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For Democrats, a Last Faint Hope to Gain a Senate Seat For Democrats, a Last Faint Hope to Gain a Senate Seat
(2 days later)
NEW ORLEANS — The punk club was dark and packed, the lead singer of the band Hurray for the Riff Raff warming up a crowd of the young, the bearded and the well-tattooed. A little after 9 p.m., in came the headline act: a necktie-wearing cattle rancher, public service commissioner and United States Senate candidate from Elm Grove, La., who owns a half dozen hunting dogs and five times as many shotguns.NEW ORLEANS — The punk club was dark and packed, the lead singer of the band Hurray for the Riff Raff warming up a crowd of the young, the bearded and the well-tattooed. A little after 9 p.m., in came the headline act: a necktie-wearing cattle rancher, public service commissioner and United States Senate candidate from Elm Grove, La., who owns a half dozen hunting dogs and five times as many shotguns.
“I’m Foster Campbell, and I live on a farm in north Louisiana,” the candidate said to the crowd in an accent that was gravy-thick, drawing unexpectedly raucous cheers as he championed Democratic presidents for pushing Medicare, Social Security and the G.I. Bill of Rights. He ended by telling the crowd to come visit him in Washington: “I’ll buy you a hamburger.”“I’m Foster Campbell, and I live on a farm in north Louisiana,” the candidate said to the crowd in an accent that was gravy-thick, drawing unexpectedly raucous cheers as he championed Democratic presidents for pushing Medicare, Social Security and the G.I. Bill of Rights. He ended by telling the crowd to come visit him in Washington: “I’ll buy you a hamburger.”
Because of Louisiana’s curious election process — a nonpartisan, free-for-all primary on Nov. 8, leading to a runoff of the two top finishers on Dec. 10 — the race to replace Senator David Vitter, a Republican, is the last major national vote of the season. The stakes are lower than they might have been, with Republicans holding a majority of at least 51 seats in the Senate no matter what happens here.Because of Louisiana’s curious election process — a nonpartisan, free-for-all primary on Nov. 8, leading to a runoff of the two top finishers on Dec. 10 — the race to replace Senator David Vitter, a Republican, is the last major national vote of the season. The stakes are lower than they might have been, with Republicans holding a majority of at least 51 seats in the Senate no matter what happens here.
But Mr. Campbell, 69, a rural populist in the corporate-knocking political style of Huey and Earl Long, is seen by Democrats as a potentially critical brick in a wall against a Trump agenda and the last hope in a dismal year. It is not a sturdy hope. Democratic and Republican operatives here have trouble seeing how Mr. Campbell could overtake his opponent, John N. Kennedy, a similarly folksy talker who is the Oxford-educated Republican state treasurer of Louisiana.But Mr. Campbell, 69, a rural populist in the corporate-knocking political style of Huey and Earl Long, is seen by Democrats as a potentially critical brick in a wall against a Trump agenda and the last hope in a dismal year. It is not a sturdy hope. Democratic and Republican operatives here have trouble seeing how Mr. Campbell could overtake his opponent, John N. Kennedy, a similarly folksy talker who is the Oxford-educated Republican state treasurer of Louisiana.
For the entire primary, Mr. Kennedy led among the 24 candidates, a field noted mostly for the fact that it included David Duke, the former imperial wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, who came in a distant seventh. On Nov. 8, Donald J. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a 20-point margin here, and Mr. Kennedy came in a comfortable first in the Senate primary with a quarter of the vote; Mr. Campbell’s second-place finish was more than seven points behind. Combining the votes of just the top three Republican candidates in the primary would reach a majority.For the entire primary, Mr. Kennedy led among the 24 candidates, a field noted mostly for the fact that it included David Duke, the former imperial wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, who came in a distant seventh. On Nov. 8, Donald J. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a 20-point margin here, and Mr. Kennedy came in a comfortable first in the Senate primary with a quarter of the vote; Mr. Campbell’s second-place finish was more than seven points behind. Combining the votes of just the top three Republican candidates in the primary would reach a majority.
“Honestly it doesn’t look like Campbell has much of a path to victory,” said Gregory C. Rigamer, a pollster in New Orleans who has done analysis for a “super PAC” supporting Mr. Kennedy.“Honestly it doesn’t look like Campbell has much of a path to victory,” said Gregory C. Rigamer, a pollster in New Orleans who has done analysis for a “super PAC” supporting Mr. Kennedy.
Still, Mr. Campbell does have one thing on his side: panicked urgency among Democrats nationwide.Still, Mr. Campbell does have one thing on his side: panicked urgency among Democrats nationwide.
“At this moment I don’t think it’s crazy to feel like our entire democratic institution is potentially under threat,” said David Skeits, 37, an actor in New York, who donated several hundred dollars to the Campbell campaign after reading about it on Facebook. Mr. Skeits knows that Mr. Campbell does not see eye to eye with him on some issues he considers important, like transgender rights or reproductive choice. But at the moment, Mr. Skeits is not alone in seeing full agreement as an unaffordable luxury. “At this moment I don’t think it’s crazy to feel like our entire democratic institution is potentially under threat,” said David Skeist, 37, an actor in New York, who donated several hundred dollars to the Campbell campaign after reading about it on Facebook. Mr. Skeist knows that Mr. Campbell does not see eye to eye with him on some issues he considers important, like transgender rights or reproductive choice. But at the moment, Mr. Skeist is not alone in seeing full agreement as an unaffordable luxury.
The actress Rosie O’Donnell has highlighted the Campbell campaign on Twitter. The actor John Leguizamo urged people to donate, as did the comedian Patton Oswalt, who reposted an appeal for campaign donations with the words, “everyone please.”The actress Rosie O’Donnell has highlighted the Campbell campaign on Twitter. The actor John Leguizamo urged people to donate, as did the comedian Patton Oswalt, who reposted an appeal for campaign donations with the words, “everyone please.”
Mr. Campbell spoke at the punk club rally of “over a million dollars” in donations, made and pledged to his campaign in just a few days. The money has been accompanied by offers of assistance, including from a group of dejected Clinton backers in Portland, Ore., who will be working the phones for Mr. Campbell in the coming days.Mr. Campbell spoke at the punk club rally of “over a million dollars” in donations, made and pledged to his campaign in just a few days. The money has been accompanied by offers of assistance, including from a group of dejected Clinton backers in Portland, Ore., who will be working the phones for Mr. Campbell in the coming days.
“I think people feel pretty helpless,” said Susan Feldman, 68, who helped organize the Oregon group. “It’s sort of like, ‘Look, there’s still a little bit of something that we can do.’”“I think people feel pretty helpless,” said Susan Feldman, 68, who helped organize the Oregon group. “It’s sort of like, ‘Look, there’s still a little bit of something that we can do.’”
As with practically everything else in politics this year, the dynamic in Louisiana would baffle a time traveler from the not-too-distant past. Mr. Kennedy began his political career as a Democrat who supported abortion rights; he supported John Kerry for president only 13 years ago. But he moved right, the party moved left, and like most white politicians in the Deep South, he eventually switched parties. Now known for his high-profile attacks against government spending, Mr. Kennedy describes himself as a rock-ribbed conservative, as different from Mr. Campbell “as gumbo and grits.”As with practically everything else in politics this year, the dynamic in Louisiana would baffle a time traveler from the not-too-distant past. Mr. Kennedy began his political career as a Democrat who supported abortion rights; he supported John Kerry for president only 13 years ago. But he moved right, the party moved left, and like most white politicians in the Deep South, he eventually switched parties. Now known for his high-profile attacks against government spending, Mr. Kennedy describes himself as a rock-ribbed conservative, as different from Mr. Campbell “as gumbo and grits.”
Mr. Kennedy’s previous left-of-center history has not been ignored by Mr. Campbell, a man who, according to Donald G. Kelly, a former Democratic state senator, “probably owns more guns than half the people in the state of Louisiana.” That each candidate has been accused of being liberal would mystify anyone from New York City.Mr. Kennedy’s previous left-of-center history has not been ignored by Mr. Campbell, a man who, according to Donald G. Kelly, a former Democratic state senator, “probably owns more guns than half the people in the state of Louisiana.” That each candidate has been accused of being liberal would mystify anyone from New York City.
“Look, I know them both,” said Elliott Stonecipher, a political consultant from Shreveport, La., who first met Mr. Campbell when they were both public schoolteachers in the 1970s. “The three of us could sit around in a living room and talk politics and as long as Foster Campbell doesn’t have a chance to attack oil and gas, there’s not going to be a smidgen of difference.”“Look, I know them both,” said Elliott Stonecipher, a political consultant from Shreveport, La., who first met Mr. Campbell when they were both public schoolteachers in the 1970s. “The three of us could sit around in a living room and talk politics and as long as Foster Campbell doesn’t have a chance to attack oil and gas, there’s not going to be a smidgen of difference.”
That is a bit of an overstatement: Mr. Campbell was alone among the major Senate candidates here talking openly about human-caused climate change; he also supports an increase in the minimum wage and promises to vote against any repeal of the Affordable Care Act.That is a bit of an overstatement: Mr. Campbell was alone among the major Senate candidates here talking openly about human-caused climate change; he also supports an increase in the minimum wage and promises to vote against any repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
But Mr. Campbell’s fondness for bashing the oil and gas companies, along with the railroads, the tobacco companies, the payday loan companies and a long list of other corporate targets, makes him an interesting figure in a party suddenly trying to figure out how to regain support among the rural working class.But Mr. Campbell’s fondness for bashing the oil and gas companies, along with the railroads, the tobacco companies, the payday loan companies and a long list of other corporate targets, makes him an interesting figure in a party suddenly trying to figure out how to regain support among the rural working class.
“I see all the great things the Democratic Party has done in the past: Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, Truman,” Mr. Campbell said in an interview in Baton Rouge, La., which ranged in topic from rural phone lines to his yearning for a processing tax on oil and gas. “It concerns me when country people all across America vote for Republicans, and by and large, they don’t help those people,” he said.“I see all the great things the Democratic Party has done in the past: Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, Truman,” Mr. Campbell said in an interview in Baton Rouge, La., which ranged in topic from rural phone lines to his yearning for a processing tax on oil and gas. “It concerns me when country people all across America vote for Republicans, and by and large, they don’t help those people,” he said.
On certain matters, like border security, trade deals and a desire for big infrastructure projects, Mr. Campbell does not sound terribly different from the president-elect. His sworn enemy is not Trumpism per se, but the business-cozy politics of either party: corporate subsidies, tax loopholes and the tendency of “tap dancing politicians” to do the will of big companies. The news of Mrs. Clinton’s speeches to investment banks made him “sick to my stomach.”On certain matters, like border security, trade deals and a desire for big infrastructure projects, Mr. Campbell does not sound terribly different from the president-elect. His sworn enemy is not Trumpism per se, but the business-cozy politics of either party: corporate subsidies, tax loopholes and the tendency of “tap dancing politicians” to do the will of big companies. The news of Mrs. Clinton’s speeches to investment banks made him “sick to my stomach.”
That may not be precisely what his new, Trump-dreading fan base wants to hear. But he is a Democrat and math is math.That may not be precisely what his new, Trump-dreading fan base wants to hear. But he is a Democrat and math is math.
“O.K., so he’s an older white man from northern Louisiana,” Ms. Feldman said. He’s not for everything she wants. But she liked what she read of his views on equal pay legislation and climate change. And at the moment, “It is, in some ways, ‘What are the choices?’”“O.K., so he’s an older white man from northern Louisiana,” Ms. Feldman said. He’s not for everything she wants. But she liked what she read of his views on equal pay legislation and climate change. And at the moment, “It is, in some ways, ‘What are the choices?’”