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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/nov/25/online-rush-for-bargains-kicks-off-black-friday-business-live
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| Version 5 | Version 6 |
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| Online rush for bargains kicks off Black Friday - business live | Online rush for bargains kicks off Black Friday - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.39am GMT | |
| 11:39 | |
| Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Markit, says the positive survey from the CBI suggests the economy is holding up in the fourth quarter, following growth of 0.5% in the third. | |
| He does, however, add a note of caution: | |
| A buoyant November CBI Distributive Trades survey points to consumers still splashing out in the fourth quarter, thereby boosting hopes that GDP growth will hold up well. Retailers will certainly be hoping that consumers’ willingness to spend holds up over the vital Christmas shopping period. | |
| The major problem facing the economy – and retailers in particular - is that it looks inevitable that the fundamentals for consumers will progressively weaken over the coming months with inflation rising markedly due to the weakened pound and companies likely increasingly looking to hold down pay to limit their total costs. The labour market also looks likely to come under mounting pressure despite its current resilience. | |
| In the near-term, there is the possibility that some consumers will bring forward purchases of big-ticket items in the belief that their prices are likely to rise appreciably over the coming months. | |
| 11.20am GMT | |
| 11:20 | |
| CBI: retail sales stronger than expected in November | |
| Retail sales picked up pace in November and were stronger than expected according to the CBI’s latest snapshot. | |
| Volumes increased at the fastest rate in more than a year in the 12 months to November, driven higher by sales of items including clothing, hardware and DIY. | |
| The distributive trades survey found that 42% of retailers reported a rise in sales compared with a year ago, while 16% said they were down. The resulting balance of +26% was the strongest since September 2015, and far stronger than the +26% forecast by City economists. | |
| Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s chief economist, said November was a “buoyant” month for sales. | |
| With the later onset of cold weather, shoppers stocking up their winter wardrobe has helped to boost high street sales. | |
| While we expect to see decent growth in the near term, retailers are keeping a close eye on price rises coming down the track and the impact on consumer spending.” | |
| 11.02am GMT | 11.02am GMT |
| 11:02 | 11:02 |
| John Lewis reports strong start to Black Friday | John Lewis reports strong start to Black Friday |
| John Lewis says it has seen strong demand from shoppers so far today. | |
| The busiest period was between 8am and 8.30am, as people shopped on their way into work. The department store chain is taking five orders every second online. | |
| There was a particular spike in transactions completed on mobile phones, up 21% between 8am and 9am. | There was a particular spike in transactions completed on mobile phones, up 21% between 8am and 9am. |
| Best-selling products: | Best-selling products: |
| Dino Rocos, lead director and operations director at John Lewis, said online sales had “exceeded expectations”. | Dino Rocos, lead director and operations director at John Lewis, said online sales had “exceeded expectations”. |
| Updated | |
| at 11.07am GMT | |
| 10.34am GMT | 10.34am GMT |
| 10:34 | 10:34 |
| Back to Black Friday. Jo Causon, chief executive of the Institute of Customer Service, comments on how the event is changing: | Back to Black Friday. Jo Causon, chief executive of the Institute of Customer Service, comments on how the event is changing: |
| Black Friday in its original form – the manic one-day, in-store shopping experience – has already changed significantly over the past three years. | Black Friday in its original form – the manic one-day, in-store shopping experience – has already changed significantly over the past three years. |
| We’re seeing the continuation of that evolution in 2016 with retailers extending their sales either side of Black Friday, and the term ‘Black Fiveday’ becoming more commonplace, as well as a continuation of the trend towards online. | We’re seeing the continuation of that evolution in 2016 with retailers extending their sales either side of Black Friday, and the term ‘Black Fiveday’ becoming more commonplace, as well as a continuation of the trend towards online. |
| 10.28am GMT | 10.28am GMT |
| 10:28 | 10:28 |
| European markets are subdued | European markets are subdued |
| Little movement in Europe’s major markets this morning. | Little movement in Europe’s major markets this morning. |
| With thin trading expected in the US following Thanksgiving, investors elsewhere appear to be taking a bit of a breather: | With thin trading expected in the US following Thanksgiving, investors elsewhere appear to be taking a bit of a breather: |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK: | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK: |
| With US markets likely to be in a thin post-Thanksgiving mood there appears to be little in the way of positive drivers for European markets this morning. | With US markets likely to be in a thin post-Thanksgiving mood there appears to be little in the way of positive drivers for European markets this morning. |
| This lack of interest has seen markets in Europe trading listlessly, weighed down on the one hand by weakness in the banking sector and a decline in oil prices ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. | This lack of interest has seen markets in Europe trading listlessly, weighed down on the one hand by weakness in the banking sector and a decline in oil prices ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. |
| 10.15am GMT | 10.15am GMT |
| 10:15 | 10:15 |
| James Knightley, senior UK economist at ING, says the second half of 2016 should prove rosy overall, but come 2017 the economy is likely to take a turn for the worse. | James Knightley, senior UK economist at ING, says the second half of 2016 should prove rosy overall, but come 2017 the economy is likely to take a turn for the worse. |
| This is a firm growth story that again shows the economy has weathered the Brexit storm very well so far. The data flow so far suggests that the fourth quarter should also post a decent growth rate, but we still expect a substantial slowdown in 2017. | This is a firm growth story that again shows the economy has weathered the Brexit storm very well so far. The data flow so far suggests that the fourth quarter should also post a decent growth rate, but we still expect a substantial slowdown in 2017. |
| Our main concern relates to a squeeze on household spending power brought about by a sharp pick-up in inflation that isn’t matched by wage increases. We also expect a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses as Brexit uncertainty kicks in and the political pressure rises once Article 50 is triggered. | Our main concern relates to a squeeze on household spending power brought about by a sharp pick-up in inflation that isn’t matched by wage increases. We also expect a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses as Brexit uncertainty kicks in and the political pressure rises once Article 50 is triggered. |
| 10.10am GMT | 10.10am GMT |
| 10:10 | 10:10 |
| Here is a breakdown of how different parts of the economy performed in the third quarter, compared with the second. It grew by 0.5% overall (and 2.3% annually). | Here is a breakdown of how different parts of the economy performed in the third quarter, compared with the second. It grew by 0.5% overall (and 2.3% annually). |
| The ONS has said there is no clear evidence yet to suggest the Brexit vote has had an impact on the economy. | The ONS has said there is no clear evidence yet to suggest the Brexit vote has had an impact on the economy. |
| 9.43am GMT | 9.43am GMT |
| 09:43 | 09:43 |
| Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS, has commented on this morning’s second estimate of growth. | Darren Morgan, head of GDP at the ONS, has commented on this morning’s second estimate of growth. |
| He makes the point that although business investment grew in Q3, most of those spending decisions will have been taken before the referendum, when the UK was expected to vote to remain in the EU: | He makes the point that although business investment grew in Q3, most of those spending decisions will have been taken before the referendum, when the UK was expected to vote to remain in the EU: |
| Investment by businesses held up well in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum, though it’s likely most of those investment decisions were taken before polling day. | Investment by businesses held up well in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum, though it’s likely most of those investment decisions were taken before polling day. |
| That, coupled with growing consumer spending fuelled by rising household income, and a strong performance in the dominant service industries, kept the economy expanding broadly in line with its historic average.” | That, coupled with growing consumer spending fuelled by rising household income, and a strong performance in the dominant service industries, kept the economy expanding broadly in line with its historic average.” |
| Rising household incomes powering UK economy for now. Will this continue if predictions this wk of prolonged squeeze on wages prove correct? https://t.co/XpscSFzpN3 | Rising household incomes powering UK economy for now. Will this continue if predictions this wk of prolonged squeeze on wages prove correct? https://t.co/XpscSFzpN3 |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.45am GMT | at 9.45am GMT |
| 9.33am GMT | 9.33am GMT |
| 09:33 | 09:33 |
| Breaking: UK growth confirmed at 0.5% in Q3 | Breaking: UK growth confirmed at 0.5% in Q3 |
| The Office for National Statistics has just published its second estimate of third-quarter growth, confirming a 0.5% increase in GDP. | The Office for National Statistics has just published its second estimate of third-quarter growth, confirming a 0.5% increase in GDP. |
| Business investment grew more than expected, by 0.9% over the quarter compared with expectations of 0.6%. It was a slight dip compared with business investment growth of 1% in the second quarter. | Business investment grew more than expected, by 0.9% over the quarter compared with expectations of 0.6%. It was a slight dip compared with business investment growth of 1% in the second quarter. |
| More soon. | More soon. |
| 9.21am GMT | 9.21am GMT |
| 09:21 | 09:21 |
| Black Friday is also a thing in Brazil apparently. | Black Friday is also a thing in Brazil apparently. |
| Photo evidence from São Paulo: | Photo evidence from São Paulo: |
| 9.04am GMT | 9.04am GMT |
| 09:04 | 09:04 |
| Also today... UK GDP and CBI retail survey | Also today... UK GDP and CBI retail survey |
| In other news, we have a couple of bits of interesting data coming up in the UK this morning. | In other news, we have a couple of bits of interesting data coming up in the UK this morning. |
| At 9.30 the Office for National Statistics will publish its second estimate of GDP in the third quarter. It is expected to confirm that the economy grew 0.5% between July and September, unchanged from the first estimate. | At 9.30 the Office for National Statistics will publish its second estimate of GDP in the third quarter. It is expected to confirm that the economy grew 0.5% between July and September, unchanged from the first estimate. |
| The ONS is also expected to confirm an annual rate of growth of 2.3% in the third quarter. | The ONS is also expected to confirm an annual rate of growth of 2.3% in the third quarter. |
| The second estimate will reveal new data on the spending side of the economy, and will offer a glimpse on firms’ willingness to spend in the months following the June Brexit vote. Business investment is expected to rise by 0.6% in the third quarter. | The second estimate will reveal new data on the spending side of the economy, and will offer a glimpse on firms’ willingness to spend in the months following the June Brexit vote. Business investment is expected to rise by 0.6% in the third quarter. |
| At 11am the CBI will release its distributive trades survey for November. It is expected to show a slowdown in retail sales growth compared with October. | At 11am the CBI will release its distributive trades survey for November. It is expected to show a slowdown in retail sales growth compared with October. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.08am GMT | at 9.08am GMT |