Iran, Iraq and Indonesia have doubts about the proposed output cut. |
| So Brent crude, previously as high as $49.96m a barrel today is now down 0.59% at $48.61. And West Texas Intermediate is now down 0.56% at $47.97. | So Brent crude, previously as high as $49.96m a barrel today is now down 0.59% at $48.61. And West Texas Intermediate is now down 0.56% at $47.97. |
| Prices reacting negatively to this comment as Iran and Iraq are amongst the top producing nations by size & shows fractions remain https://t.co/BKowhNs9yN | Prices reacting negatively to this comment as Iran and Iraq are amongst the top producing nations by size & shows fractions remain https://t.co/BKowhNs9yN |
| 1.37pm GMT | 1.37pm GMT |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| A quick recap of the main points | A quick recap of the main points |
| 1) Britain is on track to blow past its budget forecasts for this year, despite cutting its borrowing in October by 25%. | 1) Britain is on track to blow past its budget forecasts for this year, despite cutting its borrowing in October by 25%. |
| The UK has now borrowed £48.6bn since April 2016, down from £54.2bn a year ago, but already close to the £55bn target for this current financial year (to March 2017). | The UK has now borrowed £48.6bn since April 2016, down from £54.2bn a year ago, but already close to the £55bn target for this current financial year (to March 2017). |
| Economists believe it could overshoot the target by £10bn or more, underlining the weak state of the public finances. | Economists believe it could overshoot the target by £10bn or more, underlining the weak state of the public finances. |
| The better news is that October’s deficit fell to £4.8bn, from £6.4bn a year ago, thanks to a rise in corporation tax receipts. | The better news is that October’s deficit fell to £4.8bn, from £6.4bn a year ago, thanks to a rise in corporation tax receipts. |
| 2) UK families are more pessimistic about the long-term impact of leaving the EU. A new survey showed that confidence fell across all ages and income groups in the last three months. | 2) UK families are more pessimistic about the long-term impact of leaving the EU. A new survey showed that confidence fell across all ages and income groups in the last three months. |
| 3) British factories have reported a pick-up in orders, after a summer slowdown. However, many are also planning to hike prices to cover the slump in the pound. | 3) British factories have reported a pick-up in orders, after a summer slowdown. However, many are also planning to hike prices to cover the slump in the pound. |
| 4) The pound’s decline since June has wiped out $1.5trn of UK wealth, according to Credit Suisse’s regular report: | 4) The pound’s decline since June has wiped out $1.5trn of UK wealth, according to Credit Suisse’s regular report: |
| Here is the world's skewed distribution of wealth in a single graphic https://t.co/o1d5e7plXk pic.twitter.com/mQr0opX6Jm | Here is the world's skewed distribution of wealth in a single graphic https://t.co/o1d5e7plXk pic.twitter.com/mQr0opX6Jm |